Hereby I will prove how the realty boomers arguments are false.

What are the boomers arguments?

1.) Buy today, houses always increase in value in the long run.
WRONG. House prices cannot increase more than incomes in the long run. This is obvious if you think about it. If house prices go up more than people can afford to pay, buying stops, like it has stopped now.
Even Warren Buffett have pointed out that houses don't increase in intrinsic value. Unless there's a bubble or a crash, house prices simply reflect current salaries and interest rates. If a house is 100 years old, it's value in sheltering you is exactly the same as it was 100 years ago. Then came the maintenance as the house didn't renovate itself. It also has taxes, and insurance - costs that always increase and never go away. The price of the house went up about as much as salaries went up.
To put this is simple perspective, vegetable were costing Rs.5-6/kg when 5 digit salary was a rarity.
Today, the prices have gone up by about 4 times but so have the salaries. So, sounds very much like the reasoning people use now when they talk about how much their father's house appreciated "in the long run" without considering that salaries rose a proportional amount.

2.) Renting is just wastage of money.
WRONG. As said before renting is now much cheaper per month than owning. If you don't rent, you either:

* Have a mortgage, in which case you are throwing away money on interest, tax, insurance, maintenance, costs that increase forever.
* Own outright, in which case you are throwing away the extra income you could get by converting your house to cash, investing in bonds, and renting a similar place to live for much less money. This extra income is sufficient for emergency expenses,retirement etc.

Either way, owners lose much more money every month than renters and that's assuming prices don't correct to very high level & everything is smooth in the economy.

3.) As a renter, you won't have any money left as you will spend them on vacations,cars & hence won't have equity/savings etc.
WRONG. Equity is just money. Renters are actually in a better position to build equity/savings through investing in anything but housing. Renters can get rich much faster than owners, just by investing in conservative stocks & bonds.

* Owners are losing every month by paying much more for interest than they would pay for rent. The tax deduction does not come close to making owing competitive with renting.
* Owners must pay taxes simply to own a house. That is not true of stocks, bonds, or any other asset that can build equity/savings. Only houses are such a guaranteed drain on cash.
* Owners must insure a house, but not most other investments.
* Owners must pay to repair a house, but not a stock or a bond.
* Owners lose their money as house prices reduce. The EMI's remain constant in spite of reduction in rates. At the end of loan tenure, they would have paid almost twice than that of current renters who will buy at logical rates. Keep interest rates in mind. Most of the EMI is not principal amount but interest.

4.) There are great tax advantages to owning a house.
WRONG. Many people believe you can just reduce your income tax by the amount you pay in interest, but they are wrong. Buyers may not deduct interest from income tax; they deduct interest from taxable income. And even then, the tax advantage is not significant compared to the large monthly loss from owning.

If you don't own a house but want to live in one, your choice is to rent a house or rent money to buy a house. To rent money is to take out a loan. A mortgage is a money-rental agreement. House renters take no risk at all, but money-renting owners take on the huge risk of falling house prices, as well as all the costs of repairs, insurance, property taxes, etc.

5.) RE is based on local factors, it's not a national phenomenon. RE of Delhi-NCR,Bangalore & rest of the cities has nothing to do with Pune RE.
WRONG. Lending rates remain the same throughout the country. ALL loans are harder to get. This will drive prices down everywhere.

6.) A rental house provides good income. So, you can rent if you have purchased as investment.
WRONG. Rental houses provide very poor income in hyped areas and certainly cannot cover mortgage payments. Remember there is almost 300% difference between EMIs & rent for the same house.

It's pointless to do the work of being a landlord if you can make more money with no risk, no work, and no state income tax by investing in assured good returns bond.

7.) If owning is a loss in monthly cash flow, but appreciation will make up for it.
WRONG. Appreciation is negative. Prices are going down. It only adds to the injury of already high EMI's.

8.) As soon as prices drop a little, the number of buyers on the sidelines willing to jump back in increases.
WRONG. There are very few buyers left, and those who do want to buy will be limited by increasing difficulty of borrowing now that many house owners are near bankrupt as they don't save anything at the end of the month due to high EMI's.
No one has to buy, but there will be more and more people who have no choice but to sell as their payments rise. That will keep driving prices downward for a long time.

9.) House prices never fall atleast in Pune.
WRONG. If you see the RE scenario of 1996, prices crashed by 50% & took a whole 7+ years to recover.
Exact 1996 scenario may not be there today but strong correction is inevitable across the city.

10.) House prices don't fall to zero like stock prices, so it's safer to invest in real estate.
WRONG. House prices won't be zero, but the equity or the principal amount you paid can be zero or even negative. What you will pay as EMIs later in actual terms is not for the principal amount but only the interest as house prices dip. So, you will be only serving the bank.

11.) Prices will soften gradually, won't crash immediately.
WRONG. Prices are falling off a cliff. No one knows exactly what will happen, but it looks like prices will continue to fall for long time. These are just more manipulation of buyer emotions, to get them to buy even while prices are falling.

12.) The bubble prices were driven by supply and demand alone.
WRONG. Prices were driven by low interest rates and risky loans & good returns for investors in initial phases of boom in 2004-05.
Prices went up, interest rates went up & buyers savings went down. So prices are violating the most basic assumptions about supply and demand.

13.) There is lack of land.
WRONG. Ample of land is available & continue to be even in future in Pune. Sales volume are down. Even in Japan (small country with less land), prices went down. Current prices here are the same as that of 23 years ago. If we really had a housing shortage, there would not be so many vacant rentals.

14.) If you don't own, you'll live in a cheap neighborhood later.
WRONG. For the any given monthly payment, you can rent a much better house than you can buy. Renters live better, not worse. There are downsides to renting, such as being told to move at the end of your lease, or having your rent raised, but since there are thousands of vacant rentals, you can take your pick and be quite happy renting during the crash. There are similar but worse problems for owners anyway, such as being fired and losing your house, or having your interest rate and property taxes adjust upward. Remember, property taxes are forever.

15.) There's always someone predicting a real estate crash.
TRUE, yet irrelevant. There are very real crashes every decade or so. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

16.) Local incomes justify the high prices.
WRONG. The mortgage should be more than your 3 years earning. It is much higher today. Most are already in danger/red zone.

17.) You have to live somewhere.
CORRECT. But that doesn't mean you should waste your life savings on a bad investment. You can live in a better house for much less money by renting during the down slide in RE.

18.) It's not a house, it's a home.
WRONG. Wherever one lives in it is home, be it apartment, condo, bungalow , mansion or house. Calling a house a "home" is a manipulation of your emotions for profit.

19.) If you don't buy now, you'll never get another chance.
WRONG. History proves otherwise.
Here's a beautiful quote from a analyst:-
"The real issue isn't whether you will be stuck being a renter all your life, she says. Its whether you'll get so scared about being shut out that you'll buy at the market's peak and be stuck in a property you can't afford or sell."

20.) It would take major economic recession or a major earthquake that wipes out this area in order for the price to fall by over 50%.
WRONG. Even today, if the prices fall by 50%, there will still be very few people who can buy at this levels due to uncertainty in jobs & most importantly high EMIs. Also, look at the rental rates for equivalent houses. Which loss per month is larger? EMI or rent?

contd....
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  • My comments in blue.
    Originally Posted by rsatitkar

    Following points will explain what I mean by a balanced view:
    1. Pune RE has not seen deep decline in prices but at the same time % increase in prices since Early 2008 onwards is not great (20-30% which means CAGR 8-10%)
    Disagree. I personally found prices either at same levels or lower than 2008 levels in east-pune. So it means -ve return of 8-10%

    Prices are not going to go high further. Chances of them correcting by 10-15% in nearest future are good. Hence better to wait.
    Agree that a correction (30%) will make few people waiting on side-line to commit on buying. I feel correction is due within a year.
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by rsatitkar
    Good that will lessen loand on current poor infrastructure and it will start looking better.

    Wondering why Ahemadabad is not attracting many IT companies. Prices are so cheap, infra is good. Why do they still stick to Pune insptie of exhorbitant prices & poor infra?

    There can be few one off examples but as a trend still Ahemadabad is not seen as an IT city.

    If you look more closely, the "IT" is concentrated in areas of good education and with people speaking good English. Hence, Ahmd scores low on this regard -- you dont have good engineering instuties, and the number of engineers coming out is not too high.

    Lot of people still are interested in business in Ahmd, and the home loan is only around 30%...in Pune, 80-90% of the homes purchased are on home loans.

    So, people have money ONLY buy there, and most of them just pay off in cash. This helps both the buyers and the consumers.This is the reason I have been looking for a flat for "investment" in AHmd, good city, good infra, lots of malls --only problem is --weather and cosmo politan culture.
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by pcpune
    If you look more closely, the "IT" is concentrated in areas of good education and with people speaking good English. Hence, Ahmd scores low on this regard -- you dont have good engineering instuties, and the number of engineers coming out is not too high.

    Lot of people still are interested in business in Ahmd, and the home loan is only around 30%...in Pune, 80-90% of the homes purchased are on home loans.

    So, people have money ONLY buy there, and most of them just pay off in cash. This helps both the buyers and the consumers.This is the reason I have been looking for a flat for "investment" in AHmd, good city, good infra, lots of malls --only problem is --weather and cosmo politan culture.


    Thanks pcpune. It really answered many of my questions.
    CommentQuote

  • 1. Pune RE has not seen deep decline in prices but at the same time % increase in prices since Early 2008 onwards is not great (20-30% which means CAGR 8-10%)
    Disagree. I personally found prices either at same levels or lower than 2008 levels in east-pune. So it means -ve return of 8-10%



    Well experiences will vary from project to project and more from area to area. My exp is from West Pune in areas like Sinhagad Road.

    New Apartments on Sun City road were selling between 3000-3500 psf in early 2008 (Jan), Now they are selling at 4000-4500 psf.

    New Apartments in Dhayari (PMC limit) were selling at 2300-2500 psf. Now they are selling at 2900-3300 psf.

    My observations in this regard is that areas which are highly driven by demand from IT people (e.g PS, Wakad,Baner, Bavdhan,Kharadi) see large fluctuations. Where as other alreas (Kothrud, Sinhagad Road, Bibwewadi, Satara Road, Katraj etc) see lesser fluctuations in RE prices.
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by rsatitkar
    I have seen people on exterimities (Bulls & Bears) on this thread. But what we need a balanced & realistic view.

    Following points will explain what I mean by a balanced view:

    1. Pune RE has not seen deep decline in prices but at the same time % increase in prices since Early 2008 onwards is not great (20-30% which means CAGR 8-10%)
    2. There is not so strong support for RE prices at current levels , hence prices increasing further to yeild profits on investments seems very difficult.
    3. To support the prices market needs genuine buyers & not just investors. In today's date investor pool in any apartment is ~50% or more. If all of them start selling their apartments there will be substantial supply in the market. This will be in addition to new apartments from builders. This will naturally keep a check on prices.
    4. At the same time however bad Pune infra may be, one thing holds true is Pune has ample jobs still getting created in IT, mfg, education & allied fields. Hence there is always a good pool of genuine buyers. Bears pls do not give one off examples of insutries moving out of Pune. I am talking about overall picture of job market in Pune & which is still good.
    5. Salaries of people have gone up by 50% or more as compared to 200-4-2005 salaries. So surely we can not expect those prices (1000-1500 psf) now.
    6. All in all as urrent prices are bloated and they can not grow further much. There is no striong support to these prices because of the affordability of genuine buyers is diminishing.
    7. Investors though can hold for couple of years they can not hold endlessly.
    8. At the same time when prices start coming down genuine buyers waiting for opportunity will start getting in (once there is a correction ~15-20%). Here market will start getting a support. Prices may continue to go down further but for that also there is a limit which can be max 30-35% in my opinion.
    9. So in today's date if one want to investin Pune RE, I would say it's not good time. Investing in RE by taking a loan in completely illogical in current situation. If one wants to buy for self use, then also market is bloated & it' advisabel to wait for a year or so. Prices are not going to go high further. Chances of them correcting by 10-15% in nearest future are good. Hence better to wait.
    10. These are my views, which I think are balanced:) People can differ:)


    That is a very good summary of the current situation in Pune, and quite well analyzed. Thanks.
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by rsatitkar
    I have seen people on exterimities (Bulls & Bears) on this thread. But what we need a balanced & realistic view.

    Following points will explain what I mean by a balanced view:

    1. Pune RE has not seen deep decline in prices but at the same time % increase in prices since Early 2008 onwards is not great (20-30% which means CAGR 8-10%)
    2. There is not so strong support for RE prices at current levels , hence prices increasing further to yeild profits on investments seems very difficult.
    3. To support the prices market needs genuine buyers & not just investors. In today's date investor pool in any apartment is ~50% or more. If all of them start selling their apartments there will be substantial supply in the market. This will be in addition to new apartments from builders. This will naturally keep a check on prices.
    4. At the same time however bad Pune infra may be, one thing holds true is Pune has ample jobs still getting created in IT, mfg, education & allied fields. Hence there is always a good pool of genuine buyers. Bears pls do not give one off examples of insutries moving out of Pune. I am talking about overall picture of job market in Pune & which is still good.
    5. Salaries of people have gone up by 50% or more as compared to 200-4-2005 salaries. So surely we can not expect those prices (1000-1500 psf) now.
    6. All in all as urrent prices are bloated and they can not grow further much. There is no striong support to these prices because of the affordability of genuine buyers is diminishing.
    7. Investors though can hold for couple of years they can not hold endlessly.
    8. At the same time when prices start coming down genuine buyers waiting for opportunity will start getting in (once there is a correction ~15-20%). Here market will start getting a support. Prices may continue to go down further but for that also there is a limit which can be max 30-35% in my opinion.
    9. So in today's date if one want to investin Pune RE, I would say it's not good time. Investing in RE by taking a loan in completely illogical in current situation. If one wants to buy for self use, then also market is bloated & it' advisabel to wait for a year or so. Prices are not going to go high further. Chances of them correcting by 10-15% in nearest future are good. Hence better to wait.
    10. These are my views, which I think are balanced:) People can differ:)


    Stephen Roach, Non-Executive Chairman, Morgan Stanley Asia

    he thinks ... :)

    What do you make of the Reserve Bank of India’s move to curb overheating in realty? What would be its impact, according to you?

    The RBI does seem fairly determined to bring the overheated Indian property market under better control through administrative measures and that is an encouraging sign. But I suspect there is a lot more to do.




    http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/interviews/RBI-move-to-curb-overheating-in-realty-not-enough-Stephen-Roach-Morgan-Stanley-Asia/articleshow/6906765.cms
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by frugality
    Stephen Roach, Non-Executive Chairman, Morgan Stanley Asia

    he thinks ... :)

    What do you make of the Reserve Bank of India’s move to curb overheating in realty? What would be its impact, according to you?

    The RBI does seem fairly determined to bring the overheated Indian property market under better control through administrative measures and that is an encouraging sign. But I suspect there is a lot more to do.




    http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/interviews/RBI-move-to-curb-overheating-in-realty-not-enough-Stephen-Roach-Morgan-Stanley-Asia/articleshow/6906765.cms


    RBI has always been proactive in curbing RE. It tried in 2006 itself, but could not suceed. This time it probably will.

    I came across this which I had written 6 months ago elsewhere:



    You are quoting the crazy builder rule - the more the builder raises prices, the more people flock to buy.

    Conversely (and perversely!!!!!) if he reduces prices or keeps it constant, people stop buying.

    It is herd psychology. He sells a plot for 1000, then raises prices by 200. Guys who bought boast to their friends that they made 20% in 2 months.

    Friends dont want to be left behind and rush to buy. And the chakravyuh keeps on turning.

    When external factors like business slow down comes, the wheel stops turning and stays still for 5-7 years. Then it comes back to life.
    -------

    Right now, the wheel is not turning, it is spinning like crazy. RBI will not be able to do anything to stop it. Only a major stock and bond crash of global reach can stop it.

    What RBI can do is flag the bubble a year or two before it finally bursts. Going by past RBI calling in 2006 and brsting in 2008, current bubble will probably pop in 2012.
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by rsatitkar
    I have seen people on exterimities (Bulls & Bears) on this thread. But what we need a balanced & realistic view.

    Following points will explain what I mean by a balanced view:

    1. Pune RE has not seen deep decline in prices but at the same time % increase in prices since Early 2008 onwards is not great (20-30% which means CAGR 8-10%)
    2. There is not so strong support for RE prices at current levels , hence prices increasing further to yeild profits on investments seems very difficult.
    3. To support the prices market needs genuine buyers & not just investors. In today's date investor pool in any apartment is ~50% or more. If all of them start selling their apartments there will be substantial supply in the market. This will be in addition to new apartments from builders. This will naturally keep a check on prices.
    4. At the same time however bad Pune infra may be, one thing holds true is Pune has ample jobs still getting created in IT, mfg, education & allied fields. Hence there is always a good pool of genuine buyers. Bears pls do not give one off examples of insutries moving out of Pune. I am talking about overall picture of job market in Pune & which is still good.
    5. Salaries of people have gone up by 50% or more as compared to 200-4-2005 salaries. So surely we can not expect those prices (1000-1500 psf) now.
    6. All in all as urrent prices are bloated and they can not grow further much. There is no striong support to these prices because of the affordability of genuine buyers is diminishing.
    7. Investors though can hold for couple of years they can not hold endlessly.
    8. At the same time when prices start coming down genuine buyers waiting for opportunity will start getting in (once there is a correction ~15-20%). Here market will start getting a support. Prices may continue to go down further but for that also there is a limit which can be max 30-35% in my opinion.
    9. So in today's date if one want to investin Pune RE, I would say it's not good time. Investing in RE by taking a loan in completely illogical in current situation. If one wants to buy for self use, then also market is bloated & it' advisabel to wait for a year or so. Prices are not going to go high further. Chances of them correcting by 10-15% in nearest future are good. Hence better to wait.
    10. These are my views, which I think are balanced:) People can differ:)

    +1. These are indeed good views & agree with what you have said. Also note that what is not good for investors in most cases is not good for end users as well. As far as jobs are concerned, please differentiate between PMC, PCMC, Chakan, Talegaon, Ranjangaon etc. Post-Hinjewadi, nothing big has come up because of PMC. VAT, ST & hike in interest rates alongwith 80% cap on total amount have made flats even more expensive than earlier even if prices remain the same. I agree it is better to wait for now as you rightly said & buy when RE rates becomes more logical & sustainable.

    *PS:- IF your post would have been posted by some so called bears, many bulls who are silent on your post would have disagreed with it strongly:D.
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by realacres
    +1. These are indeed good views & agree with what you have said. Also note that what is not good for investors in most cases is not good for end users as well. As far as jobs are concerned, please differentiate between PMC, PCMC, Chakan, Talegaon, Ranjangaon etc. Post-Hinjewadi, nothing big has come up because of PMC. VAT, ST & hike in interest rates alongwith 80% cap on total amount have made flats even more expensive than earlier even if prices remain the same. I agree it is better to wait for now as you rightly said & buy when RE rates becomes more logical & sustainable.

    *PS:- IF your post would have been posted by some so called bears, many bulls who are silent on your post would have disagreed with it strongly:D.


    Thanks Real. Thoudh I do not call myself as a bear or bull, but according to me my views are little more inclined towards bears :)
    CommentQuote
  • Something for the bears who love to see builders in problems

    Originally Posted by rsatitkar
    Thanks Real. Thoudh I do not call myself as a bear or bull, but according to me my views are little more inclined towards bears :)


    http://www.indianrealtynews.com/real-estate-india/rbi-tightens-provisioning-norms-for-1090-loans-builders-face-cancellation.html
    CommentQuote
  • documents required for passing/ sanctioning plan from PMC

    Hi, can anybody give me a list of documents required for passing plan from p thanksmc as i am planning to construct an apartment on my plot.
    CommentQuote
  • High realty prices spell dim Diwali for city’s homebuyers

    The sharply rising prices of property have dampened the Diwali mood for homebuyers in the city. Diwali, considered an auspicious period in the Hindu calendar, usually sees people rushing to buy property and gold to celebrate the festival of lights. However, this year, the situation seems gloomy and homebuyers seem unable to honour tradition. “People have no incentive to buy in the current scenario as realty rates are very high,” said Pranab Dutta, vice chairman and managing director, Knight Frank India Limited, a leading real estate consultancy company.

    “Homebuyers are waiting for prices to come down,” he added. Liasas Foras, in its survey, has indicated that the rates of flats have increased by at least three times in the last five years while there has not been a corresponding increase in pay packages of homebuyers.

    Read complete story here:-

    http://www.hindustantimes.com/High-realty-prices-spell-dim-Diwali-for-city-s-homebuyers/Article1-621972.aspx

    * Hey, now we can write GOLD in one word :).
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by realacres
    * Hey, now we can write GOLD in one word :).


    Gold is nowadays getting recognition not only from investor community but from this Form Admins too...
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  • Sale of flats declining in first half of this fiscal: Study

    New Delhi, Oct 6 : There has been a huge decline in the sale of flats and apartments across seven major cities of 25 major real estate developers in the first half of 2010-11, said a study conducted by an industry lobby.

    However the second half of the year is likely to be positive due to the growth in the infrastructure sector, the study added.

    "The first half of 2010-11 witnessed a steep decline in the sale of flats and apartments. However revival in the real estate activities driven by infrastructure growth can accelerate both in the residential as well as commercial spaces," said D. S. Rawat, secretary general of the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India (Assocham).

    According to the property dealers of seven metro cities -- Delhi and NCR, Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai, Bangalore, Hyderabad and Pune, the sale of flats has gone down in first half by over 40 percent as compared to the last year.

    The study showed that the developers increased the prices of their existing projects. The prices of 2 BHK (bed room, hall, kitchen) apartments, which cost Rs. 30 lakh, has been hiked to Rs. 45 lakh.

    The rise in the prices of steel and cement has also increased price of the property. During the last six months the steel prices had gone up by 30 percent, and cement prices increased by 15 percent.(IANS)

    http://www.topnews.in/law/sale-flats-declining-first-half-fiscal-study-230697
    CommentQuote
  • Vitthalwadi-NH4 road work goes on without NoC

    Another classic eg. of depending on DP road. The following news will be a huge setback for buyers at Sun Planet & newly launched Soham Riveria on this DP road. Don't know how people trust builders' words & buy based on DP & PROPOSED? :o. Another good informative article from IE :).

    Pune
    RTI says PMC constructing road alongside Mutha without green signal from irrigation dept
    Sun Nov 14 2010

    It’s been six months and the Pune Municipal Corporation (PMC) has been constructing a road for which it has not received a green signal. The civic authorities have been constructing a 2.3-km road alongside Mutha river between Vitthalwadi and Mumbai-Bangalore Highway (NH-4) without having obtained a No Objection Certificate (NOC) from the irrigation department — a prerequisite for starting the project. The fact was revealed in an RTI application filed by a group of city-based activists.

    “The project is being carried out by the PMC and an NoC from Maharashtra Krishna Valley Development Corporation (MKVDC) that comes under the irrigation department is a prerequisite for starting the project as it is adjacent to the riverbed.

    Responses by the PMC to our RTI applications reveal that the civic authorities had applied for an NOC for the project from MKVDC six months after the work order for the project was issued. The NOC is significant as the road, which is in proximity of the river can affect the water flow causing floods during heavy rains on the downstream side towards the city area,” said Sarang Yadvadkar, activist and river ecology expert.

    The work order for the construction of the road was issued by the civic authorities on March 8 this year while the application for NoC, which was obtained under RTI, is dated September 23, over six months after the work started. “Ideally, the NoC should have come first and then the work order. We have received the request from PMC for NoC but we have not issued it as they have not submitted the supporting documents. For instance, documents such as the dimensions of river cross section in the area, location plan of the project have not been submitted to the irrigation department,” said S N Bolbhat, executive engineer, Khadakwasla Irrigation Division, Pune.

    Earlier, activists had objected against the PMC axing trees on the path of the road. The PMC had proposed to cut 61 trees and replant 135 to which activists had objected. “The construction of this road has been halted of late due to election code of conduct. But there is no guarantee that norms would not be violated once the work resumes,” said Vinod Jain, another activist.

    While Vivek Kharwadkar, additional city engineer, road, PMC could not be reached, V R Patil, superintendent engineer, Projects, PMC, said they will look into the matter.


    The link for the same & pic of the DP road is as attached below:-

    http://www.expressindia.com/latest-news/vitthalwadinh4-road-work-goes-on-without-noc/710913/
    Attachments:
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