Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

Collapse
X
Collapse

Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

Last updated: November 1 2016
12768 | Posts
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

    Your dream house may not be ready by FY13

    Another eg. of builders facing liquidity crunch:-

    The study covered 11 locations; Gurgaon, Noida, Greater Noida, Mumbai, Navi Mumbai, Thane, Pune, Bangalore, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kolkata.

    Your dream house may not be ready by FY13
    If you are happy, you are successful.

    Comment


    • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

      Originally posted by realacres View Post
      Yes, but I will not place my bet on silver as of now. Sharp correction is expected in silver. Declines inductrial production especially in west will put even more pressure on silver.
      Man, silver rates were artificially jacked up as some chaps in US bought metals to the tune of US$ 4+ bn. As they are now selling this, the pressure will be even more.
      Agrees sir, but there is another aspect to Silver.

      As Gold breaches its 1600 USD level and head towards 1800 and then 2000, it'll go further go out of reach of middle & lower class. Though, Gold ETFs do provide option for Gold investment, but even there units would become costly with physical gold. And i see only Silver as a viable and most widely available option. Probably that's why Silver is referred to as Poor Man's Gold.

      Besides, a major source of Gold's supply comes from recycling - either from jewellery or other physical source. But silver is used industrial processes in either very small quantities or in such a form that its either economically not feasible or physically not possible to recycle. So silver once gone is like gone.

      This is my POV. Still, i agree that Gold provides better stability and gradual growth prospects than highly volatile silver. Silver is like - high risk high return game.
      The knowledge of what to do in a Recession or Boom is more important than predicting a Recession or Boom.

      Comment


      • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

        Problem with high inflation and especially stagflation:

        The savings are destroyed. Those who save suffer.

        Those who spend prosper - because they spent the money quickly, before its value dropped.

        In high inflationary times, it is always better to buy whatever is a NEED now - and not wait for tomorrow.

        Exceptions : Cars and electronics prices stay the same or even drop.

        Food and other consumption materials cannot be hoarded.

        Only thing which can be hoarded is RE. So if you have renovations of the house, tiling, extra stories etc to be built, better to do it now.

        Tomorrow cost will go up - is not of the materials, then definitely of the labour wages.

        Other hoardable things are furniture - buy the best today - good quality fixtures.

        Since our currency is strong, go on foreign vacations now.

        Any other hoardable things - apart from gold and silver?
        Venky (Please read watch a or before posting)

        Comment


        • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

          Venky - Gold has crashed from a high of $ 1568 to below $ 1500 levels. What do you think will happen to gold prices in the short and medium term.


          some analysts are saying that we cud see significant downside form current levels right down to $ 1470-1450 levels. Some are expecting a sharp pullback in the next few days, especially if oil makes a comeback. 200 DMA for gold is $ 1415.

          Immediate Macroeconomic event which could impact gold - Greece's Parliament will debate and then vote on a €28 billion austerity package over the next three days . Greece needs to show that it is taking serious steps to slash its debt in order to get more bailout money from the IMF, European Union and European Central Bank. If the measure fails and Greece can't access more money, investors might buy up gold as a safe haven asset. If, however, Parliament approves the package then investors, feeling secure about a resolution in Greece, might opt for riskier stocks.

          Few events which can lead to a rally in Gold in the next few days
          - Rise in Oil Prices
          - Rally in Global Markets
          - Weakening of Dollar
          - Rise in Inflation fears

          Comment


          • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

            Gold is same as currency = unpredictable.

            Since it has no use except as a currency when all other currencies are failing/losing value, gold prices are going to depend on the cumulative loosening and tightening of 20 plus countries central banks.

            Nobody can predict that. If you have to sell gold within 3 days, sell 1/3rd on each day.

            You might gain - or you might lose.

            But you will at least get the average of 3 days price.

            A lot depends on QE3/Quasi QE3 from fed in the next months time. A lot also depends on economic data from OECD countries, China and also commodity prices of Brazil and Russia. I personally believe that RBI will pause tightening while Fed will lapse the QE programme. Which means that net net Rs will loseagainst dollar. So Dollar will rise, gold will fall in dollar but gold in Rupee will stay steady

            It is all as unpredictable as India's stock market.
            Last edited by Venkytalks; June 28 2011, 04:12 PM.
            Venky (Please read watch a or before posting)

            Comment


            • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

              China’s Debt Situation Not Far Off From Greece: Analyst

              News Headlines

              Btw, OPEC has said yesterday that they will ensure that the oil remains in $ 80-100 range. Don't know whether this will help global economy to recover a bit faster.
              If you are happy, you are successful.

              Comment


              • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                Originally posted by Venkytalks View Post
                Gold is same as currency = unpredictable.

                Since it has no use except as a currency when all other currencies are failing/losing value, gold prices are going to depend on the cumulative loosening and tightening of 20 plus countries central banks.

                Nobody can predict that. If you have to sell gold within 3 days, sell 1/3rd on each day.

                You might gain - or you might lose.

                But you will at least get the average of 3 days price.

                A lot depends on QE3/Quasi QE3 from fed in the next months time. A lot also depends on economic data from OECD countries, China and also commodity prices of Brazil and Russia. I personally believe that RBI will pause tightening while Fed will lapse the QE programme. Which means that net net Rs will loseagainst dollar. So Dollar will rise, gold will fall in dollar but gold in Rupee will stay steady

                It is all as unpredictable as India's stock market.
                Sir ji, sorry for disagreeing with you.
                In short term, Gold could be UNPREDICTABLE.
                But in medium to long term, i consider it to be more predictable than currencies, RE and Stock markets.

                Look at attached stats - Gold reserve - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

                Developed nations central banks (US, Italy, France, Greece, Germany etc.) hold majority of there reserves in Gold (60% - 80%). Why - because of GOLD's inherent strength as a store of value and wealth. Because it can't be printed in unlimited qtys like Paper currency, and hence its prices are governed (almost) by primary market forces of Demand and Supply.

                And look at EMs - India (8.1%), China (1.7%), Russia (6.7%), Brazil (0.5%), Malayasia (1.5%), South Africa (12.2%), Japan (3.0%). These are the nations that hold some of the world's largest forex reserves (Foreign exchange reserves - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia).

                Even India is holding majority of its reserves in Dollars and Euro, both of which are gradually losing confidence across globe. (http://www.freewebs.com/rrajan01/FE5.pdf)

                Moreover, for the first time after 2 decades, central banks have become net buyers of gold then being net sellers. WHY ?
                (The Daily Bell - Central Banks Buy Gold).

                All indicators point that one day, countries and especially EMs will start dumping losing Dollars/Euros and raising there Gold Deposits in terms of Forex Reserves to save there wealth (or pobably they have already started silently).

                Think of where will GOLD PRICE reach then. I see even 2000 USD per ounce to be very conservative target, that too for next 2 years only.
                The knowledge of what to do in a Recession or Boom is more important than predicting a Recession or Boom.

                Comment


                • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                  Originally posted by bhuvang View Post
                  Sir ji, sorry for disagreeing with you.
                  In short term, Gold could be UNPREDICTABLE.
                  But in medium to long term, i consider it to be more predictable than currencies, RE and Stock markets.

                  Look at attached stats - Gold reserve - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

                  Developed nations central banks (US, Italy, France, Greece, Germany etc.) hold majority of there reserves in Gold (60% - 80%). Why - because of GOLD's inherent strength as a store of value and wealth. Because it can't be printed in unlimited qtys like Paper currency, and hence its prices are governed (almost) by primary market forces of Demand and Supply.

                  And look at EMs - India (8.1%), China (1.7%), Russia (6.7%), Brazil (0.5%), Malayasia (1.5%), South Africa (12.2%), Japan (3.0%). These are the nations that hold some of the world's largest forex reserves (Foreign exchange reserves - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia).

                  Even India is holding majority of its reserves in Dollars and Euro, both of which are gradually losing confidence across globe. (http://www.freewebs.com/rrajan01/FE5.pdf)

                  Moreover, for the first time after 2 decades, central banks have become net buyers of gold then being net sellers. WHY ?
                  (The Daily Bell - Central Banks Buy Gold).

                  All indicators point that one day, countries and especially EMs will start dumping losing Dollars/Euros and raising there Gold Deposits in terms of Forex Reserves to save there wealth (or pobably they have already started silently).

                  Think of where will GOLD PRICE reach then. I see even 2000 USD per ounce to be very conservative target, that too for next 2 years only.
                  Hi, 2000$ is nothing.

                  If gold standard is ever to be restored, then probable calculated price of gold will have to be 50,000 USD if I remember right - Wiseman will probably know - i.e. Total global wealth (currently calculated about 420-460 trillion dollars, divided by total ounces of extracted gold currently available).

                  Chances of this ever happening are miniscule.

                  But yes, as long as the world keeps printing money, gold will keep going up. Until the day the printing presses stop - when gold will plummet.

                  I expect 2014 to be the watershed day when global imbalances will create an extreme hyperinflation event when gold will reach crazy prices. After that the crisis will recede.

                  So yes, keeping some gold in your investment at current low prices CANNOT GO WRONG .

                  Value investors of course will never buy gold - because cost of extraction is some 300 odd dollars and rest 1200 dollars is just speculator's premium. But value investors rarely make spectacular returns.

                  As a realist, when currency debasement is all around, especially in India, buying gold in a no brainer. But 3-5 YEARS is the time frame
                  Venky (Please read watch a or before posting)

                  Comment


                  • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                    I had written about this a couple of days ago ...

                    Originally posted by realacres View Post
                    News Headlines

                    Btw, OPEC has said yesterday that they will ensure that the oil remains in $ 80-100 range. Don't know whether this will help global economy to recover a bit faster.

                    This looks like it was a bad move on the part of Obama / EU politicians who have taken up a war with OPEC simply because they are unwilling to address the real problem - too much debt and spending by them.

                    All OPEC has to do is to reduce production by the amount of oil to be released and stabilise price. Then, when the relese gets over, they can remain at the same lower level of production and get the speculators to jack up prices even higher than previous high since the US/EU have to replenish stock at some point - besides catering to ramped up summer and then winter demand!!

                    Of course the US can counter by releasing more oil, but it will soon become a political issue with criticisms that Obama is using Emergency supplies to take care of his personal political survival! This argument is already out there and is growing.

                    So, I assumed that oil will become stable around $85-90 and regain its %95 price basically making the entire release thing a failure.

                    Interestingly, within only a few days of the news, Nymex Crude has risen back to $94 and Brent to $109/110. We now need to see where oil prices will go from here.

                    The danger to us comes when / if oil goes back to $125 and one more rise in Diesel / Petrol is required. Then all hell will break lose as our inflation levels are on an edge and interest rates are already unberable. We could easily be pushed into a steep slowdown quickly.

                    Let is see.

                    cheers

                    Comment


                    • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                      Originally posted by bhuvang View Post
                      Sir ji, sorry for disagreeing with you.
                      Why sorry man?? We agree to disagree & we all like to know both sides of the coin .

                      Developed nations central banks (US, Italy, France, Greece, Germany etc.) hold majority of there reserves in Gold (60% - 80%).
                      I can inform that US has secretly sold several tonnes of gold without official declaring it. The Fed knows it well. Infact, there have been cases where tungsten bars are gold plated & kept in the reserve so as to show all is fine. In reality, it is not the case. Several countries in west are doing this.
                      If you are happy, you are successful.

                      Comment

                      Tags: None
                      Have any questions or thoughts about this?
                      Working...
                      X