Hereby I will prove how the realty boomers arguments are false.

What are the boomers arguments?

1.) Buy today, houses always increase in value in the long run.
WRONG. House prices cannot increase more than incomes in the long run. This is obvious if you think about it. If house prices go up more than people can afford to pay, buying stops, like it has stopped now.
Even Warren Buffett have pointed out that houses don't increase in intrinsic value. Unless there's a bubble or a crash, house prices simply reflect current salaries and interest rates. If a house is 100 years old, it's value in sheltering you is exactly the same as it was 100 years ago. Then came the maintenance as the house didn't renovate itself. It also has taxes, and insurance - costs that always increase and never go away. The price of the house went up about as much as salaries went up.
To put this is simple perspective, vegetable were costing Rs.5-6/kg when 5 digit salary was a rarity.
Today, the prices have gone up by about 4 times but so have the salaries. So, sounds very much like the reasoning people use now when they talk about how much their father's house appreciated "in the long run" without considering that salaries rose a proportional amount.

2.) Renting is just wastage of money.
WRONG. As said before renting is now much cheaper per month than owning. If you don't rent, you either:

* Have a mortgage, in which case you are throwing away money on interest, tax, insurance, maintenance, costs that increase forever.
* Own outright, in which case you are throwing away the extra income you could get by converting your house to cash, investing in bonds, and renting a similar place to live for much less money. This extra income is sufficient for emergency expenses,retirement etc.

Either way, owners lose much more money every month than renters and that's assuming prices don't correct to very high level & everything is smooth in the economy.

3.) As a renter, you won't have any money left as you will spend them on vacations,cars & hence won't have equity/savings etc.
WRONG. Equity is just money. Renters are actually in a better position to build equity/savings through investing in anything but housing. Renters can get rich much faster than owners, just by investing in conservative stocks & bonds.

* Owners are losing every month by paying much more for interest than they would pay for rent. The tax deduction does not come close to making owing competitive with renting.
* Owners must pay taxes simply to own a house. That is not true of stocks, bonds, or any other asset that can build equity/savings. Only houses are such a guaranteed drain on cash.
* Owners must insure a house, but not most other investments.
* Owners must pay to repair a house, but not a stock or a bond.
* Owners lose their money as house prices reduce. The EMI's remain constant in spite of reduction in rates. At the end of loan tenure, they would have paid almost twice than that of current renters who will buy at logical rates. Keep interest rates in mind. Most of the EMI is not principal amount but interest.

4.) There are great tax advantages to owning a house.
WRONG. Many people believe you can just reduce your income tax by the amount you pay in interest, but they are wrong. Buyers may not deduct interest from income tax; they deduct interest from taxable income. And even then, the tax advantage is not significant compared to the large monthly loss from owning.

If you don't own a house but want to live in one, your choice is to rent a house or rent money to buy a house. To rent money is to take out a loan. A mortgage is a money-rental agreement. House renters take no risk at all, but money-renting owners take on the huge risk of falling house prices, as well as all the costs of repairs, insurance, property taxes, etc.

5.) RE is based on local factors, it's not a national phenomenon. RE of Delhi-NCR,Bangalore & rest of the cities has nothing to do with Pune RE.
WRONG. Lending rates remain the same throughout the country. ALL loans are harder to get. This will drive prices down everywhere.

6.) A rental house provides good income. So, you can rent if you have purchased as investment.
WRONG. Rental houses provide very poor income in hyped areas and certainly cannot cover mortgage payments. Remember there is almost 300% difference between EMIs & rent for the same house.

It's pointless to do the work of being a landlord if you can make more money with no risk, no work, and no state income tax by investing in assured good returns bond.

7.) If owning is a loss in monthly cash flow, but appreciation will make up for it.
WRONG. Appreciation is negative. Prices are going down. It only adds to the injury of already high EMI's.

8.) As soon as prices drop a little, the number of buyers on the sidelines willing to jump back in increases.
WRONG. There are very few buyers left, and those who do want to buy will be limited by increasing difficulty of borrowing now that many house owners are near bankrupt as they don't save anything at the end of the month due to high EMI's.
No one has to buy, but there will be more and more people who have no choice but to sell as their payments rise. That will keep driving prices downward for a long time.

9.) House prices never fall atleast in Pune.
WRONG. If you see the RE scenario of 1996, prices crashed by 50% & took a whole 7+ years to recover.
Exact 1996 scenario may not be there today but strong correction is inevitable across the city.

10.) House prices don't fall to zero like stock prices, so it's safer to invest in real estate.
WRONG. House prices won't be zero, but the equity or the principal amount you paid can be zero or even negative. What you will pay as EMIs later in actual terms is not for the principal amount but only the interest as house prices dip. So, you will be only serving the bank.

11.) Prices will soften gradually, won't crash immediately.
WRONG. Prices are falling off a cliff. No one knows exactly what will happen, but it looks like prices will continue to fall for long time. These are just more manipulation of buyer emotions, to get them to buy even while prices are falling.

12.) The bubble prices were driven by supply and demand alone.
WRONG. Prices were driven by low interest rates and risky loans & good returns for investors in initial phases of boom in 2004-05.
Prices went up, interest rates went up & buyers savings went down. So prices are violating the most basic assumptions about supply and demand.

13.) There is lack of land.
WRONG. Ample of land is available & continue to be even in future in Pune. Sales volume are down. Even in Japan (small country with less land), prices went down. Current prices here are the same as that of 23 years ago. If we really had a housing shortage, there would not be so many vacant rentals.

14.) If you don't own, you'll live in a cheap neighborhood later.
WRONG. For the any given monthly payment, you can rent a much better house than you can buy. Renters live better, not worse. There are downsides to renting, such as being told to move at the end of your lease, or having your rent raised, but since there are thousands of vacant rentals, you can take your pick and be quite happy renting during the crash. There are similar but worse problems for owners anyway, such as being fired and losing your house, or having your interest rate and property taxes adjust upward. Remember, property taxes are forever.

15.) There's always someone predicting a real estate crash.
TRUE, yet irrelevant. There are very real crashes every decade or so. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

16.) Local incomes justify the high prices.
WRONG. The mortgage should be more than your 3 years earning. It is much higher today. Most are already in danger/red zone.

17.) You have to live somewhere.
CORRECT. But that doesn't mean you should waste your life savings on a bad investment. You can live in a better house for much less money by renting during the down slide in RE.

18.) It's not a house, it's a home.
WRONG. Wherever one lives in it is home, be it apartment, condo, bungalow , mansion or house. Calling a house a "home" is a manipulation of your emotions for profit.

19.) If you don't buy now, you'll never get another chance.
WRONG. History proves otherwise.
Here's a beautiful quote from a analyst:-
"The real issue isn't whether you will be stuck being a renter all your life, she says. Its whether you'll get so scared about being shut out that you'll buy at the market's peak and be stuck in a property you can't afford or sell."

20.) It would take major economic recession or a major earthquake that wipes out this area in order for the price to fall by over 50%.
WRONG. Even today, if the prices fall by 50%, there will still be very few people who can buy at this levels due to uncertainty in jobs & most importantly high EMIs. Also, look at the rental rates for equivalent houses. Which loss per month is larger? EMI or rent?

contd....
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  • Hero, we will get back to academic discussions a bit later, after Ive done some number crunching.

    The point I was trying to make is that we're in the very early phase of a deflation / depression. The current blow-off top in the Indian property market has the seeds of the property bear within it. But don't take just my word for it. It appears that atleast one other investor is thinking along the same lines. Some obscure guy by the name of Warren Buffet. :)

    "...the reality is that Mr. Buffett has a record $49 billion in cash."

    " As we saw in 2008 when Mr. Buffett even managed a nice turn on the rescue of Goldman Sachs the old boy knows how to play a crash brilliantly. Then again you can only do this if you have the cash to do it. He has it and would the world’s greatest investor be sat on cash if he really thought there was more money to be made in stocks?"

    Warren Buffett ready for a stock market crash with a record $49bn in cash « ArabianMoney

    Also ...

    Will It Be Inflation Or Deflation? The Answer May Surprise You

    Methinks Mr. Buffet should consult the RE bulls in India ... if he is lucky, he may be able to buy a couple of flats in that $ 49 billion :D and double it to maybe $ 100 billion within a year :D :D

    Mr. Buffet, you don't know what you're missin ! Hurry before builders hike rates by 50% in the next few hours :D
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  • Thx for the article SS. This is my reading of it :-P


    >> That is why gold, silver and other hard assets are going to be so
    >> good to have in the long-term. In the short-term they will experience
    >> wild swings in price, but if you can handle the ride you will be
    >> smiling in the end


    Hard asset include RE as well. So going by this article that means even if you buy RE at current prices, you will be smiling in the end ("if you believe this article"). That has tuned out otbe true so far as people bought in 2009 are laughing, 2008+2010 are smiling and 2011 are content even in present state (leave aside people bought in 2004 to 2006 they are , leave them alone). All RE holders have more to be happy about in coming future as per this article. Same thing has been said so many time all in all a RE holder will be happy in long term , there may be some rough riding for now . Anyway large people do follow this rule as apprant from many brave buyers posting this (and getting bashed as well) on IREF.

    Now question is how various people will pass time during recession (that this article is predicting).

    People sitting on paper gold keep praying no decree is issued during recession , people with physical gold please do not leave your house for vacation (unless you have pop like SS) or pray some big player(s) does not dumps 100 tonnes of it in single day, people with land keep making visit to prop every fortnight for encroachment check or some highway coming up, people with RE go trotting the globe on next recession, your house is far less likely to be carried away by someone in your abscence :).
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  • Originally Posted by SanjanaSingh
    Originally Posted by herohiralal



    Do you think the vested interests in Indian RE are more powerful than BOJ or the Fed ?




    Of course they are .. :)

    well Indian are puppet in hands of world economics drivers .....
    So puppet dance has to continue till the master decides to....
    Puppets can change too. ....

    Why .... The East India company style

    why every company wants to set shop in india .... every celebrity suddenly find India as destination even paris Hilton .....

    Do you think that any of the pawors bhandu will have a say in World economic forum if they be in any ?

    Inflate the asset and some who reap in gets sudden profit ... which goes in consuming mostly advanced economies product.


    Of course they are .. :)

    well Indian are puppet in hands of world economics drivers .....
    So puppet dance has to continue till the master decides to....
    Puppets can change too. ....

    Why .... The East India company style

    why every company wants to set shop in india .... every celebrity suddenly find India as destination even paris Hilton .....

    Do you think that any of the pawors bhandu will have a say in World economic forum if they be in any ?

    Inflate the asset and some who reap in gets sudden profit ... which goes in consuming mostly advanced economies product.
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by compuwalah

    Now question is how various people will pass time during recession (that this article is predicting).

    People sitting on paper gold keep praying no decree is issued during recession , people with physical gold please do not leave your house for vacation (unless you have pop like SS) or pray some big player(s) does not dumps 100 tonnes of it in single day, people with land keep making visit to prop every fortnight for encroachment check or some highway coming up, people with RE go trotting the globe on next recession, your house is far less likely to be carried away by someone in your abscence :).


    Very true:)

    After spending most of savings,parents savings,present and commiting future income to buying expensive RE plus providing for taxes and maintenance , wonder where will happy RE guys find funds to go globe trotting on vacation...maybe a home equity or personal loan to enjoy ???

    There was some hindi film where an agent cons people by promising them to send to dubai , puts them in a boat and dumps them on the other side of Madh Island . Hope that is not the globe trotting :):) these guys will do...
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  • Originally Posted by suryawork
    Very true:)

    There was some hindi film where an agent cons people by promising them to send to dubai , puts them in a boat and dumps them on the other side of Madh Island . Hope that is not the globe trotting :):) these guys will do...


    Movie is - Baap numberi to beta dus numberi ;)
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by compuwalah
    Thx for the article SS. This is my reading of it :-P


    >> That is why gold, silver and other hard assets are going to be so
    >> good to have in the long-term. In the short-term they will experience
    >> wild swings in price, but if you can handle the ride you will be
    >> smiling in the end


    Hard asset include RE as well. So going by this article that means even if you buy RE at current prices, you will be smiling in the end ("if you believe this article"). That has tuned out otbe true so far as people bought in 2009 are laughing, 2008+2010 are smiling and 2011 are content even in present state (leave aside people bought in 2004 to 2006 they are , leave them alone). All RE holders have more to be happy about in coming future as per this article. Same thing has been said so many time all in all a RE holder will be happy in long term , there may be some rough riding for now . Anyway large people do follow this rule as apprant from many brave buyers posting this (and getting bashed as well) on IREF.

    Now question is how various people will pass time during recession (that this article is predicting).

    People sitting on paper gold keep praying no decree is issued during recession , people with physical gold please do not leave your house for vacation (unless you have pop like SS) or pray some big player(s) does not dumps 100 tonnes of it in single day, people with land keep making visit to prop every fortnight for encroachment check or some highway coming up, people with RE go trotting the globe on next recession, your house is far less likely to be carried away by someone in your abscence.


    Compu,

    I think I need to change my writing style ... everyone keeps missing the point I want to make :)

    As I have said before, timing is very important if an investor has to make money / grow wealth. Buy and hold is not such a bright strategy in times of financial instability.

    As you may remember, I gave this deflation call almost a year back on the stock advice thread. At that time, gold was the darling of investors and RE was stable. No big surprise then, that I was thought to be unstable and fit for entry into a mental asylum :D as was the case in 2011, when I urged all those willing to listen with an open mind, to get out of stocks and into gold at 21000 / 22000.

    With utmost respect to everyone here, IREF is sort of a contrarian indicator for me. When I post an intermediate term strategy and it gets attacked by many, I just smile because then I know that my strategy will make me money !!

    Anyway, the point is that now the sentiment has turned and even the RE perma-bulls are reluctantly accepting that a global recession is indeed underway. So how to profit from it ? This is not going to be a quickie, however. RE corrections take years to reach bottoms. I would say that this is the best time frame to build cash reserves. Cash, cash, cash should be your mantra.

    Nothing new there, the vital thing is the timing. That time has arrived. The first phase of a bear market is illiquidity -- we're seeing it now. Then begins the downward adjustment of prices as weak hands begin to bail out. Patience is the only tool you have to use in the RE game.

    I'm not saying that prices will fall proportionately everywhere. Most people fail to make a distinction between ordinary RE and prime, productive RE The former falls hard while the latter may see only a 10% to 20% correction.

    Having made good money from the various asset bubbles so far, I can now laze around waiting for the recession to hit its peak and asset prices to hit their bottoms. I can go trekking, to a pub, to the Costa Del Sol .... and all the while my FDs keep working for me, ticking up the interest. Life is good :D

    BTW, the best bargains were made in 2004 / 2005 --- and not 2008 / 2009

    Another thing, in the linked article, the writer feels that we will have hyperinflation going ahead. Is it a given ? No. Its just conjecture. I don't like to base investment decisions on conjecture. What is fact ? What is reality ?
    That we are in the midst of a grand deflationary supercycle. That is the reality. The deflationary forces are so strong that they are nullifying the co-ordinated efforts of central banks around the world. That is the fact. The CBs are out of ammo, but the deflationary supercycle is not. Ergo, a recession / depression is guaranteed.

    If you want to pick up assets on the cheap in the future, build on your cash reserves NOW. I've done it before -- buy dirt cheap, sell high, move to cash. One cycle completed. Rinse, repeat :)

    Don't be a perma-bull or perma-bear. Crouch like a tiger, waiting for the right moment. Be a rank opportunist and go for the kill. I've done it before -- buy dirt cheap, sell high, move to cash. One cycle completed. Rinse, repeat :)

    Don't be a perma-bull or perma-bear. Crouch like a tiger, waiting for the right moment. Be a rank opportunist and go for the kill. I've done it before -- buy dirt cheap, sell high, move to cash. One cycle completed. Rinse, repeat :)

    Don't be a perma-bull or perma-bear. Crouch like a tiger, waiting for the right moment. Be a rank opportunist and go for the kill. I've done it before -- buy dirt cheap, sell high, move to cash. One cycle completed. Rinse, repeat :)

    Don't be a perma-bull or perma-bear. Crouch like a tiger, waiting for the right moment. Be a rank opportunist and go for the kill. I've done it before -- buy dirt cheap, sell high, move to cash. One cycle completed. Rinse, repeat :)

    Don't be a perma-bull or perma-bear. Crouch like a tiger, waiting for the right moment. Be a rank opportunist and go for the kill.
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by SanjanaSingh
    Compu,

    If you want to pick up assets on the cheap in the future, build on your cash reserves NOW. I've done it before -- buy dirt cheap, sell high, move to cash. One cycle completed. Rinse, repeat :)

    Don't be a perma-bull or perma-bear. Crouch like a tiger, waiting for the right moment. Be a rank opportunist and go for the kill.


    This is very easy to say but very difficult to practice. You might do it successfully once but repeating it all over again may not be possible.

    If you are doing this ...well, good for you :)
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by Venkytalks
    So people will go to Navi Mumbai, Gurgaon, NOIDA and the like.

    India needs 10 new cities like Delhi Mumbai to absorb the shift of rural population.

    Govt failure (in road and city building) means chaotic urbanization and shooting suburban real estate prices = high prices for poor quality real estate

    New cities required : Yes,
    Govt has failed on infra front : Yes,
    But will better infra in suburb reduce RE prices from builder side : No.
    Infact, look at the land rates of NC, Amanora, BR etc. it is at throw away prices, yet prices are high. Better infra in suburb, more FSI blah, blah will reduce prices is just builder gimmicks to gain more profit. Look at what Hiranandani did at Powai, which was meant for MIG-LIG population.

    Unless buyers stop buying, even if land, material, labor is given free of cost, builders will see how much they can squeeze. End user is the king, if s/he stay out, prices will fall, no matter which part or location it is at.

    Man, if better infra, good governance would have been the only criteria, RE prices in US would have never fallen. :D
    CommentQuote
  • Rise in bank NPAs

    Originally Posted by mangoman2012
    QE (Quantitative Easing) by US federal government is going to stop.

    The very thought is giving shivers to Indian finance minister Mr.P.Chidambaram. With a mere 1-2% fall in Indian markets Mr.Chidambaram is coming on TV and almost begging to foreign investors to stay invested.
    He very well know that money has no heart. Whether you like it or not we are staring at a huge crash.

    +1. Add to it the fact, that India has again been rated just above 'Junk' status, which has made investment in India even more less lucrative. Policy paralysis is taking a toll on it & when someone points it out, like current CII Prez & former Infy chief & gives praises on Narendra Modi, Infy gets slapped with IT notice of INR 500 Cr. This Govt wants to cling on to power at any costs & if you see all RE boom took place when Congress was in power & had lot of scams in it. It is this very money they make from scams which goes into RE. As their investments from ill gotten wealth are giving negative returns now, they too are now scared.

    The people who talk about and worry about 5% GDP will see the contraction of our GDP within couple of years. Congress has to pay for its sins. Knowing the consequences now Indian Finance minister is working overtime to save the share markets. His single point agenda is to save the share market and nothing else.

    Feel good factor is already dead. Ratan Tata has already said that he has informed to Cyrus Mistry that they should now look outside India for better markets & see to it that in next 5-6 years, more than 75% of revenues of Tata group come from outside. Some European countries have given open offer to Tata Sons with lot of lucrative offers if Tata decides to shift their HO from Mumbai & get the company registered in EU. Doesn't this show us in bad light, when one can dare to ask over 100 yr old company to shift its base outside India ? :o

    Already markets are artificially jacked up by FII money which comes into India by spill over effect from Europe, Japan and US QE. If US decides to stop and the bond yields increase in US, then the money which flowed into India will go back to US in no time.This will cause a huge crash in Indian share markets.

    With gold being sold in large scale & US Fed informing that they won't be printing money as they did in 2009 now, people are again putting their money back in US$. I spoke with our company executive who looks after ECB (external commercial borrowing) section & he said it will be become more difficult for Indian cos to raise money via ECB route than earlier due to deteriorating situation here. :(

    Real Estate is un-affordable for end user
    Drinking water scarcity increasing
    Job opportunities are dwindling
    Banks are making losses
    Farmers are struggling
    Power generation , the less said it is better

    +1000000

    But dont forget. This country is going to pay for its sins.

    +1.

    And you said about banks above, here are couple of news from banking industry :-

    HSBC Signals 14,000 Job Cuts in $3 Billion Savings Plan :-

    HSBC Signals 14,000 Job Cuts in $3 Billion Savings Plan - Bloomberg


    Net NPA rises 51% for 39 listed banks in FY 2012-13 over previous year :-

    MUMBAI: Slowdown in the economy and higher cost of funds has resulted in listed commercial banks showing a 51% rise in bad loans in the fiscal year 2012-13 over the previous year. A study by npasources.com shows that bad loans after making provisions or net NPA rose 51% to Rs 92825 crore for the fiscal year end March 2013 for 39 listed bank.

    Net NPA rises 51% for 39 listed banks in FY 2012-13 over previous year - Economic Times


    ^^ Now despite all such news, rising NPAs, high inflation, poor gdp growth etc., if one still wants to believe RE growth story, well, then even god can't save them.
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by SanjanaSingh
    Compu,

    I think I need to change my writing style ... everyone keeps missing the point I want to make :)
    .

    My comments were on the 2nd article link in your post. The quoted text is from the website.

    Originally Posted by SanjanaSingh

    As I have said before, timing is very important if an investor has to make money / grow wealth. Buy and hold is not such a bright strategy in times of financial instability.

    As you may remember, I gave this deflation call almost a year back on the stock advice thread. At that time, gold was the darling of investors and RE was stable. No big surprise then, that I was thought to be unstable and fit for entry into a mental asylum :D as was the case in 2011, .

    Apologies but you call on gold was that it was going to hit 2600 soon (you were not the only one but many other people had same view). In reality the gold price was stagnant for long when the gammas were touching zero you were missing from the forum for long time.

    Apologies but you call on gold was that it was going to hit 2600 soon (you were not the only one but many other people had same view). In reality the gold price was stagnant for long when the gammas were touching zero you were missing from the forum for long time.

    Apologies but you call on gold was that it was going to hit 2600 soon (you were not the only one but many other people had same view). In reality the gold price was stagnant for long when the gammas were touching zero you were missing from the forum for long time.

    Apologies but you call on gold was that it was going to hit 2600 soon (you were not the only one but many other people had same view). In reality the gold price was stagnant for long when the gammas were touching zero you were missing from the forum for long time.
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by compuwalah
    Apologies but you call on gold was that it was going to hit 2600 soon (you were not the only one but many other people had same view). In reality the gold price was stagnant for long when the gammas were touching zero you were missing from the forum for long time.

    Compu,

    Atleast do some research before making false accusations. This forecast was made on 6/8/2012, in reply to one of Wiseman's posts :

    http://www.indianrealestateforum.com/507418-post4471.html ]

    Wiseman,

    I'm not disputing that gold will continue its bull run .... Eventually.

    But first, all hope needs to be crushed for a renewed interest to emerge.

    When gold and silver pierce their last year's lows, then the smart money will come back.

    I guess gold between $ 1200 - 1300 and silver between $ 19 - 22 are great opportunities.

    There, I've stuck my neck out !


    To eliminate your doubts , here's more proof

    https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/other-forums/general-real-estate-discussion/2772-how-to-sell-prime-family-land?p=4450#post2772

    https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/ncr-real-estate/faridabad-real-estate/1055-boomtown-faridabad?p=117703#post117703

    http://www.indianrealestateforum.com/507418-post4471.html

    http://www.indianrealestateforum.com/508685-post4487.html

    http://www.indianrealestateforum.com/535907-post4618.html

    http://www.indianrealestateforum.com/491853-post4359.html

    https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/other-forums/general-real-estate-discussion/2260-real-estate-pre-launches-come-under-ministry-scrutiny?p=117686#post117686

    And the following is an excerpt from your own post in the discussion :

    Sanjana camp believe in remaining agile and move the asset between cash / PMs / RE as the situation is. As of now PM look unattractive, cash looks better and one should look at oppurtunity to park it in RE. There is no notion of this big end of the world crisis.

    http://www.indianrealestateforum.com/497110-post4387.html ]

    Do you forget so easily what you yourself have said in the past ?

    More proof :

    https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/other-forums/legal-vastu-home-loans/home-loans-in-india/2268-icici-bank-to-focus-on-financial-planning?p=117687#post117687

    I specifically cautioned against buying PMs in reply to a query :

    If you have a core position in gold, approx atleast 10% of portfolio, dont buy at these rates.

    If you dont have any gold, buy small amounts at regular intervals. Preferably on the large dips, say 5 gms at a time. Channel part of your savings.

    Cannot advise taking a big risk and going all in at this point of time.

    http://www.indianrealestateforum.com/497275-post4390.html ]

    Need still more proof, Compu ? Here you go :

    http://www.indianrealestateforum.com/498087-post4399.html

    http://www.indianrealestateforum.com/483321-post4330.html

    http://www.indianrealestateforum.com/480858-post5709.html

    There is also a post wherein I specifically said that I was selling half my gold holdings at INR 30,000/- , but I cannot find it right now. The post is somewhere on this very thread. After all the trouble you have put me through just to prove your false accusations as --- well, false -- perhaps you should take the time and efforts to find that post ?

    I went away from the forum AFTER putting out my forecasts on gold and the coming recession and came back after I was proved right.

    Next time, I hope, you will be more careful before making any accusations -- it reflects badly on your credibility, not mine. -- it reflects badly on your credibility, not mine. -- it reflects badly on your credibility, not mine. -- it reflects badly on your credibility, not mine.
    CommentQuote
  • Apologies you had to take so much effort for this. But somehow I am not able to find the thread. I remember distictly your call of 2600 on gold.

    Its only later part you have turned bearish. Let me know you deny the fact that you were super bullish on gold one time.
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by compuwalah
    Apologies you had to take so much effort for this. But somehow I am not able to find the thread. I remember distictly your call of 2600 on gold.


    Prove it.

    Its only later part you have turned bearish. Let me know you deny the fact that you were super bullish on gold one time.


    This is the last time I'm saying it, Compu. Unlike you, I'm neither a perma-bull nor a perma-bear. I position my money as the situation changes. Upto a certain point I was bullish on gold. I benefited from that. After a certain point I became bearish on gold. I benefited from that too. At some point in the future I may again become bullish on gold. Again I will benefit.

    BTW, what do you think of the forecast of $ 1200 - 1300 gold & $ 19 - 22 silver given on 6/8/2012 ?

    I thought you would have the decency to accept your mistake in the face of the proof provided. Yet you continue with your baseless mudslinging.

    This is the last time I'm saying it, Compu. Unlike you, I'm neither a perma-bull nor a perma-bear. I position my money as the situation changes. Upto a certain point I was bullish on gold. I benefited from that. After a certain point I became bearish on gold. I benefited from that too. At some point in the future I may again become bullish on gold. Again I will benefit.

    BTW, what do you think of the forecast of $ 1200 - 1300 gold & $ 19 - 22 silver given on 6/8/2012 ?

    I thought you would have the decency to accept your mistake in the face of the proof provided. Yet you continue with your baseless mudslinging.
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  • Originally Posted by suryawork
    Very true:)

    After spending most of savings,parents savings,present and commiting future income to buying expensive RE plus providing for taxes and maintenance , wonder where will happy RE guys find funds to go globe trotting on vacation...maybe a home equity or personal loan to enjoy ???



    If Indians start availing home equity loans then we are in serious trouble. India dosent have proper bankruptcy laws so the ability for an individual or a company to file for bankruptcy and start all over again dosent exist.

    Some private banks do send adverts on availing home equity loans to senior citizens. Will be interesting to see if people really go for such loans.
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  • Originally Posted by realacres

    Man, if better infra, good governance would have been the only criteria, RE prices in US would have never fallen. :D


    Well said. RE is an asset class and like stocks and gold prices they do for many yr trade above real value and for many yrs below real value.
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