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Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

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Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

Last updated: November 1 2016
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  • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

    Originally posted by spmohan View Post
    Interesting isn't it ?

    how a graphic captures time ... past / present / future !

    it lays bare all our biases / prejudices, expectations / hopes all in a single blink !

    as for the political fulminations, as usual lot of idiotic comments to say the least.
    Agreed.

    Japan was one humongous bubble. At one time, RE of Tokyo was more valuable than whole of USA.

    The graph says it all.

    Japs were busy buying US buildings also - and the US businessmen were happy selling it to the Japs at inflated values - which seemed sensible only in comparison to Tokyo prices.

    The comman American was alarmed that his country was being sold. Books like Rising Sun got written.

    American businessman laughed all the way to the bank. Japanese banks were left holding the baby - they are still holding that baby which has grown into a zombie.

    American banksters got out of the current bubble also - US and German/Euro taxpayer got to hold the baby this time.

    Dont underestimate American businessmen. They make money going and coming
    Venky (Please read watch a or before posting)

    Comment


    • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

      Originally posted by ruchika1 View Post
      that post actually dint deserve a reply. ur logic application wont apply on tht post.
      looks like the person who posted it was born 2 years back. thats y he has applied simple 1X 2 = 2 formula. he is not familiar/ aware of the fact that in india 10 times increase in price has already taken place in last 7 years
      ru chi san !! think u from Japan hence not happy with the Japan prop post just kidding


      You got my birthdate almost correct but I was born three year back on this forum and I can see that you are a infant of 9 months (you birth date being Jan 2012).

      Just like it does not make sense to post a Japan prop curve in a Indian prop forum, the reply should be taken in same context.

      Please enlighten us with the correct calculations and also would like your opnion about the thread title vs market reality .
      Last edited by compuwalah; September 27 2012, 07:39 AM.

      Comment


      • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

        Originally posted by Venkytalks View Post
        Agreed.
        ...
        Dont underestimate American businessmen. They make money going and coming
        Generally never try to underestimate anyone let alone them, if i was i then would have been into gold / re.

        My father used say this to me when i was young

        A Very clever person learns from others mistakes
        A Clever person learns from one's own mistakes
        An Idiot will keep repeating his till eternity or otherwise as decided/dictated for him/her !

        As simple as it sounds, Never got it back then !, thought he was a bit senile ! now i do know who was senile back then !

        Comment


        • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

          as for RE...

          Powers to be have already decided the direction and the future !

          first stone has already been cast.

          Now it is just a matter of time !

          Comment


          • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

            Originally posted by spmohan View Post
            Generally never try to underestimate anyone let alone them, if i was i then would have been into gold / re.

            My father used say this to me when i was young

            A Very clever person learns from others mistakes
            A Clever person learns from one's own mistakes
            An Idiot will keep repeating his till eternity or otherwise as decided/dictated for him/her !
            How true !!!
            spmohan !! why you did not post this few years back. (but maybe I would have ignored it same like you)
            You must have surely missed few oppurtunities by ignoring these words.

            Now with my long career experience , watching so many people in the time frame, this statement makes so much sense.
            Last edited by compuwalah; September 27 2012, 10:39 AM.

            Comment


            • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

              Symptoms != Cause

              Originally posted by Venkytalks View Post
              On the other hand - 1983 to 85 is the ideal time frame where the govt policies of Rajiv Gandhi were very similar to the current one.

              We had just come out of the 70s recession and entered Raeganomics (at some point, Ben and Fed will have to adopt Volker's extreme measures to get the poison out of the system - otherwise Zombie economies and banks and Japans 2 lost decades will repeat in USA)

              Gold and oil had just finished bubbling over.

              Indian currency was collapsing and oil and gold in Rupees kept bubbling well into the mid eighties

              Inflation in India was high even on top of the already high 70s inflation.

              Middle class got hold of TV, stereos and car (just as we now are getting laptops, iPads and smart phones)

              Real estate rose like a rocket.

              Why do you not believe that if the same Congress govt led by the offsping of the same Congress leaders adopting the same type of corruption, license permit raj and slow opening up of economy - it will result in the same type of response?

              2+2 was 4 in 1984. Why would you get a different answer in 2012?

              We have discussed this many times in the last 3 years - and I have always maintained that we are going back to the 80s. (we had a great movie called BAck to the Future in 1984 or so, which I saw on VCRs which also had made an appearance in the 80s.

              Havent the last 3 years convinced you that we are running through the 80s again?

              Venky,

              You trotted out all the symptoms of life back then, compared only ONE of them - so-called reforms by the same Congress - and declared that we are at the same point as early 1980s ready for takeoff.

              We see what we want to see, only!

              Now let us come to the reasons why we are definitely NOT back in the 1980s ...

              1. Costs: Back then, we were just emerging out of (Nehruvian) socialism. I remember most people hardly having any spare cash but most people having very high quality education.

              2. Quality: Bangalore became the hub for IT simply because it was the powerhouse for Scientific Institutions (both Defense and Civilian). We started the IT revolution by exporting our highly trained and educated minds to the US and this formed the nucleus around which the IT revolution grew

              3. Start of the Credit Boom in the West. This led to a massive expansion in the demand for any and everything (including software manpower and later engineering goods).

              4. Relatively corruption-free society. Our moral and ethical standards then was far removed from what it has become today. Today the sum total of money swindled in only the major scams easily exceeds our annual GDP by 300% (3 Trillion $$$).

              Now let us come to today ...

              We have almost completely priced ourselves out of the cost arbitrage business. Unfortunately, our greedy IT czars never saw it fit to migrate this country up the value chain. So, we are starting to go back into becoming the e-coolies of the world.

              Then again, while we have an explosion in Educational Institutions, its mostly a dhandha today. Entrance procedures are mostly about, "Have 6 lakhs? DEposit in box and walk thru the portals". Emerge out in 2 years with 3 lakh job "guaranteed".

              Most importantly, the world is utterly and completely devoid of any energy or appetite for growth in the next decade. Their main worry is how to dig themselves out of the massive debt hole.

              My own take is ... While we were poised for a takeoff back then with all conditions ripe to assist us, today we are poised to actually just hang in there (or even crash in slow-motion) given the environment conditions around us.

              Its not anyone's fault. Simply the wrong conditions to attempt a takeoff.

              cheers

              Comment


              • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                Great post Wisey.

                Originally posted by wiseman View Post
                Venky,

                You trotted out all the symptoms of life back then, compared only ONE of them - so-called reforms by the same Congress - and declared that we are at the same point as early 1980s ready for takeoff.

                We see what we want to see, only!

                Now let us come to the reasons why we are definitely NOT back in the 1980s ...

                1. Costs: Back then, we were just emerging out of (Nehruvian) socialism. I remember most people hardly having any spare cash but most people having very high quality education.

                Thats true

                2. Quality: Bangalore became the hub for IT simply because it was the powerhouse for Scientific Institutions (both Defense and Civilian). We started the IT revolution by exporting our highly trained and educated minds to the US and this formed the nucleus around which the IT revolution grew

                Partly true - IT revolution really took off in the 2000s, but 1980s was when the foundation got laid.

                3. Start of the Credit Boom in the West. This led to a massive expansion in the demand for any and everything (including software manpower and later engineering goods).

                This was related to baby boomer demographics. Right now, India is in the same stage - for good or bad remains to be seen

                4. Relatively corruption-free society. Our moral and ethical standards then was far removed from what it has become today. Today the sum total of money swindled in only the major scams easily exceeds our annual GDP by 300% (3 Trillion $$$).

                Not true - or partially true as applicable to our parents i.e middle class. Otherwise 70s and 80s were extremely corrupt with licence permit raj

                Now let us come to today ...

                We have almost completely priced ourselves out of the cost arbitrage business.

                Rupee will depreciate to accomodate.

                Unfortunately, our greedy IT czars never saw it fit to migrate this country up the value chain.

                True

                So, we are starting to go back into becoming the e-coolies of the world.

                We always were and will be. Nothing wrong - ecoolie is a big employer of middle class with adequate pay


                Then again, while we have an explosion in Educational Institutions, its mostly a dhandha today.

                Agree. Pathetic quality

                Entrance procedures are mostly about, "Have 6 lakhs? DEposit in box and walk thru the portals".

                True

                Emerge out in 2 years with 3 lakh job "guaranteed".

                Alas, no job guarantee - most of those emerging are unemployable, will need retraining to deserve even 3L per ANNUM

                Most importantly, the world is utterly and completely devoid of any energy or appetite for growth in the next decade.

                Except in India - if we dont shoot ourselves in the foot

                Their main worry is how to dig themselves out of the massive debt hole.

                They cant - once you spend the money - it is gone. Doesnt come back


                My own take is ... While we were poised for a takeoff back then with all conditions ripe to assist us,

                Actually 80s were a very poor quality opening up of economy, like todays Congress. More about crony capitalism than real break out. Real take off was in 1992.

                today we are poised to actually just hang in there (or even crash in slow-motion) given the environment conditions around us.

                True - unless MMS delivers - a big IF.

                Its not anyone's fault. Simply the wrong conditions to attempt a takeoff.

                cheers
                There is nothing wrong in the conditions - it is COngress politics which is wrong. Such corrupt and cynical people cant do anything real.

                Instead of improving education, they are busy destroying it with reservation and dumbing down of exams.

                Instead of reforms - we have got crony capitalism of the worst type.

                And in such conditions - India WONT take off - it will get inflation, depreciation and especially Real Estate inflation.

                Buying RE today is like saying - India will rot in its current gutter - better buy whatever value is created and hoard it/ black market it
                Venky (Please read watch a or before posting)

                Comment


                • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                  Originally posted by Venkytalks View Post
                  Great post Wisey.



                  There is nothing wrong in the conditions - it is COngress politics which is wrong. Such corrupt and cynical people cant do anything real.

                  Instead of improving education, they are busy destroying it with reservation and dumbing down of exams.

                  Instead of reforms - we have got crony capitalism of the worst type.

                  And in such conditions - India WONT take off - it will get inflation, depreciation and especially Real Estate inflation.

                  Buying RE today is like saying - India will rot in its current gutter - better buy whatever value is created and hoard it/ black market it

                  Thanks, Venky!

                  I suppose this is the progression of "Kaliyug" in terms of moral degradation and one can only watch it happen.

                  I would very much like our country to grow like we did from the mid-80s to mid-00s. But I think that was a confluence of 1-time emergence of India from socialism and a shortage economy meeting Credit Expansionary boom in the West. So, China and India rode on that slingshot effect (on different trajectories) and we have now reached where we have.

                  One thing where we may resemble the early 80s. Infosys, NIIT were all born in 1980/81. Wipro, HCL, ICIM, ECIL, CMC were all products of the mid/late - 70s. At that time practically no one anticipated (not even NRN, etc, who I have met as the boss of a 32-lakh turnover outfit) what IT would become!

                  Today, with most of these sectors a spent force, I'm looking at that sector which is in the same position now as IT in the early 80s, which will lead India's next slingshot ride into the next 2 decades!

                  Any guesses what it could be? Whatever it is, it has to be a sunrise business, employ a large mass of people, have rising demand and margins (not to mention competitive edge for us over others).

                  Any guesses, anybody?

                  cheers

                  Comment


                  • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                    i know 2 for sure!

                    wisey

                    i can suggest 3 guaranteed return high margin business that India has an edge over rest of the world. they are:

                    1. YT : YOGA TECHNOLOGY


                    We can surely have few more companies to compete with Baba Ramdev for a share in his 1000s of crore income by selling yoga to the world. let us capitalize this ancient art of wellbeing.

                    2. Astrology: This unorganized powerhouse of money (mostly black) can be tamed and unleashed upon the world with branding (by Indian govt-which it has already done by awarding phds in the field) as the most legitimate science in the world.

                    3.Spiritual education: Again it is possible to give Sri Sri Ravishankar a run for his money in this field. Especially with people worldover in miserable condition only looking for answers which do a roundabout to their questions thereby mesmerizing them.

                    I can imagine if well plotted and scripted and with government backing we can achieve much higher gdp than before with such initiatives.

                    What do you think?







                    Originally posted by wiseman View Post
                    Thanks, Venky!

                    I suppose this is the progression of "Kaliyug" in terms of moral degradation and one can only watch it happen.

                    I would very much like our country to grow like we did from the mid-80s to mid-00s. But I think that was a confluence of 1-time emergence of India from socialism and a shortage economy meeting Credit Expansionary boom in the West. So, China and India rode on that slingshot effect (on different trajectories) and we have now reached where we have.

                    One thing where we may resemble the early 80s. Infosys, NIIT were all born in 1980/81. Wipro, HCL, ICIM, ECIL, CMC were all products of the mid/late - 70s. At that time practically no one anticipated (not even NRN, etc, who I have met as the boss of a 32-lakh turnover outfit) what IT would become!

                    Today, with most of these sectors a spent force, I'm looking at that sector which is in the same position now as IT in the early 80s, which will lead India's next slingshot ride into the next 2 decades!

                    Any guesses what it could be? Whatever it is, it has to be a sunrise business, employ a large mass of people, have rising demand and margins (not to mention competitive edge for us over others).

                    Any guesses, anybody?

                    cheers

                    Comment


                    • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                      Originally posted by StraightDriv View Post
                      wisey

                      i can suggest 3 guaranteed return high margin business that India has an edge over rest of the world. they are:

                      1. YT : YOGA TECHNOLOGY


                      We can surely have few more companies to compete with Baba Ramdev for a share in his 1000s of crore income by selling yoga to the world. let us capitalize this ancient art of wellbeing.

                      2. Astrology: This unorganized powerhouse of money (mostly black) can be tamed and unleashed upon the world with branding (by Indian govt-which it has already done by awarding phds in the field) as the most legitimate science in the world.

                      3.Spiritual education: Again it is possible to give Sri Sri Ravishankar a run for his money in this field. Especially with people worldover in miserable condition only looking for answers which do a roundabout to their questions thereby mesmerizing them.

                      I can imagine if well plotted and scripted and with government backing we can achieve much higher gdp than before with such initiatives.

                      What do you think?

                      I shall come back to discuss the 3 ideas you have provided a little later ...


                      Let me take off tangentially on what factors colluded to precisely make IT the exclusive Indian turf for enough time to help us gain some sort of dominance ...

                      - IT at the heart of American life (America at the heart of global business)

                      - English as the basis for doing business in IT (note we were not initially too strong in the EU/Japan/China regions)

                      - availability of a good number of skilled and trained programmers

                      - Lots of Indians also migrating to US to pursue higher studies and set up there, thus significantly establishing credibility of Indians in this field.

                      This ramped up the first model of IT exports ... Body shopping. In this period of 15 years or so we also ramped up on the

                      - Then came the Internet that gradually eliminated the need for onsite presence (except for human need for that)

                      By this time around 20 years had gone by and it became too late for competition to establish a hold on this market

                      Also note that the Internet is a double-edged weapon. The Philippines has, in a short period of a few years, overtaken India as the Call Center Destination for the US. No reason why other countries cannot (and will not) overtake us as the programming destination for our customers.

                      ............ fast forward to today ...

                      What are the things the world needs today, which is entrenched within their society as a mass consumption item, where we may have substantial cost advantage and many others may not have the capability to handle! ...

                      I was thinking in the lines of Medicine/Healthcare ... the West has lots of money still, their population is ageing and healthcare is a cost nightmare (and in many cases its in short supply).

                      So ...

                      - Cheap Generics (and other drugs)

                      - Tele-medicine as the first stage of diagnosis

                      - Operative and Post-operative care in India (later Indian Docs can either go over there to operate or do it via robotics from here (Medical Tourism)

                      - Similarly, Nursing care in various forms

                      - Preventive care (including alternative methods that are natural - Yoga may fit in here, but they also have a thriving industry there already!)


                      The second area I was looking at was for India to become the Food supplier to the Western world. We might see specified Export "Zones" be allowed to grow food of a kind we might not allow here (GM and other Frankenfoods ), meant for exports at higher than local prices but cheaper than they can produce.

                      This was a wild one ...

                      Then comes Retirement. A number of Americans are looking to settle during their final years outside the US. Why not create exclusive zones where they can come and park their billions and live a peaceful life (cheap food, stay and healthcare all rolled into one!?)

                      These are areas where we have a large trained population already engaged, they have a generic need and maybe we will see a fit?

                      Any other thoughts?

                      Oops, I forgot entertainment. Given that Westerners spend an inordinate amount of time and money on entertainment, we could figure out how to offer them this as well.

                      One interesting side-effect would be that this would also attract a number of 2nd and nth generation Indian to set up shop here and play it both ways. I had a cousin's kid stay with us for 6 weeks while he did an internship with ING and, though he had an accent (born and brought up there), he could easily take the auto or bus or metro to the CBD and basically took care of transport and food all by himself within a few days of orientation - and he was only 19! When he was leaving, I asked him, "when are you coming back for a job" and he was not too surprised or put off by that question.

                      I see a lot of Indian Americans looking seriously at returning of conditions allow them to!

                      cheers
                      Last edited by wiseman; September 28 2012, 12:02 AM.

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