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- I am little hopeful of RE prices going *really* going down enough to help domestic buyers :(
By 2011, RE guys *might have* made sales to answer banks knocking on their doors.
Although whats happening in RE market today is sheer looting(IMO). Your project is under construction; you have nto laid pipe line for water yet, you don't show your customer (prospective buyer) site but show sample flat, your sales people just sit silent in front of prospective buyer expecting him/her to ask questions RATHER sales people proactively marketing project, non negotiable tone...I wish there was union of IT professionals like there is builder group who could collectively boycott these bullies.CommentQuote0Flag
One more Bank cutting Home loan rate...so till March'2010 no home loan rate hike would be expected from any of the Bank...similarly I think RE prices will remain firm till that time
One more Bank cutting Home loan rate...so till March'2010 no home loan rate hike would be expected from any of the Bank...similarly I think RE prices will remain firm till that timeCommentQuote0Flag
- Low ROI for deposits, low deposits
If the deposit rates have been cut, it means one thing:- Funds are going to get expensive for banks coz people will now invest in other options like bonds, post, NHAI etc. Low deposits means less amount for banks to lend, leading to further tightening of credit.CommentQuote0Flag
I think Bank reduce deposit rate when they have lots of money lying in their kitty which will lead to high NPA for them, so once Deposit rate has gone down,so also credit rate as well both retail (Home loan, car loan & personal loan) & even institutional credit (SME loan etc)....Same has been seen in the mkt as well...Car loans are still available from Bank at meager 8-9% that was the reason for record sell in auto sector in last quat....
So, I think otherwise...Loans rate will further going down or remain at the same rate for at least till march '2010 (same has been seen as most of the PSU banks announced their 8% loan scheme extended till march'2010 & even private banks Axis banks also offering home loan at around 8-8.5%)...I feel now senior ppls started misleading ppls with their so called financial knowledge....CommentQuote0Flag
- Fixed deposite rates like to go up -
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Fixed-Deposit-rates-likely-to-go-up/articleshow/5208062.cmsHowever, ="http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Features/Financial-Times/Fixed-Deposit-rates-likely-to-go-up/articleshow/5208062.cms?curpg=2#"]home loan borrowers may escape from the pressures of high borrowing costs as the RBI is understood to be looking at supporting the sector. There are reports that banks are likely to increase the allocation towards priority sector lending and property loans could ="http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Features/Financial-Times/Fixed-Deposit-rates-likely-to-go-up/articleshow/5208062.cms?curpg=2#"]account for a bigger chunk. That could negate the ill effects of rising borrowing costs and should help the customer base in a big way.
NRIs interested in the real estate sector -
Senioer folks on this forum shared their knowledges and feedback based on their observation. This might have somehow influenced the thinking of some buyers. But you also need to consider that, even they can not predict the situation and fate. Till Diwali eveyone was thinking that, they will be price drop as not much sell transaction happened.
But banks came to resuce to provide breather to buyers by extending the cheap loan and breather in a way to builders( as they can also hold the price and buyers will definately come in next 4 month).
My perspective on this complete scenario is that, As job scene is looking optimistic and so the salary, there will be increase in potential of buyers, now it depends what route(Rent/Own Home/Own Car) most of the buyers take. Banks is holding the cheap loan till March 10, it may of may not extend it beyond. If it extends the cheap loan beyond Mar10 then there won't be any price fall and by the time bank removes this cheap loan, there will not be any change in price.
Currently banks are providing the cheap loans by compensating on deposit rates which they can easily continue till end of 2010. And there will not be situation like 2007 nor 2008 in coming years. Prices will be almost stagnant and even if there is price change, it will be based and limited to the locality and project.
At the end of the day, It all depeneds on invidijual buyer who earns and spends for his purpose. He should be felt comfortable with rates, quality of home. Buyers also need to consider the new Tax Code which will remove the home loan premium component from exemption. It will affect us in muach larger extent.CommentQuote0Flag
Have to say that this is the most ridiculous bit of economic reasoning I have ever heard!CommentQuote0FlagMoney where your mouth is!
Come on guys, let's vote on this one:
RE by end of 2010, a year from now:
1. Razer: +20% :)CommentQuote0Flag2. Venkat
2010 March +20% from today
2010 Dec 0% to -10% from todayCommentQuote0Flag
Dont understand your post at all. Less home loan rate is favourable for RE market.
Its different story that today affordability and risk of loosing the principal is what people are
worried for more than what interest they pay.CommentQuote0FlagOriginally Posted by Venkytalks2. Venkat
2010 March +20% from today
2010 Dec 0% to -10% from today
Difficult to put dates, but If asked, I would put the same.
I will take it further.
End of 2011 I expect -50% min. of todays rate.
again, Irrespective where is stock market and home loan rates at that time.CommentQuote0Flag
The point that I understand is that the bank might have excess liquidity i.e. they have more funds than they can give out and so do not need deposits. Hence the decrease in deposit rates. Once the liquidity is drained (could be because of any reason) then the rate would be increased again.
So in a way the bank is trying to manage the liquidity themselves. I might be missing some more points here. Does anyone agree or disagree with the above? BTW where is the article that states that Deposit rates have been cut?
And also since last year deposit rates have gone down almost 2 percent points.....
The article below states that deposit rates might go up.
VKCommentQuote0FlagOriginally Posted by tpshereI can surely say, its most infomative forum about the new RE developements in Pune. A genuine buyer, can get tips for locations, rates, builder reputation, alternate opportunities, negotiated rates etc. Great job guys!! Thanks to 'Senior Members'...
Its OK to be speculative for 'investors', but for Genuine Buyers it is most confusing thing.
Agreed I too use this forum from getting useful information about Builders manipulative ways that i need to be aware of. Opinions about properties and quality of constructions. Good Areas and problems in those areas.
As long as buying is concerned I look at what people have to say but the decision will completely depend on what I feel about the market.
From your post it seems you badly need a house for personal use. In that case you are the best judge of your situation (This is completely a personal choice and depends on every individual).
If I had the resources I would negotiate a good deal and then settle in without considering if the prices are going to go up or down as it is for my personal end use. Even I want to buy an apartment but I will not take a huge loan for that. But if it is for investing / speculation I would not buy at this point in time. :)
BTW I do not regard myself as senior member!! ;)
I have taken an Education loan before and i know an outstanding loan remains in you mind all the time. Personally the feeling is not good. People are different and some people are perfectly fine with a loan. Just because there are 70 people out of 100 who are "HAPPY" taking loans and buying houses... I will not ne pushed to take a huge loan (i mention huge loan.. a small loan is still fine) to buy a house. As i know FOR ME the Mental agony of having a huge Loan on my head is worse that the Mental satisfaction of owning a house. So even if the prices are going to go up it does not make sense for me. Till that time i am RENTALLY and MENTALLY satisfied. :p
Just my 2 paise. :D
VKCommentQuote0FlagI suppose this forum can be used as reference, as sometimes people do provide constructive feedback. Sometimes you will find builders agent starting thread and creating false +/- points and stressing +ve out of -ves. The way we do in interview when interviewer asks us to identify -ve points about ourselves.
Some how I think usually people who got good deal they may not come back and take pain of writing their opinion.
If I am really looking for house for living purpose then I would just go ahead and buy it instead of timing market. Only thing is instead of taking huge loans I would take minimal risk. As there will be another opportunites as overall market is volatile.
About economic reasoning i dont thing anyone is wrong coz thats what everyone does, nobody can be for sure predict future. Otherwise we would have predicted 2000 and 08 falls. Those economic cycles are resultant of numerous factors.
Let me share classice example. Peter Schiff is hedge fund guy he was predicting correctly in 2007 that US mortgage/subprime market is going to crash. And he was shouting on all major news channels. Everyone was writing him off on CNBC and FOX news. And he was not ignored by just TV analyst but people like Arthur Laffer (Economic advisor to Regan). You can find these clips on youtube. BUT ironically same guy was down more than 60% IN 08-09, he did beat market but in wrong way. Becuase he knew what is going to happen but he did not find way out, he was just bullish on commodities.
So reasoning given by people should not be blamed as that could be one of the factor who knows.
Dont underestimate economics its not 1+1=2, it can be 3 also.
Disclaimer: Mine will be lowest IQ on economics :D. Coz most of my investments have gone sour.CommentQuote0FlagMore of my vague predictions continuing from above (Rajesh, my long term view is different from yours. But I also believe that nobody can predict the future and nobody should take a call on the market for more than 6 months and if you are wise, not even that)
2010 March +20% from today
2010 Dec 0% to -10% from today
2011 Dec 0 to +10% from today
2012 Dec +30% from today
2015 Dec +200% from today
2020 Dec +astronomical figure from today
Basically I am predicting runaway essentials inflation, luxury deflation, a repeat of Depression for USA and a repeat of 1980s for India when Delhi RE buyers made a killing.
I am also predicting long term rental inflation of enormous proportions.
I would buy multiple small 2BHK (essential) than big 3-4 BHK (luxury). Nobody will have money for luxury in tough times.
Housing still is a necessity at some levels after all. At lower price points, there will be price inelasticity.
Those who have to rent 10 years from now and who are retired are going to cry, they will have to leave the metros.