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Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

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Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

Last updated: November 1 2016
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  • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

    Originally posted by Manoos View Post
    Naveen no where on internet or real life you will get 100% confident answers for an asset where you are going to put your life's money.

    The very fact that you belived in the forums means you yourself thought -vely about economy.

    If you were +ve you would have been asking the brokers who would have advised you to buy

    Also check this Confirmation bias - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    why will i be biased?

    i can explain with an example of Mont Vert Belair thread. Somebody raised a concern for registration & said "... but such reputed builders are expected to be professional ..."
    Immediately realacers replied ''C'mon man, how can you call Mont Vert reputed ? It is like saying Sharad Pawar is honest'. I feel sad for you but still don't understand how can one book where sanctions are not in place ?? '
    and then another contributor said "I have dropped my plan to but (should be buy I guess) the flat at Belair"
    Whereas the registration was started as per helmark.

    That is sad.

    Comment


    • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

      Another story

      Originally posted by Naveen_Flat View Post
      But if u observe, its true, in every thread in Pune on IREF, most of the time there are comments only like this .. 'recession is coming', 'price will fall', 'buying now is foolishness', DSK is low quality. Paranjape is this, Dagade is that, Kumar is cheater, KP is yaaks, Konark is in sink, Goyal Ganga & Gera are gone case... reminds me Jay-Mausi conversation

      Mausi : Arre beta, bas itna samaz lo ke me jawaan beti seene par
      pathhar ke sil ki tarah hoti hai. Basanti ka byaah ho jaaye
      to chain ki saans loo.
      Jay : haa sach kaha mausi aapne. bada bojh hai aap par.
      Mausi : Lekin beta, is bojh ko koi kunwe me to phaik nahi deta.Bura nahi
      maananaa , itanaa to poochhanaa hi padataa hai ke ladke
      kaa khaandaan kyaa hai uske lachhchhan kaise hai, kamaataa kitnaa
      hai?
      Jay : Kamaane ka to ye hai mausi,..,ke ek baar biwi bachhon ki jimmedaari
      sar pe aa gayi to .. kamaane bhi lagegaa.
      Mausi : To kya abhi kuchh bhi nahi kamaataa?
      Jay : Nahi nahi ye maine kba kahaa mausi, kamaataa hai lekin,... ab roj
      roj to aadmi jeet nahi sakataa na. .. kabhi haar bhi jaataa hai
      bechaaraa?
      Mausi : haar jaata hai?
      Jay : haan mausi ab ye kambakht juwaa cheej hi aisi hai ab mai kyaa
      kahoon ?
      Mausi : heynnnn. to kya juwaari hai?
      Jay : chhi chhi chhi chhi mausi, woh aur juwaari na na. woh to bahot hi
      achchha aur nek ladka hai.Lekin mausi, ek baar sharaab pi li na phir,
      achchhe bure ka kahaa hosh rahataa hai. Haath pakad ke bitha liyaa
      kisi ne juwaa khelane. ab isme bechare Veeru ka kya dosh?
      Mausi : Thik kahate ho beta. juwaari woh sharaabi woh lekin, uska koi
      dosh nahi.
      Jay : Mausi aap to mere dost ko galat samaz rahi hai. woh to itanaa
      seedha aur bhola hai. aare basanti se uski shaadi karke to dekhiye,
      ye juwe aur sharaab ki aadat to do din me chhoot jaayegi.
      Mausi : Arre beta, mujh budhiyaa ko samaza rahe ho. ye sharaab aur juwe ki aadat kisi ki chhooti hai aaj tak.
      Jay : Mausi aap Veeru ko nahi jaanati , wishwaas kijiye wo is tarah kaa
      insaan nahi hai. Ek baar shaadi ho gayi to woh us gaane-waali ke
      jaanaa band kar degaa. bas, sharaab apne aap chhoot jaayegi.
      Mausi : Hi hi, bas yehi ek kami raha gayi thi. to kya kisi gaane-waali ke
      bhi aanaa jaanaa hai?

      U decide....

      You need another story to understand this. taken from my post in July 10
      Just consider the situation of Pune/Banglore like IT city ......
      Each of this city has 90% of its business from Euro and US.
      So considering US Client... Walmart for Eg. as "Boss" here....
      And the IT offshore office as a "Chauffeur".

      If all of sudden the Indian Middle class (chauffeur's community they do not invent or do high end work 90% of them compared to US who is from last Century doing all the inventions where 10 % of outsiders too are there) suddenly gets quick money and assumes future will also keep bringing such money starts to spend like anything ....for the same "goods" Boss is using.
      left his style(Money Savers) and now following Boss's style(Living on Credit/Future Earning).
      Boss's businness is going down ...and in some time his business will be gone.
      (America is at a path of No return since decades and no body wishes to acccept it as its loss to whole world.)
      Exclusive: America has ‘reached the point of no return,’ Reagan budget director warns | The Raw Story
      unaware of this .... the chauffeur is happy with his earning and spending the same way his boss has done.....spending on Future earning.

      While for Boss its cheaper... in chauffeur's market its costlier.
      (AUDI, Arrow shirt, House price in India and in US)
      While Boss's and chauffeur's house are compareable in price
      Boss stays in 1/2 acre Bunglow while chauffeur is Apartment scheme with Poor infra, no water, lawless society, high Crime so on.....
      Now in this new found wealth chauffeur has reduced its saving and taken addtional burden of loan(Car loan house loan).
      Earlier he used to be spending carefully now he changes his cycle every two year as new models come every six month ... and other chauffeurs are doing it he cannot resist.
      Think for some time what has changed in last 6-7 yrs??
      Unequal distribution of wealth.
      Lots and lots of Non India companies are tapping indian market ....
      for Few years its good but when ROI and break-even comes shops can get closed too....
      Telecom, Electronics , FMCG ....
      Margins are good but are they increasing ?? soon they will be Wafer thin....
      This on top of US , Euro Crisis not yet fully solved (or Started, maybe you just saw the trailer)
      He doesn't want to understand the Economic/System failure.
      This make chauffeur a pig in market terms ... and he is destined to be slaughtered .... either by default or by Inflation weapon.
      Also chauffeur is the last Fool standing(in stock market terms)
      he has been spoon feeded that high inflation is not a depression/Recession. And 2008 was one such event and no such event will occur in future.

      hahahaaa

      Both eat your budget ... one pays less .. other makes ones pay appear less.

      S..t remains S..t even if you cover it with Choclate cream.
      Thats what all the Bosses(Govt, CEO, Fund Managers) have decided to show the world ...check your plate again .. deep inside its the same s..t.

      Patient had a gangrane ... the doctor instead of operating kept on giving caffine when he came in out of sedation .. rest of the time they gave him c.o.caine.
      Thats what Fed and Govts have done till now sooner or later its paytime.
      So if Boss is going to be bankrupt/out of business sooner or later what will hapen to chauffeur?
      He doesn't have brains/wisdom to think or even plan this?????

      And like a teenager is fighting with the wellwisher for why they are not letting him take C.o.caine

      Last edited by frugality; August 7 2011, 11:12 AM.

      Comment


      • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

        Originally posted by frugality View Post
        You need another story to understand this. taken from my post in July 10
        Just consider the situation of Pune/Banglore like IT city ......
        Each of this city has 90% of its business from Euro and US.
        So considering US Client... Walmart for Eg. as "Boss" here....
        And the IT offshore office as a "Chauffeur".

        If all of sudden the Indian Middle class (chauffeur's community they do not invent or do high end work 90% of them compared to US who is from last Century doing all the inventions where 10 % of outsiders too are there) suddenly gets quick money and assumes future will also keep bringing such money starts to spend like anything ....for the same "goods" Boss is using.
        left his style(Money Savers) and now following Boss's style(Living on Credit/Future Earning).
        Boss's businness is going down ...and in some time his business will be gone.
        (America is at a path of No return since decades and no body wishes to acccept it as its loss to whole world.)
        Exclusive: America has ‘reached the point of no return,’ Reagan budget director warns | The Raw Story
        unaware of this .... the chauffeur is happy with his earning and spending the same way his boss has done.....spending on Future earning.

        While for Boss its cheaper... in chauffeur's market its costlier.
        (AUDI, Arrow shirt, House price in India and in US)
        While Boss's and chauffeur's house are compareable in price
        Boss stays in 1/2 acre Bunglow while chauffeur is Apartment scheme with Poor infra, no water, lawless society, high Crime so on.....
        Now in this new found wealth chauffeur has reduced its saving and taken addtional burden of loan(Car loan house loan).
        Earlier he used to be spending carefully now he changes his cycle every two year as new models come every six month ... and other chauffeurs are doing it he cannot resist.
        Think for some time what has changed in last 6-7 yrs??
        Unequal distribution of wealth.
        Lots and lots of Non India companies are tapping indian market ....
        for Few years its good but when ROI and break-even comes shops can get closed too....
        Telecom, Electronics , FMCG ....
        Margins are good but are they increasing ?? soon they will be Wafer thin....
        This on top of US , Euro Crisis not yet fully solved (or Started, maybe you just saw the trailer)
        He doesn't want to understand the Economic/System failure.
        This make chauffeur a pig in market terms ... and he is destined to be slaughtered .... either by default or by Inflation weapon.
        Also chauffeur is the last Fool standing(in stock market terms)
        he has been spoon feeded that high inflation is not a depression/Recession. And 2008 was one such event and no such event will occur in future.

        hahahaaa

        Both eat your budget ... one pays less .. other makes ones pay appear less.

        S..t remains S..t even if you cover it with Choclate cream.
        Thats what all the Bosses(Govt, CEO, Fund Managers) have decided to show the world ...check your plate again .. deep inside its the same s..t.

        Patient had a gangrane ... the doctor instead of operating kept on giving caffine when he came in out of sedation .. rest of the time they gave him c.o.caine.
        Thats what Fed and Govts have done till now sooner or later its paytime.
        So if Boss is going to be bankrupt/out of business sooner or later what will hapen to chauffeur?
        He doesn't have brains/wisdom to think or even plan this?????

        And like a teenager is fighting with the wellwisher for why they are not letting him take C.o.caine

        frugality, as always great thinking and analysis.
        Teenagers may not ponder over bad times, cause not seen any. And paid media (TOI) paints all glossy/rosy picture about India's RE growth.
        Last edited by hitmady; August 7 2011, 05:51 PM.

        Comment


        • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

          Originally posted by frugality View Post
          You need another story to understand this. taken from my post in July 10
          Just consider the situation of Pune/Banglore like IT city ......
          Each of this city has 90% of its business from Euro and US.
          So considering US Client... Walmart for Eg. as "Boss" here....
          And the IT offshore office as a "Chauffeur".

          If all of sudden the Indian Middle class (chauffeur's community they do not invent or do high end work 90% of them compared to US who is from last Century doing all the inventions where 10 % of outsiders too are there) suddenly gets quick money and assumes future will also keep bringing such money starts to spend like anything ....for the same "goods" Boss is using.
          left his style(Money Savers) and now following Boss's style(Living on Credit/Future Earning).
          Boss's businness is going down ...and in some time his business will be gone.
          (America is at a path of No return since decades and no body wishes to acccept it as its loss to whole world.)
          Exclusive: America has ‘reached the point of no return,’ Reagan budget director warns | The Raw Story
          unaware of this .... the chauffeur is happy with his earning and spending the same way his boss has done.....spending on Future earning.

          While for Boss its cheaper... in chauffeur's market its costlier.
          (AUDI, Arrow shirt, House price in India and in US)
          While Boss's and chauffeur's house are compareable in price
          Boss stays in 1/2 acre Bunglow while chauffeur is Apartment scheme with Poor infra, no water, lawless society, high Crime so on.....
          Now in this new found wealth chauffeur has reduced its saving and taken addtional burden of loan(Car loan house loan).
          Earlier he used to be spending carefully now he changes his cycle every two year as new models come every six month ... and other chauffeurs are doing it he cannot resist.
          Think for some time what has changed in last 6-7 yrs??
          Unequal distribution of wealth.
          Lots and lots of Non India companies are tapping indian market ....
          for Few years its good but when ROI and break-even comes shops can get closed too....
          Telecom, Electronics , FMCG ....
          Margins are good but are they increasing ?? soon they will be Wafer thin....
          This on top of US , Euro Crisis not yet fully solved (or Started, maybe you just saw the trailer)
          He doesn't want to understand the Economic/System failure.
          This make chauffeur a pig in market terms ... and he is destined to be slaughtered .... either by default or by Inflation weapon.
          Also chauffeur is the last Fool standing(in stock market terms)
          he has been spoon feeded that high inflation is not a depression/Recession. And 2008 was one such event and no such event will occur in future.

          hahahaaa

          Both eat your budget ... one pays less .. other makes ones pay appear less.

          S..t remains S..t even if you cover it with Choclate cream.
          Thats what all the Bosses(Govt, CEO, Fund Managers) have decided to show the world ...check your plate again .. deep inside its the same s..t.

          Patient had a gangrane ... the doctor instead of operating kept on giving caffine when he came in out of sedation .. rest of the time they gave him c.o.caine.
          Thats what Fed and Govts have done till now sooner or later its paytime.
          So if Boss is going to be bankrupt/out of business sooner or later what will hapen to chauffeur?
          He doesn't have brains/wisdom to think or even plan this?????

          And like a teenager is fighting with the wellwisher for why they are not letting him take C.o.caine

          Bravo, frugality.

          Although I do remember reading a similar analogy earlier in some thread - perhaps you have repeated a previous post on this very thread?
          Venky (Please read watch a or before posting)

          Comment


          • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

            Originally posted by hitmady View Post
            frugality, as always great thinking and analysis.
            Teenagers may not ponder over bad times, cause not seen any. And paid media (TOI) paints all glossy/rosy picture about India's RE growth.
            Sorry to say but I find it more like a broken record played again and again

            Comment


            • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

              Originally posted by compuwalah View Post
              Sorry to say but I find it more like a broken record played again and again
              Having seen economic cycles and bad-times, people play this record over times to caution others.
              See economic indexes of the world yourself. This is not the time to make big ticket RE-investment even with full-cash, forget about taking very-high leverage.
              Last edited by hitmady; August 9 2011, 07:34 AM.

              Comment


              • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                Global Economy is Deteriorating.....

                Out of self-interest, debt trapped builders are trying to mislead buyers. Though the thread started in 2009, the current slowdown alert was flagged in Dec-2010.
                After reading Double deep recession news, the scared builders are now trying last attempt to fool buyers. The current market indicators are pointing to ….. The Pune real estate market activity barometer is pretty much down, inventory piled up, registration trend is down.

                People, who are blaming others for missing 2009 bus, can come forward & show their courage after 2 months.
                Surprisingly, the pride purple has put “Park turquoise” project on hold, 1 month after prelaunch; they are giving some junk excuses to buyers.

                The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 1.5 percent at 11:20 a.m. in Tokyo. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures lost 1.8 percent, following a two-week rout that dragged the gauge down 11 percent and erased its 2011 gain. The dollar reached an all-time low of 74.85 Swiss centimes before trading at 76.15. Treasury 30-year yields climbed four basis points. Oil sank 2.9 percent in New York, while immediate-delivery gold topped $1,690 an ounce.

                http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-07/u-s-stock-futures-oil-plunges-on-rating-downgrade-n-z-index-declines.html

                Comment


                • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                  reality of realty

                  Well, i m not sure on Pune real estate scenario but all i can say demand supply logic does not work well when it comes to Indian Realty. The reason is India has two parallel ecomonies- White economy run by many salaried employees, corporations etc and black economy-the REAL ENGINE of India run by small/medium/big businessmen spread across country.
                  We know real estate developers fall in which category!!
                  The nexus-political-beurocrats-builder-media has much more sustaining power that we can imagine.Historically this lobby has played major role in policy decision, changing Realty economics by various means in country.
                  Even if rates fall- it won't fall beyond 5 to 10% in my opinion. Do you really think one can purchase 2 BHK decent flat in Kalyani Nagar/Deccan even if worst recession comes? I doubt.

                  Comment


                  • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                    Exactly!

                    Originally posted by compuwalah View Post
                    Sorry to say but I find it more like a broken record played again and again

                    Thats exactly the point we are trying to make!

                    That the record is broken and it needs to get fixed.

                    Somehow this message got ignored by everyone chasing the wrong points! The recession never ended. It only got pushed out while making financial condition more dangerous.

                    But people got taken in by Govt propaganda. Builders used this propaganda to trigger the fear and greed characteristics in each one of us and enticed everyone to buy higher and higher. Banks as usual became partner-in-crime of builders.

                    And see where it has led us to. Buying RE is NOT like buying the usual fridge or washing machine. The impact (positive or negative) is much greater.

                    Coming to the IT sector, I have said this time and again. The leadership was forged in earlier years in conditions of total slothfulness. In general, they have absolutely NO IDEA about anything except IT (and their knowledge in that too is about 15 years outdated). Like the builders - and most industrialists in our not-so-competitive India - they hire the most and spend the most predicting strong future growth EXACTLY as the market is poised to go off a cliff!

                    Once again!!!!

                    Now you will start hearing the familiar term (as in 2001 and 2008) ... "Visibility is very poor"! Enjoy!

                    cheers

                    Comment


                    • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                      Market Turmoil Continue.....

                      India's top tech firms denied any plans to trim their payroll or begin a hiring freeze because of macro economic worries in the US, but recruitment agencies and experts tracking the sector warned that these companies are already going slow on hiring experienced professionals.

                      Indian IT companies like MindTree, Infosys, Wipro deny hiring freeze because of US market worries, analysts keep fingers crossed - The Economic Times

                      India weathered the 2008 crisis well, but there are fears that this time round the country is not even ready for a crisis of much lesser magnitude, let alone a full-blown debt default in Europe or a possible US recession.

                      The current account deficit is likely at over 2.7% of GDP, much higher than 1.3% in 2007-08, and foreign direct investments are not as forthcoming. The C Rangarajan-headed Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council expects only $14 billion in inflows in the current year. Even without the crisis, things were not looking good for Indian economy. It has got much worse, though difficult to say how much.

                      Recession 2011: 2011 could be worse for India as US recession looms large - The Economic Times

                      Comment

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