Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

Collapse
X
Collapse

Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

Last updated: November 1 2016
12768 | Posts
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

    Definitely

    Originally posted by lazybone007 View Post
    Banks ask Mumbai builders to return Rs 6,000 cr

    Owed 6,000 crore, banks cut off funds to Mumbai builders - The Times of India

    Is this an indicator of things to come?

    Lazy,

    Back in Oct/Nov 2009, when the Stimulus-driven economy was making the markets rise, I was stating that this was the last opportunity for builders to cut prices and move inventory. This was because it was quite obvious that, once stimulus ended worldwide, there would be a worse recession simply because India and other economies could not get their growth story going again without stimulus (largely because of too much debt on their heads) and this debt would HAVE to be reduced for the bull period to start again.

    According to me all along, 2011 would be the start of the next recession/depression and 2012 would likely be the worst part.

    Well, at that time I was accused of being too pessimistic and bearish, etc, etc. But now its starting to return again and this time the builders have nowhere to go as they approach their perfect storm of too much inventory built on too much debt with too high prices and buyers starting to hold back and wait. With banks now unlikely to rollover debt and other sources of funds like IPOs PEs, etc drying up due the the increased risk perception of RE at its high levels of debt and high prices, the sh** will hit the fan very quickly going forward.

    Enjoy and profit.

    cheers

    Comment


    • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

      I soo hope that Jethmalani wins the case and the list is made Public and SC forces the government to get the money from Swiss banks back to India..... Pranav Mukherjee (& party) is anyways making fool of India. In past too he was Ambani's personal agent trying to settle issues for him

      Comment


      • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

        Originally posted by am_pune
        [I]

        Hey Khabari, it will be gud, if you can tell us the builder's name.


        Aloma , Aloma

        One of my close friend who have booked flat there, is pursuing me to book a flat. He told me about the discount, but I asked him to get 25% discount then only I can afford it.

        Comment


        • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

          NRIs Returning Back….

          The US, S&P 500 is very close to 1300. The wise money is returning back to US & the offshore boom is cooling down.

          In 2009, Mr. Ravi was very happy with worsening situation in US. With improving economy in US now others will be happy & ……..

          Comment


          • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

            Originally posted by aditi sharma View Post
            They even have info of one ex-PM.
            Twitter

            "Swiss bank account details of a former Prime Minister of India included in the details handed over to WikiLeaks today "
            I would bet my hard earned 10 Rs that it is Devegowda

            Comment


            • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

              Originally posted by wiseman View Post
              Lazy,

              Back in Oct/Nov 2009, when the Stimulus-driven economy was making the markets rise, I was stating that this was the last opportunity for builders to cut prices and move inventory. This was because it was quite obvious that, once stimulus ended worldwide, there would be a worse recession simply because India and other economies could not get their growth story going again without stimulus (largely because of too much debt on their heads) and this debt would HAVE to be reduced for the bull period to start again.

              According to me all along, 2011 would be the start of the next recession/depression and 2012 would likely be the worst part.

              Well, at that time I was accused of being too pessimistic and bearish, etc, etc. But now its starting to return again and this time the builders have nowhere to go as they approach their perfect storm of too much inventory built on too much debt with too high prices and buyers starting to hold back and wait. With banks now unlikely to rollover debt and other sources of funds like IPOs PEs, etc drying up due the the increased risk perception of RE at its high levels of debt and high prices, the sh** will hit the fan very quickly going forward.

              Enjoy and profit.

              cheers
              I feel there is not much to cheer about if people are expecting prices to fall due to another recession. The alternate point to note is that if recession hits again, it will also affect the business and in turn place uncertainties on your jobs. Salary hikes will not be there as well. So on one hand where the prices of flats reduce, so will your risk taking ability. Banks will not give loans so easily. So, Unless one has ample cash available, buying a home will still be a distant dream. This is just my feeling, I am not an economist.

              Comment


              • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                2003-07 boom repeated but on steroids ...

                Originally posted by khbarilal View Post
                The US, S&P 500 is very close to 1300. The wise money is returning back to US & the offshore boom is cooling down.

                In 2009, Mr. Ravi was very happy with worsening situation in US. With improving economy in US now others will be happy & ……..

                khb,

                This Western "improving" economy is based on a one-way road to ruin. The 2.5% GDP growth (which amounts to $350 Billion) has been achieved with a minimum additional $2 Trillion of debt loaded on. This means that for every $1 of GDP growth around $6 of debt is being created. Any person or company doing this would have been bankrupted long ago! And we are not including the US Govt secretly emptying the cash money deposited by middle class workers into Social Security which makes case worse. Besides around 70% of this GDP growth is from consumption and not production, which means the money does not add to surplus but is eaten away. Who is to earn back this debt and repay it? Extreme danger in this kind of economic policy.

                At this rate, within a few years the debt load will become unbearable and economy will go into a downward spiral with a huge debt load making it nearly impossible for it to recover under the old currency regime. The only way out is to severely devalue currency and allow bond holders to take a massive loss.

                The Bond market will not allow this to happen by raising rates rapidly to such heights that interest on debt will kill the economy from anothe r direction.

                And the situation in Emerging markets is not much different with high inflation based on massive stimulus in India and China already leading to high interest rates.

                This coupled with stagnating salaries and risks of job losses is creating uncertainlty and doubt in people's minds which makes them postpone large debt-enabled investments.

                Not a very good sign, the direction the world is currently taking.

                But you are very right about the s/w boom cooling. From the very beginning I have been consistently saying that the export sector is rapidly losing its edge. Especially if you consider imposing taxes on this segment (why should a $50 billion industry still get tax sops which was meant to get a tiny export industry off the ground back in the 80s and 90s especially when we desperately needed FX?) there are many domestically focused sectors which ar doing much better. Considering that the developed countries are going to see more contraction it will get worse before it gets better for this sector.

                I repeat that the LEaders of the business are solely responsible for their crass greed and myopia in using the precious decade 2000-2010 in going DOWN the value chain (BPO) to make short-term profits while losing a golden opportunity to go UP the value chain. We will suffer in the coming decade due to this stupidity.

                Lazy, when our older generations used to be cautious in new acquisitions and did it largely in cash, there was a reason for it. Today, after blindly apeing the west in debt-driven binges of buying cars every 2 years and taking on 2 and 3 homes, the old lessons are coming home to roost. Not yet too late to gather cash before going in for buying large assets.

                cheers
                Last edited by wiseman; January 19 2011, 10:50 AM.

                Comment


                • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                  Originally posted by realacres View Post
                  morons like Rahul Gandhi should be sent to Spain to his GF...hey his GF was Spanish, don't know current one. Btw, Rahul made a PRIVATE visit to London last week...hmmm.
                  Are you sure it is GF and not BF?

                  When you are around 40 and still unmarried, such questions are bound to arise in people's mind.

                  Wiseman, any real recovery of US economy is bound to be accompanied by inflation and rising rates. I expect it to come after a while, maybe 2013/14. Currently US is well into a phony recovery (India has already gone through the phony recovery and seen a bull run in stocks to boot).

                  However, I expect US to weather this turbulent period much better than India.

                  Something will have to give way somewhere. My personal bet is on Rupee devaluation viv-a-vis dollar, but I am only 50% confident.
                  Last edited by Venkytalks; January 19 2011, 04:46 PM.
                  Venky (Please read watch a or before posting)

                  Comment


                  • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                    Ain't his gf Venezuelan??

                    Originally posted by realacres View Post
                    The Indian Govt has already recieved over 1000 names who have money stashed up abroad. Even Supreme Court has asked the central govt to publish the names, but Congress led UPA isn't. It is the BJP & its MP & senior lawyer Ram Jethmalani who is fighting against these corrupt chaps. This has put Congress on backfoot as not adhering to Supreme Court (SC) will spell more trouble & one can easily guess why Congress-NCP is opposed to releasing the names. Now Congress says don't politicise the issue. Man, speaking for the country means politicizing the issue?? These rotten-heads should be kicked out to Italy & morons like Rahul Gandhi should be sent to Spain to his GF...hey his GF was Spanish, don't know current one. Btw, Rahul made a PRIVATE visit to London last week...hmmm.

                    Comment


                    • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                      Originally posted by Venkytalks View Post
                      Are you sure it is GF and not BF?

                      When you are around 40 and still unmarried, such questions are bound to arise in people's mind.
                      does this question comes to your mind for even Atal Bihari Vajpayee?

                      constructive criticism is not same as irrational loathing.

                      Comment

                      Tags: None
                      Have any questions or thoughts about this?
                      Working...
                      X