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Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

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Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

Last updated: November 1 2016
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  • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

    Threats that job market faces

    Originally posted by boldm28 View Post
    the so called respectable Indian outsourcing companies are not following US rules and are getting hammered .. by USCIS -- visa authority in the US

    Infosys tries to settle H1-B visa case out of court - CNBC-TV18 -

    This particular issue is a long-standing one & IT companies are getting hit at both ends for this. On the Indian side they are facing the accusation that exporting a developer is not s/w but manpower export & is thus taxable!

    But this is not what threatens our IT / other Industry job growth. Here are the factors that constitute real, structural long term threats.

    1. Slowdown / recession / depression in the developed world. This is now hitting ALL developed regions - US, EU, Japan - & so our companies have no more stories to tell how they will now open up new markets for growth, The impact here would be a flattening or reduction in volume of work coming our way (even in manufacturing export). The IIP decline is a great indicator of how QE & money pumping based on Govt borrowing, keeps consumption artificially high & how things crashed once Stimulus vanished.

    In this regard, the developed world is beyond the point of no return & in addition they have forgotten how to save & can only live paycheck to paycheck & on Govt dole. This will lead to endless QE & Stimulus (China just bailed out their local banks & govts with another huge bailout) each of which will have marginal - if not no - effect, like QE2 until their economies collapse. India's real problem will come at that time.

    Projects will start getting postponed indefinitely or canned & as bench gets very costly, people will take salary cuts or be let off. This will particularly hit H1B & like in 2009 I see H1Bs going abegging in 2012 as well.

    2. A sharp decline in the affluence of the developed world leading to significant reworking of rates & costs. Again people will be told, take a cut or go home. Choice is clear.

    3. There are many people well-trained & experienced but unemployed worldwide. They will now start working for less than Indian workers putting a huge strain further on Indian companies & workers.

    As this world is discovering what our father's generation knew so well, there is only so much one can buy / spend with one's earnings. When you borrow to spend, you are not getting more affluent. You are only spending what you have yet to earn. Further, as there are limits to everything (how many cars can you buy?) eventually people will realize that ALL that that borrowing & spending on fast-depreciating fad items (a ph.one for 40k?!) coupled with a slowdown means a HUGE HOLE in your pocket which is NOT going to get filled by the bank tomorrow with yet another easy, low-interest loan!

    Just as the Americans are getting impoverished by the 1-time, permanent shift in their livelihood to "cheap" India, today a double-whammy is headed our way. Lesser amount of outsourcing globally as economies slowdown or recede coupled with much tighter budgets, This will also lead to a stealth job loss as jobs earlier headed our way quietly goes to cheaper countries (Philippines & BPO).

    And just to stay at the same high level of unemployment we are already in, we need to keep adding millions of new jobs each year. From where?

    These is what will create a difficult Economic situation for us in the next few years where we re-learn the concept of savings as a means of Capital formation & being thrifty & smart in our spending habits!!!

    cheers
    Last edited by wiseman; June 11 2011, 10:25 AM.

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    • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

      Good post as always, Wiseman.

      Except for the presentation of an extreme rather than a better balanced view point, I agree - life for Americans got difficult.

      By extension, life for Indians will get difficult.

      Most of the youngsters I see around me in India are not employable beyond 15,000 Rs per month. They have neither technical ability (skill) nor the ability to work hard.

      India cannot grow on their backs. They are too weak. The only thing taking flight is their desires - in m-obiles,b-ikes, l-aptops and g-irls.

      But they dont have the ability to work for these desires, they are only capable of taking a free handout from their parents - which the parents are busy handing out right left and center.

      Major problem for India growth story
      Venky (Please read watch a or before posting)

      Comment


      • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

        agree 110% to what you are saying

        Originally posted by ThePunjabi View Post
        The so called respectable American companies are not headed by Mahatma Gandhi either. No problem here. This will not lead to correction in Indian RE.
        agree 110% to what you are saying -- does the Indian government have the will or the firepower to go after them -- that is where the difference lies my friend-- wake up and smell the coffee or tea which ever you prefer

        Comment


        • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

          Property dealers waiting for market correction...

          Unaffordable housing prices and a scam-ridden market have prompted investors to stay away from investing in the real estate market. Property dealers and research firms say investors are not keen to buy assets now, while those who do, are looking for suitable exits. Many are, in fact, waiting for a market correction.


          Certain industry sources believe the downtrend in prices has already started and a price correction is inevitable. “Unofficially, the prices have already corrected. Some investors and developers have already exited at lower prices,” said an industry source.



          Research heads from a couple of real estate research firms said the wait-and-watch approach by investors is due to awareness created by media reports on price expectations.



          Real estate in Mumbai: Property dealers waiting for market correction - Mumbai - DNA

          Comment


          • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

            Hit by slowdown, realtors look abroad for succour..

            Top fifty firms together schedule property exhibitions for NRIs; banks, financiers expect good business, too.


            Hit by sluggish sales at home, realtors are wooing non-resident Indians (NRIs). A slew of property exhibitions have been lined up at Dubai, Singapore, London, Durban and New York over the next three-four months.

            ’The NRI customer is well-informed and wants to go for known brands. They have connections back home and they do a lot of due-diligence. Most of them are looking for properties in the range of Rs 50-80 lakh and like to go for a time-tested brand,’’ said Kunal Banerji, president, M3M India.

            Hit by slowdown, realtors look abroad for succour

            If NRI's budget is -50-60 Lakh then what about locals ?

            Comment


            • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

              Originally posted by khbarilal View Post
              Top fifty firms together schedule property exhibitions for NRIs; banks, financiers expect good business, too.

              If NRI's budget is -50-60 Lakh then what about locals ?
              Then locals' budget ought to 1/4 (12-15 Lakhs)
              Good post khbari.

              Comment


              • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                Extreme it is!

                Originally posted by Venkytalks View Post
                Good post as always, Wiseman.

                Except for the presentation of an extreme rather than a better balanced view point, I agree - life for Americans got difficult.

                Major problem for India growth story

                Venky,

                As per latest reports the REAL unemployment rate in the US is now touching the worst of the GD rate near its bottom. In the last month it is estimated that a QUARTER of jobs added is by McDonalds and that too at their lowest wage rate!!!

                Extreme is what the situation is & is being postponed by various accounting gimmicks & QEs.

                Just wait for QEs to stop having any effect (which will be shortly) & you will see how much more extreme it will get.

                Or else, for quicker effect, if you are in US, lose your job & join the Soup Line & check out the feeling among a rapidly increasing number of well educated but impoverished and debt-ridden Americans!

                cheers

                Comment


                • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                  Originally posted by Venkytalks View Post
                  Good post as always, Wiseman.

                  Except for the presentation of an extreme rather than a better balanced view point, I agree - life for Americans got difficult.

                  By extension, life for Indians will get difficult.

                  Most of the youngsters I see around me in India are not employable beyond 15,000 Rs per month. They have neither technical ability (skill) nor the ability to work hard.

                  India cannot grow on their backs. They are too weak. The only thing taking flight is their desires - in m-obiles,b-ikes, l-aptops and g-irls.

                  But they dont have the ability to work for these desires, they are only capable of taking a free handout from their parents - which the parents are busy handing out right left and center.

                  Major problem for India growth story
                  I agree that Americans are facing tough time and extension goes to Indians. But w.r.t. to employable skill level I just do not agree. If you can there are much more MBAs, B-Techs, MBBS & so on in past history.

                  Market is flooded with these professionals (ofcourse I do agree that quality of the institutes from these individuals passes is not comparable with IIT etc). Problem is that these professionals are ready to work at the level where an ordinary graduates work i.e. 15+ salary.

                  Also these Professionals understand the current and future scenario because they are well connected and well versed with todays and future environment and have struggled much to get their first job and this experience has made them much more sincere.

                  Comment


                  • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                    Time to sell your house with realty prices peaking and a correction in the offing - The Economic Times

                    home owners, hurry up sell it now or hold for 3 years.......

                    Comment


                    • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                      Originally posted by wiseman View Post
                      Venky,

                      As per latest reports the REAL unemployment rate in the US is now touching the worst of the GD rate near its bottom. In the last month it is estimated that a QUARTER of jobs added is by McDonalds and that too at their lowest wage rate!!!

                      Extreme is what the situation is & is being postponed by various accounting gimmicks & QEs.

                      Just wait for QEs to stop having any effect (which will be shortly) & you will see how much more extreme it will get.

                      Or else, for quicker effect, if you are in US, lose your job & join the Soup Line & check out the feeling among a rapidly increasing number of well educated but impoverished and debt-ridden Americans!

                      cheers
                      The rich get richer and the poor get poorer. That is the inevitable result of globalisation.

                      On the other hand - those people working as MacD service or super market check out counters at 15-20,000$ per annum = 7-9L per annum India salary - they are employed only because their job cannot be outsourced.

                      If anyone in India China etc can do any job currently in a developed country - for less than 7-9 L salary - i.e 50-75000
                      Rs per month - that job will get outsourced. That will only make the poor poorer - whether in USA or Greece or Ireland or Portugal or UK - doesnt matter.

                      All India has to do is train our people enough to take those jobs.

                      Unfortunate that we have a useless govt which is not able to do even that - just reach out and take
                      Last edited by Venkytalks; June 13 2011, 05:40 PM.
                      Venky (Please read watch a or before posting)

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