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Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

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Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

Last updated: November 1 2016
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  • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

    Originally posted by fatichar View Post
    Who feels that "one can invest into anything to do with real estate & make merry...for ever"?
    No offense to anyone whose name is specified. But the very fact that most people on this forum (other than the "bears") believe and state that prices are only going to rise in future and not going out and buying today implies one is going to suffer a higher price tomorrow means "forever".

    Unless one qualifies the advice with "Buy upto this price" or "Price will rise to a maximum of such-n-such". In which case there is a cap on "forever".

    Otherwise, by implication, not mentioning a time or price cap, its forever (or at least as far as one can imagine), isn't it?

    And who has ever placed a cap on their advice?

    For example, take the case of Amitgupta00, who states that price will rise around 15%-20% for next 10-15 years. Of course, he is not kind enough to cap this by saying it will stagnate after that, or it may fall after that.

    To me, its as good as saying forever!

    Sorry, Amit, only using it as an example to make my point!

    cheers

    Comment


    • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

      wiseman: Frankly...I was waiting for the questions raised to sink in the questioner's minds...the answer would have dawned on them automatically!

      You've hit it right on the head...& I couldn't have said it better. Empirical data shows that 70% of the developers who were "hot & happening" in the 1995 period are no more in business. So much for an asset that is built only to go up.

      I can stick my neck out & say it may be an identical % (or probably more) for the investors in that period. They would have given up the ghost long time before this "infinite" bull run started & in all probability they'll be the ones boarding it in it's final stages.

      Sad...

      Cheers!

      Comment


      • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

        What's next ?

        RBI’s January rate cut under cloud - The Times of India

        RBI is concerned about reduced savings and savings being directed into Gold and RE as a result of lower interest rates in FD. Lets see what RBI does in Jan.

        Comment


        • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

          Originally posted by expat101 View Post
          Now, the average wage of a Non H1B IT worker in NY is a little over $200K (5-6 years of experience and in financial services) other industries are probably 20-30% less but there are no other industries!.
          This is not right. NY has good many numberof financial companies and employ a large number of IT folks (and handout designation of 'vice president' like halloween candy), however, $200K is NOT an average salary...and most people who earn 200K are aware of that.

          Comment


          • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

            Originally posted by Karan Dheer View Post
            Empirical data shows that 70% of the developers who were "hot & happening" in the 1995 period are no more in business.
            The reason is simple. They were sidelined with new breed of builders who do not have any "ethical" thing attached to them a. either from Mumbai, Delhi, Bangalore who are predominantly marwaris, punjabis, sindhis, agarwal etc. (In short, chaps who are "should-be-killed-if-you-find-it-helpless-in-an-alley" type). or b. bhumi-putras having names like kolhe, landge, wanjale, paradeshi, bodake etc.etc. (in short, chaps who should have been in hanged long back).

            Comment


            • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

              I would like to say "Past performance is not indicative of future performance".

              Originally posted by puser View Post
              WAKAD is fast approaching to 5000 psft. from 2500 psft to 5000 psft i saw rates getting doubled in span of 3 years

              Comment


              • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                Originally posted by mymarji
                Log to jaroor kum honge....guaranteed.
                LoL. Did anyone attend DNA RE exhibi which was held yesterday & today ?
                Ofcourse, in newspaper it will come that they got over-whelming response (& the projects displayed are same 2-3 year old ones ).

                Originally posted by AnkitS
                A different opinion..
                Spain, USA, UK, etc are "developed" economies and India is a "developing" economy..the dynamics involved are completely different...I don't see a USA or Spain like situation in India for many years ahead..we're just not at that level of maturity as an economy..

                I have this friend (and his wife) who have been working in the US for more than 5 years now..they have decided to consciously stay on RENT there but are buying RE assets in India..even though the ROIs for mortgages in US are a meagre 2.75% (on an average)...the underlying fear being that a housing market purchase will forever deteriorate..again..don't see this situation happening in INDIA anytime soon..

                In my opinion, a comparison with an economy in a similar situation as INDIA is currently would be more fruitful..
                Look at China. Economy is at lowest in past several years, just over 7% & all indications that it will fall. Look at the RE price correction which has taken place in Shanghai. See the 'Ghost Towns' where thousands of flats are lying vacant (and these are not based on DP road or PROPOSED water either ).

                India is economy is not like the West, nor is it like the East. It runs as per CREDAI's directive, right ?
                If you are happy, you are successful.

                Comment


                • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                  Originally posted by realacres View Post
                  LoL. Did anyone attend DNA RE exhibi which was held yesterday & today ?
                  Ofcourse, in newspaper it will come that they got over-whelming response (& the projects displayed are same 2-3 year old ones ).


                  Look at China. Economy is at lowest in past several years, just over 7% & all indications that it will fall. Look at the RE price correction which has taken place in Shanghai. See the 'Ghost Towns' where thousands of flats are lying vacant (and these are not based on DP road or PROPOSED water either ).

                  India is economy is not like the West, nor is it like the East. It runs as per CREDAI's directive, right ?
                  CREDAI is just a lobby of the builders and cannot think beyond the builder's interest. The other job of CREDAI is the facilitate the payment of bribe for obtaining approvals. CREDAI is not a legal body and has no power and is run by highly corrupt people

                  Comment


                  • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                    Falling growth, high inflation risks to stability: RBI

                    Risks to India's macro-economic stability have increased on the back of an economic slowdown, high inflation, and ballooning fiscal and current account deficits, the Reserve Bank of India said in a report on Friday.


                    A slowdown in both domestic savings and investment demand, as well as a moderation in consumption have also emerged as threats to macroeconomic stability, the central bank said in its financial stability report (FSR).

                    "The overall macro-economic risks in the Indian financial system seem to have increased since the publication of the previous FSR in June 2012," the RBI wrote in the report.

                    India's economy is expected to grow 5.7-5.9 percent for the fiscal year ending in March, the slowest since 2002/03. Growth prospects also remain below the recent trend of double-digits, with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh this week calling the five-year government plan for 8 percent expansion "ambitious."

                    The current account deficit also remains a concern as Asia's third largest economy has seen exports fall due to weak demand in key markets like the United States and Europe, while imports of gold and oil have remained high.

                    On the fiscal side, the government could see a shortfall in tax and non-tax revenue because of the economic slowdown, and is at risk of overshooting its expenditure targets, the RBI said.

                    The RBI added data from banks showed a significant portion of foreign exchange exposures at companies remained unhedged, posing another risk to macro-economic stability.

                    "This is especially disquieting given that the exchange rate volatility has been higher in India in comparison to other emerging market currencies as well as those of advanced economies," the central bank wrote in the report.

                    The RBI also said profitability at banks may come under pressure in coming quarters with gross non-performing assets (NPA) continuing to tread above the credit growth and on the back of rising slippages.

                    State-run banks saw a high degree of deterioration in asset quality compared with its peers. The gross NPA for all banks rose to 3.6 percent at the end of September versus 2.9 percent at the end of March, the central bank said.

                    The RBI said if the adverse macroeconomic conditions persists, the system level gross NPA could rise from 3.6 percent at end of September to 4 percent by end of March 2013 and 4.4 percent by end of March 2014.

                    Falling growth, high inflation risks to stability: RBI - Reuters
                    If you are happy, you are successful.

                    Comment


                    • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                      what you are saying is 2 years old already ... here is the latest ( from Dec 18, 2012)
                      Emerging market sector of the day: Chinese real estate

                      Originally posted by realacres View Post


                      Look at China. Economy is at lowest in past several years, just over 7% & all indications that it will fall. Look at the RE price correction which has taken place in Shanghai. See the 'Ghost Towns' where thousands of flats are lying vacant (and these are not based on DP road or PROPOSED water either ).

                      India is economy is not like the West, nor is it like the East. It runs as per CREDAI's directive, right ?

                      Comment

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