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Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

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Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

Last updated: November 1 2016
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  • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

    Mkts are fine but real estate is in trouble: Deepak Parekh

    Deepak Parekh, chairman, HDFC is not among the worried men who are circumspect of the rising markets. Not just yet. Speaking to CNBC-TV18, the country's most famous banker said the market is not sitting on a bubble, nor will the flood of initial public offerings (IPOs) take away liquidity from the system.
    He is however, very concerned about the commercial real estate space on account of over-supply. "There is a huge glut in commercial real estate sector and prices will come down soon as there are no takers," he said adding developers will have to reduce commercial real-estate prices atleast by 10% to get rid of their stock.

    Read full story here...
    http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/bus...fc_489502.html

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    • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

      Originally posted by wiseman View Post
      Munish,

      Overall you are correct that people over 40 (or let me say, older people) are less risky (assuming that their earning years are decreasing) and therefore they would like to be safe about it.

      But this is a theory which is based on salaried people. If you look at business people (especially successful business people, like Real is pointing to like NRN, etc), they are not only moneyed but also have a balanced approach to risk, calculating it and entering only when the calculations are in their favor (while it looks risky to us, they do their calculations).

      For example, when I was salaried I took less risks and invested almost all my money into companies that had large amounts of cash (earned through business over long periods of time) and were leaders in their business continuing to throw out large amounts of cash. This has paid off very handsomely as pcpune has been stating.

      Today (well over 40) I take tremendous risks with 5% of my portfolio (while stashing the remaining in stocks bought long ago, RE bought long ago and gol.d (bought some time ago).

      Throughout life risks must be taken but with calculation as to what are the potential loss Vs gain (risk-return ratio). If your calculations are correct, you will do very well. If not, you lose 5% of your wealth (and can still live with it). In either case you learn some valuable lessons which could stand you in good stead when you get into the next risky venture!!!

      cheers
      Wiseman,

      I agreed to what real said and i also agree to what you are saying.

      See the point is that not everyone is going to be as smart/informative as u guys when it comes to managing their money. There is more than 90% salaried janta who doesnt figure out how to make money from money and they keep asking whether bank deposit is better or stocks i was one of them till a couple of years back, though i am still a novice.

      U only mentioned few days back that in our country most people do not know how to exit from stock market.

      So basically u dont believe in debt investment
      MM

      Comment


      • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

        Guys, its a great intellectual forum..
        You all are really intelligent, experienced....
        I found, all your thoughts can be understood by reading just few of the posts..

        But, I have a very genuine request to all of you..
        Its ok to advice on the economy, RE sector, markets, buying/renting, when to marry.., how to become successful in life, etc.

        But, I noticed there are many threads which are completely unanswered or just a few comments without fulfilling a genuine need..

        Most of the people come here when they decide to buy.. and they are looking for good projects/ builders.. I know few of them get answered.. but, mostly the forum disappoints in that front..

        I know few senior folks are very knowledgeable about the good locations, projects, prizes etc. Please utilize your bandwidth in helping those queries more..

        Comment


        • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

          Originally posted by tpshere View Post

          Most of the people come here when they decide to buy.. and they are looking for good projects/ builders.. I know few of them get answered.. but, mostly the forum disappoints in that front..

          I know few senior folks are very knowledgeable about the good locations, projects, prizes etc. Please utilize your bandwidth in helping those queries more..
          Then you have wrong expectations my friend... Name of this thread is "Builders & RE Bulls Theory Proved Wrong.", so you cannot expect buying advise on this thread anyway... ..

          Besides, this is not a RE sales portal, but it is a discussion forum which simply discusses the projects. Since you can always get the positive points about any project from the builder (or from RK's blog ), you dont need this forum to tell you that, but instead this forum highlights the negative aspects of the projects so now you have the full picture.

          Based on this information, you (and only you) can make a decision. Once you make a decision either way, you are encouraged to share your experiences on the forum as a guideline for other members.

          Do not look at this forum as a one stop portal giving a list of projects to buy. There are many other sites who do that already. I am on this forum for almost an year now and believe that the folks are giving extremely good information on many aspects in RE.

          Comment


          • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

            I'm not talking about this thread... I'm talking about "indianrealesateforum" in general.
            I see lot of (hundreds) of threads which are unanswered..
            Most of the experienced guys can help people who are genuine buyes..

            Your username is also "punebuyer"

            And, I think about 90% visit this forum are genuine buyes.. include 'guests'

            Comment


            • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

              Originally posted by tpshere View Post
              Guys, its a great intellectual forum..
              You all are really intelligent, experienced....
              I found, all your thoughts can be understood by reading just few of the posts..

              But, I have a very genuine request to all of you..
              Its ok to advice on the economy, RE sector, markets, buying/renting, when to marry.., how to become successful in life, etc.

              But, I noticed there are many threads which are completely unanswered or just a few comments without fulfilling a genuine need..

              Most of the people come here when they decide to buy.. and they are looking for good projects/ builders.. I know few of them get answered.. but, mostly the forum disappoints in that front..

              I know few senior folks are very knowledgeable about the good locations, projects, prizes etc. Please utilize your bandwidth in helping those queries more..
              If u start paying me i will utilize all my little knowledge to enlighten u issue is i cant take any money from u since this forum is pure discussion and yes its also to have a bit of fun If most of people come here only to buy then whats the point of having this forum dont u have better B2B sites to give u enough, and yes thats the very reason why threads remain unanswered.
              MM

              Comment


              • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                BTW- Rules strictly say buying and selling thru this forum is strictly prohibited
                MM

                Comment


                • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                  Originally posted by tpshere View Post
                  Your username is also "punebuyer"
                  Its actually 'punerebuyer' which is an irony itself ... you have rightly mentioned it. I was someone who was planning to buy in RE and like many 'guests' came to this forum searching for good properties. If you see my earlier posts, i had discussions some properties which I personally visited or my friends visited.

                  But after reading / contributing the discussions, i have put my decision on hold. This is my own decision. That's exactly what i am telling you also, that folks can come here and read the messages and can take their decisions.

                  Comment


                  • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                    Originally posted by RAJESHP View Post
                    The argument continues. The bottom line is:

                    Point I want to make is, real reason why one buys house is NOT because of problems with renting, but because he/she believes that prices are not going to fall tomorrow. Anyone disagree?
                    Do we marry because we think we won't find a better girl? :-)

                    I bought my house because I saw tremendous value in it. It satisfied all my requirements at that time and at a price that I could "afford". I don't care if the price in my area goes up or down as its a notional gain/loss. Although I know in the long run the prices will go up. they might not outclass index but who cares as I am enjoying my asset too.

                    Originally posted by wiseman View Post
                    rocknroll,
                    pcpune has hit the nail on its head in terms of what exactly the "seniors" are reccommending.

                    Its descended into a "buy" Vs "Rent" argument (and that lead us nowhere). This is what we are saying ...

                    In life, taking rigid positions like "NEVER" do this or "ALWAYS" do that is not necessarily beneficial to oneself! Everything changes in life. Can you afford to NOT change (IF SITUATION DEMANDS)?
                    I do agree that buy vs rent argument won't take us anywhere. The reason I wrote my initial post was that this argument was going one sided... rent rent rent. As if buying was a crime.

                    I absolutely agree with your thoughts on rigid positions as well. Hence everyone should not stick to "No Buying" position. The decision should be taken on case by case basis.

                    Why is decision to rent is considered practical while buying is an emotional one? Who are we to pass the judgment?
                    Last edited by rocknrolls; October 7 2010, 10:52 PM.

                    Comment


                    • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                      Why Rent is need

                      Originally posted by rocknrolls View Post
                      Do we marry because we think we won't find a better girl? :-)

                      I bought my house because I saw tremendous value in it. It satisfied all my requirements at that time and at a price that I could "afford". I don't care if the price in my area goes up or down as its a notional gain/loss. Although I know in the long run the prices will go up. they might not outclass index but who cares as I am enjoying my asset too.



                      I do agree that buy vs rent argument won't take us anywhere. The reason I wrote my initial post was that this argument was going one sided... rent rent rent. As if buying was a crime.

                      I absolutely agree with your thoughts on rigid positions as well. Hence everyone should not stick to "No Buying" position. The decision should be taken on case by case basis.

                      Why is decision to rent is considered practical while buying is an emotional one? Who are we to pass the judgment?

                      you are right that you have bought it ....
                      but answer me
                      now whats so special about Pune that its even Costlier then Better cities like Banglore, Hyderabad, Noida ??? they dipped well in 2009 and even now cheaper
                      and in real value terms its costlier then Most of the developed Countries RE?
                      5 yrs price have raised 3 times......
                      now do you expect to double in some time so in all it will be 6 times in 8 yrs ???
                      or 9 times in 10 yrs ????
                      That could have been possible but certain events worldwide are not supporting that...
                      This rise of 2005-08 was due to expacted 6th Pay commission coming in 2010 ???
                      What bought this rise?
                      Investors .... So prior to 2005-08 there were no investors in India putting money in RE right....?
                      why they put money firsthand ??

                      IT and Service sector Growth Right or wrong ?

                      take the period of 2009 - 14 ... do you expect to grow even further to beat the current Price/Running cost?
                      You expect pays to cross that of Developed world ? Only then this 9 times price rise is justified in 10 yrs ...

                      look at this below chart of US RE price rise ...
                      Doubling in 7 yrs only to fall back in 1 yr.....
                      in all these last 2 - 3 yrs(2006 - 2007) its very tempting to buy only to learn later that you are bankrupt....

                      So every Buyer is Uneasy as we are now in Phase of (2006 - 2007 US raise) blind to every reality.
                      He is getting pressurized by himself as his decision not to buy and wait for dip is at risk ....
                      This Stimulus sooner or later is going to fade...

                      -US States in huge Deficit
                      -US commercial RE default (bigger then sub prime at 2 - 3 Trillion)
                      -Job scenario is as is, rather more cuts in line.
                      -Europe Risk
                      This matters more for Pune etc rather then for Indore ....

                      Renting is not Choice but need of the Hour in such turbulence ....

                      And few months back I wrote in Post that Environmental vagaries are going to increase and floods will be a big issue for Pune ..
                      when Pak Flooding happened and now it was just 2 days of rain and PMC tops house is flooded.... what about conman man
                      Check you Pune Mirror of last few days .....

                      God know about the quality of stuff builders have used ... Emerald city wall ... The poor quality ones will depreciate the most....
                      and that picture will become clear in 6 - 8 yrs ...
                      The current 10 yr old lot is far better in Quality ....
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