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Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

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Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

Last updated: November 1 2016
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  • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by khbarilal
    T

    Let's watch how high Pune builder can raise. ... . higher the speculation much deeper will be the correction.


    Originally posted by compuwalah View Post
    Think this is good enough for bears to hang on for next few years .


    Twisted logic and word play come to mind...
    When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir? - John Maynard Keynes

    Comment


    • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

      Originally posted by saggii View Post
      Again if to assume that value of Rupee goes down then-
      1. Oil will be costlier
      2. inflation will increase
      3. growth will decrease
      4. FDI will decrease
      5. Venky's points holds true

      But how is that going to happen given FDI is robust and growth is still intact?
      All 5 pointers holds true if growth stall, but question is- is it going to happen?
      FDI is no longer robust. FII inflows are happening but they are no substitute for FDI.

      Hot money is flowing, but rest of India story has gone cold | Firstpost

      Growth is also not intact. While Manmohan Singh continue to talk about 9% GDP growth rate, RBI has already lowered its prediction to 8% and FIIs like RBS and Citi are already talking about sub 8% numbers like 7.25 to 7.5%.

      Rupee is not depreciating because interest rates are still rising. Just wait for interest rate hikes to end and then you will see the fireworks.
      Last edited by ThePunjabi; July 6 2011, 08:17 PM.

      Comment


      • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

        Originally posted by ThePunjabi View Post
        FDI is no longer robust. FII inflows are happening but they are no substitute for FDI.

        Hot money is flowing, but rest of India story has gone cold | Firstpost

        Growth is also not intact. While Manmohan Singh continue to talks about 9% GDP growth rate, RBI has already lowered its prediction to 8% and FIIs like RBS and Citi are already talking about sub 8% numbers like 7.25 to 7.5%.

        Rupee is not depreciating because interest rates are still rising. Just wait for interest rate hikes and then you will see the fireworks.
        +1

        High inflation interest rates slow demand; will impact Q1 performance say brokerages - Moneylife Personal Finance site and magazine

        Comment


        • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

          It’s a market saying that “Either Bear makes money OR Bull makes money”, we strongly believe in this. In current market scenario & price condition we know who is going to win. Looks like some builders are in permanent bull phase & desperately looking for bakaras.
          Off-course playing a wedding music in funeral doesn’t make any sense. The music may be good but the time & situation is not correct.
          BTW, it’s not called timing the market.

          Originally posted by stoxxx View Post
          Quote:
          Originally Posted by khbarilal
          T

          Let's watch how high Pune builder can raise. ... . higher the speculation much deeper will be the correction.



          Twisted logic and word play come to mind...

          Comment


          • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

            Factors which RE Bulls Forget

            There are many things which RE bulls forget when they talk about RE hikes.

            > The home loan interest rates have gone up by whopping 25% in 1 year, more hikes likely by the end of the year,

            > The demand took place in 2009, mainly due to TEASER RATES offered by banks to indirectly bail out builders. As RBI intervened, the teaser rates no longer exist, including that of SBI,

            > The loan sanctioned in terms of %age has fallen when compared to 2009 or before. This means more downpayment required by the buyer,

            > IT, the main driver of RE growth in city has shown poor performance in last fiscal. IT sector in general was downgraded by several rating agencies,

            > There is no change in city's infra from past 3 years so as to justify the hike in rates. The DP is still in air, no metro in site, no improvement in water supply etc.

            The Baner road is still going on & water probs are still there in Kharadi, Vimannagar, BP link rd etc.

            > Banks have pressurised builders to repay the loan, no roll-over permitted. This has resulted in massive sell on non-core assets by RE cos like hotels, lands etc.

            Even in Pune, the DLF has sold acres of land of IT SEZ. Hiranandani has dropped the launch of their township at Hinjewadi. Blue Ridge (a darling of investors), is still busy selling its flats, old as well as the new ones, shown alongwith mangoes !!

            > Projects like Amanora are offering lower interest rates, while others are offering freebies like modular kitchen, semi-furnishing etc.

            > Hike in fuel prices have increased inflation & further taken a dent in savings. This means less money for expenditure, which in turn results in lower eligibility for home loan.

            > The banks' number of rise in RE NPAs show how rotten the sector has become from beneath.

            Man, a car can go from 40 kmph to 80 kmph with ease, but to expect it to go from 80 kmph to 160 kmph is naive.
            If you are happy, you are successful.

            Comment


            • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

              Does any one has figures of number of flats sold monthwise, that can clearly state whether the demand is still alive or gone down

              Comment


              • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                Originally posted by vishal1406 View Post
                Does any one has figures of number of flats sold monthwise, that can clearly state whether the demand is still alive or gone down
                I don't have figs but the sale or rather agreements has dropped by 70% QoQ in Mumbai & this includes resales also. Hence, the number of units sold by builders can be even less.
                If you are happy, you are successful.

                Comment


                • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                  Originally posted by realacres View Post
                  There are many things which RE bulls forget when they talk about RE hikes.

                  > The home loan interest rates have gone up by whopping 25% in 1 year, more hikes likely by the end of the year,

                  > The demand took place in 2009, mainly due to TEASER RATES offered by banks to indirectly bail out builders. As RBI intervened, the teaser rates no longer exist, including that of SBI,

                  > The loan sanctioned in terms of %age has fallen when compared to 2009 or before. This means more downpayment required by the buyer,

                  > IT, the main driver of RE growth in city has shown poor performance in last fiscal. IT sector in general was downgraded by several rating agencies,

                  > There is no change in city's infra from past 3 years so as to justify the hike in rates. The DP is still in air, no metro in site, no improvement in water supply etc.

                  The Baner road is still going on & water probs are still there in Kharadi, Vimannagar, BP link rd etc.

                  > Banks have pressurised builders to repay the loan, no roll-over permitted. This has resulted in massive sell on non-core assets by RE cos like hotels, lands etc.

                  Even in Pune, the DLF has sold acres of land of IT SEZ. Hiranandani has dropped the launch of their township at Hinjewadi. Blue Ridge (a darling of investors), is still busy selling its flats, old as well as the new ones, shown alongwith mangoes !!

                  > Projects like Amanora are offering lower interest rates, while others are offering freebies like modular kitchen, semi-furnishing etc.

                  > Hike in fuel prices have increased inflation & further taken a dent in savings. This means less money for expenditure, which in turn results in lower eligibility for home loan.

                  > The banks' number of rise in RE NPAs show how rotten the sector has become from beneath.

                  Man, a car can go from 40 kmph to 80 kmph with ease, but to expect it to go from 80 kmph to 160 kmph is naive.

                  Agree with you.
                  +1 important point.
                  In 2008-09 when recession was there pune RE prices didn't corrected heavily. One of the main reason was builders has earned huge profits during 2005-08 and they had hold the prices by reducing supply. Also recession/slag period was hardly there for 1.5 years. But this time if current enviornment persists for more than two years then PUNE RE will have a major price correction. A person can fast for 10 days (bcaz health bears it) but after 10 days everyday is like a dying day

                  Comment


                  • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                    In India, Pune is only the exception where prices are always rising.
                    This thread talks only at macro level about what is happening in world
                    Interest rates are rising, job market is down,credit policy.. bla..bla..bla

                    But my friends , what is a ground reality ?
                    On ground , you go to any area in baner,waked,pashan , rates are always going up day by day

                    Ground reality is rates are increasing year after year
                    I stay in a reputed society at baner-pashan link road
                    In May 2010 1 bhk resale flat sold there for 22 lac
                    In Nov 2010 same type bhk resale flat sold there for 25 lac
                    And last week one more sold at 28 lac

                    So no matter what is happening to economy, interest rates, job market, industry, share market , Pune RE least bothered about it and it has nothing to do with this.

                    At micro level, on ground rates are always up in last 2-3 years
                    So no pint in discussing what is happening to economy ,credit policy, banks interest, IT slowdown. Nothing has any impact on rates and they are always up.

                    There is one thread here which says put property prices rates reduce post here. Visit that thread, you hardly find any project which has reduced the rates , But ask any member list the project where prices are increase in last 2 yrs, this list will never ending and anybody who have booked a flat 2-3 yr ago can tell, how much appreciation they are getting now.

                    So realize the fact and discuss ground reality of pune instead of discussing what is happening globally or in india or noida or with banks or with govt.

                    Comment


                    • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                      Originally posted by sandy_pune View Post
                      In India, Pune is only the exception where prices are always rising.
                      This thread talks only at macro level about what is happening in world
                      Interest rates are rising, job market is down,credit policy.. bla..bla..bla

                      But my friends , what is a ground reality ?
                      On ground , you go to any area in baner,waked,pashan , rates are always going up day by day

                      Ground reality is rates are increasing year after year
                      I stay in a reputed society at baner-pashan link road
                      In May 2010 1 bhk resale flat sold there for 22 lac
                      In Nov 2010 same type bhk resale flat sold there for 25 lac
                      And last week one more sold at 28 lac

                      So no matter what is happening to economy, interest rates, job market, industry, share market , Pune RE least bothered about it and it has nothing to do with this.

                      At micro level, on ground rates are always up in last 2-3 years
                      So no pint in discussing what is happening to economy ,credit policy, banks interest, IT slowdown. Nothing has any impact on rates and they are always up.

                      There is one thread here which says put property prices rates reduce post here. Visit that thread, you hardly find any project which has reduced the rates , But ask any member list the project where prices are increase in last 2 yrs, this list will never ending and anybody who have booked a flat 2-3 yr ago can tell, how much appreciation they are getting now.

                      So realize the fact and discuss ground reality of pune instead of discussing what is happening globally or in india or noida or with banks or with govt.
                      PUNE is not impacted by global economy, IT slowdown, bank interest, credit policy then I wish finance minister should consult you and make different policies for pune
                      Last edited by yash.mahadik; July 8 2011, 10:12 PM.

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