Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

Collapse
X
Collapse

Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

Last updated: November 1 2016
12768 | Posts
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

    Originally posted by suryawork View Post
    Very true

    There was some hindi film where an agent cons people by promising them to send to dubai , puts them in a boat and dumps them on the other side of Madh Island . Hope that is not the globe trotting these guys will do...
    Movie is - Baap numberi to beta dus numberi

    Comment


    • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

      Originally posted by compuwalah View Post
      Thx for the article SS. This is my reading of it :-P


      >> That is why gold, silver and other hard assets are going to be so
      >> good to have in the long-term. In the short-term they will experience
      >> wild swings in price, but if you can handle the ride you will be
      >> smiling in the end


      Hard asset include RE as well. So going by this article that means even if you buy RE at current prices, you will be smiling in the end ("if you believe this article"). That has tuned out otbe true so far as people bought in 2009 are laughing, 2008+2010 are smiling and 2011 are content even in present state (leave aside people bought in 2004 to 2006 they are , leave them alone). All RE holders have more to be happy about in coming future as per this article. Same thing has been said so many time all in all a RE holder will be happy in long term , there may be some rough riding for now . Anyway large people do follow this rule as apprant from many brave buyers posting this (and getting bashed as well) on IREF.

      Now question is how various people will pass time during recession (that this article is predicting).

      People sitting on paper gold keep praying no decree is issued during recession , people with physical gold please do not leave your house for vacation (unless you have pop like SS) or pray some big player(s) does not dumps 100 tonnes of it in single day, people with land keep making visit to prop every fortnight for encroachment check or some highway coming up, people with RE go trotting the globe on next recession, your house is far less likely to be carried away by someone in your abscence.
      Compu,

      I think I need to change my writing style ... everyone keeps missing the point I want to make

      As I have said before, timing is very important if an investor [ not referring only to RE investors ] has to make money / grow wealth. Buy and hold is not such a bright strategy in times of financial instability.

      As you may remember, I gave this deflation call almost a year back on the stock advice thread. At that time, gold was the darling of investors and RE was stable. No big surprise then, that I was thought to be unstable and fit for entry into a mental asylum as was the case in 2011, when I urged all those willing to listen with an open mind, to get out of stocks and into gold at 21000 / 22000.

      With utmost respect to everyone here, IREF is sort of a contrarian indicator for me. When I post an intermediate term strategy and it gets attacked by many, I just smile because then I know that my strategy will make me money !!

      Anyway, the point is that now the sentiment has turned and even the RE perma-bulls are reluctantly accepting that a global recession is indeed underway. So how to profit from it ? This is not going to be a quickie, however. RE corrections take years to reach bottoms. I would say that this is the best time frame to build cash reserves. Cash, cash, cash should be your mantra.

      Nothing new there, the vital thing is the timing. That time has arrived. The first phase of a bear market is illiquidity -- we're seeing it now. Then begins the downward adjustment of prices as weak hands begin to bail out. Patience is the only tool you have to use in the RE game.

      I'm not saying that prices will fall proportionately everywhere. Most people fail to make a distinction between ordinary RE and prime, productive RE [ such as centre of the city with everything within walking distance ] The former falls hard [ we saw it during the last big correction in India too ] while the latter may see only a 10% to 20% correction.

      Having made good money from the various asset bubbles so far, I can now laze around waiting for the recession to hit its peak and asset prices to hit their bottoms. I can go trekking, to a pub, to the Costa Del Sol .... and all the while my FDs keep working for me, ticking up the interest. Life is good

      BTW, the best bargains were made in 2004 / 2005 --- and not 2008 / 2009 [ prices had already doubled by that time ]

      Another thing, in the linked article, the writer feels that we will have hyperinflation going ahead. Is it a given ? No. Its just conjecture. I don't like to base investment decisions on conjecture. What is fact ? What is reality ?
      That we are in the midst of a grand deflationary supercycle. That is the reality. The deflationary forces are so strong that they are nullifying the co-ordinated efforts of central banks around the world. That is the fact. The CBs are out of ammo, but the deflationary supercycle is not. Ergo, a recession / depression is guaranteed.

      If you want to pick up assets on the cheap in the future, build on your cash reserves NOW. I've done it before -- buy dirt cheap, sell high, move to cash. One cycle completed. Rinse, repeat

      Don't be a perma-bull or perma-bear. Crouch like a tiger, waiting for the right moment. Be a rank opportunist and go for the kill.
      Last edited by SanjanaSingh; May 26 2013, 04:45 PM.

      Comment


      • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

        Originally posted by SanjanaSingh View Post
        Compu,

        If you want to pick up assets on the cheap in the future, build on your cash reserves NOW. I've done it before -- buy dirt cheap, sell high, move to cash. One cycle completed. Rinse, repeat

        Don't be a perma-bull or perma-bear. Crouch like a tiger, waiting for the right moment. Be a rank opportunist and go for the kill.
        This is very easy to say but very difficult to practice. You might do it successfully once but repeating it all over again may not be possible.

        If you are doing this ...well, good for you

        Comment


        • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

          Originally posted by Venkytalks View Post
          So people will go to Navi Mumbai, Gurgaon, NOIDA and the like.

          India needs 10 new cities like Delhi Mumbai to absorb the shift of rural population.

          Govt failure (in road and city building) means chaotic urbanization and shooting suburban real estate prices = high prices for poor quality real estate
          New cities required : Yes,
          Govt has failed on infra front : Yes,
          But will better infra in suburb reduce RE prices from builder side : No.
          Infact, look at the land rates of NC, Amanora, BR etc. it is at throw away prices, yet prices are high. Better infra in suburb, more FSI blah, blah will reduce prices is just builder gimmicks to gain more profit. Look at what Hiranandani did at Powai, which was meant for MIG-LIG population.

          Unless buyers stop buying, even if land, material, labor is given free of cost, builders will see how much they can squeeze. End user is the king, if s/he stay out, prices will fall, no matter which part or location it is at.

          Man, if better infra, good governance would have been the only criteria, RE prices in US would have never fallen.
          If you are happy, you are successful.

          Comment


          • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

            Rise in bank NPAs

            Originally posted by mangoman2012 View Post
            QE (Quantitative Easing) by US federal government is going to stop.

            The very thought is giving shivers to Indian finance minister Mr.P.Chidambaram. With a mere 1-2% fall in Indian markets Mr.Chidambaram is coming on TV and almost begging to foreign investors to stay invested.
            He very well know that money has no heart. Whether you like it or not we are staring at a huge crash.
            +1. Add to it the fact, that India has again been rated just above 'Junk' status, which has made investment in India even more less lucrative. Policy paralysis is taking a toll on it & when someone points it out, like current CII Prez & former Infy chief & gives praises on Narendra Modi, Infy gets slapped with IT notice of INR 500 Cr. This Govt wants to cling on to power at any costs & if you see all RE boom took place when Congress was in power & had lot of scams in it. It is this very money they make from scams which goes into RE. As their investments from ill gotten wealth are giving negative returns now, they too are now scared.

            The people who talk about and worry about 5% GDP will see the contraction of our GDP within couple of years. Congress has to pay for its sins. Knowing the consequences now Indian Finance minister is working overtime to save the share markets. His single point agenda is to save the share market and nothing else.
            Feel good factor is already dead. Ratan Tata has already said that he has informed to Cyrus Mistry that they should now look outside India for better markets & see to it that in next 5-6 years, more than 75% of revenues of Tata group come from outside. Some European countries have given open offer to Tata Sons with lot of lucrative offers if Tata decides to shift their HO from Mumbai & get the company registered in EU. Doesn't this show us in bad light, when one can dare to ask over 100 yr old company to shift its base outside India ?

            Already markets are artificially jacked up by FII money which comes into India by spill over effect from Europe, Japan and US QE. If US decides to stop and the bond yields increase in US, then the money which flowed into India will go back to US in no time.This will cause a huge crash in Indian share markets.
            With gold being sold in large scale & US Fed informing that they won't be printing money as they did in 2009 now, people are again putting their money back in US$. I spoke with our company executive who looks after ECB (external commercial borrowing) section & he said it will be become more difficult for Indian cos to raise money via ECB route than earlier due to deteriorating situation here.

            Real Estate is un-affordable for end user
            Drinking water scarcity increasing
            Job opportunities are dwindling
            Banks are making losses
            Farmers are struggling
            Power generation , the less said it is better
            +1000000

            But dont forget. This country is going to pay for its sins.
            +1.

            And you said about banks above, here are couple of news from banking industry :-

            HSBC Signals 14,000 Job Cuts in $3 Billion Savings Plan :-

            HSBC Signals 14,000 Job Cuts in $3 Billion Savings Plan - Bloomberg


            Net NPA rises 51% for 39 listed banks in FY 2012-13 over previous year :-

            MUMBAI: Slowdown in the economy and higher cost of funds has resulted in listed commercial banks showing a 51% rise in bad loans in the fiscal year 2012-13 over the previous year. A study by npasources.com shows that bad loans after making provisions or net NPA rose 51% to Rs 92825 crore for the fiscal year end March 2013 for 39 listed bank.

            Net NPA rises 51% for 39 listed banks in FY 2012-13 over previous year - Economic Times


            ^^ Now despite all such news, rising NPAs, high inflation, poor gdp growth etc., if one still wants to believe RE growth story, well, then even god can't save them.
            If you are happy, you are successful.

            Comment


            • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

              Originally posted by SanjanaSingh View Post
              Compu,

              I think I need to change my writing style ... everyone keeps missing the point I want to make
              .
              My comments were on the 2nd article link in your post. The quoted text is from the website.

              Originally posted by SanjanaSingh View Post
              As I have said before, timing is very important if an investor [ not referring only to RE investors ] has to make money / grow wealth. Buy and hold is not such a bright strategy in times of financial instability.

              As you may remember, I gave this deflation call almost a year back on the stock advice thread. At that time, gold was the darling of investors and RE was stable. No big surprise then, that I was thought to be unstable and fit for entry into a mental asylum as was the case in 2011, .
              Apologies but you call on gold was that it was going to hit 2600 soon (you were not the only one but many other people had same view). In reality the gold price was stagnant for long when the gammas were touching zero you were missing from the forum for long time.

              Comment


              • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                Originally posted by compuwalah View Post
                Apologies but you call on gold was that it was going to hit 2600 soon (you were not the only one but many other people had same view). In reality the gold price was stagnant for long when the gammas were touching zero you were missing from the forum for long time.
                Compu,

                Atleast do some research before making false accusations. This forecast was made on 6/8/2012, in reply to one of Wiseman's posts :

                [ Refer post : http://www.indianrealestateforum.com...-post4471.html ]

                Wiseman,

                I'm not disputing that gold will continue its bull run .... Eventually.

                But first, all hope needs to be crushed for a renewed interest to emerge.

                When gold and silver pierce their last year's lows, then the smart money will come back.

                I guess gold between $ 1200 - 1300 and silver between $ 19 - 22 are great opportunities.

                There, I've stuck my neck out !


                To eliminate your doubts [ and false accusations ], here's more proof

                http://www.indianrealestateforum.com...-post4450.html

                http://www.indianrealestateforum.com...-post4452.html

                http://www.indianrealestateforum.com...-post4471.html

                http://www.indianrealestateforum.com...-post4487.html

                http://www.indianrealestateforum.com...-post4618.html

                http://www.indianrealestateforum.com...-post4359.html

                http://www.indianrealestateforum.com...-post4384.html

                And the following is an excerpt from your own post in the discussion :

                Sanjana camp believe in remaining agile and move the asset between cash / PMs / RE as the situation is. As of now PM look unattractive, cash looks better and one should look at oppurtunity to park it in RE. There is no notion of this big end of the world crisis.

                [ Refer post : http://www.indianrealestateforum.com...-post4387.html ]

                Do you forget so easily what you yourself have said in the past ?

                More proof :

                http://www.indianrealestateforum.com...-post4389.html

                I specifically cautioned against buying PMs in reply to a query :

                If you have a core position in gold, approx atleast 10% of portfolio, dont buy at these rates.

                If you dont have any gold, buy small amounts at regular intervals. Preferably on the large dips, say 5 gms at a time. Channel part of your savings.

                Cannot advise taking a big risk and going all in at this point of time.

                [ Refer post : http://www.indianrealestateforum.com...-post4390.html ]

                Need still more proof, Compu ? Here you go :

                http://www.indianrealestateforum.com...-post4399.html

                http://www.indianrealestateforum.com...-post4330.html

                http://www.indianrealestateforum.com...-post5709.html

                There is also a post wherein I specifically said that I was selling half my gold holdings at INR 30,000/- , but I cannot find it right now. The post is somewhere on this very thread. After all the trouble you have put me through just to prove your false accusations as --- well, false -- perhaps you should take the time and efforts to find that post ?

                I went away from the forum AFTER putting out my forecasts on gold and the coming recession [ we're already in it now, btw ] and came back after I was proved right.

                Next time, I hope, you will be more careful before making any accusations [ this is not the first time you have done so, but this is the first time I was determined to expose your trolling ] -- it reflects badly on your credibility, not mine.

                Comment


                • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                  Apologies you had to take so much effort for this. But somehow I am not able to find the thread. I remember distictly your call of 2600 on gold.

                  Its only later part you have turned bearish. Let me know you deny the fact that you were super bullish on gold one time.

                  Comment


                  • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                    [QUOTE=compuwalah;857589]
                    Apologies you had to take so much effort for this. But somehow I am not able to find the thread. I remember distictly your call of 2600 on gold.
                    Prove it.

                    Its only later part you have turned bearish. Let me know you deny the fact that you were super bullish on gold one time.
                    This is the last time I'm saying it, Compu. Unlike you, I'm neither a perma-bull nor a perma-bear. I position my money as the situation changes. Upto a certain point I was bullish on gold. I benefited from that. After a certain point I became bearish on gold. I benefited from that too. At some point in the future I may again become bullish on gold. Again I will benefit.

                    BTW, what do you think of the forecast of $ 1200 - 1300 gold & $ 19 - 22 silver given on 6/8/2012 ?

                    I thought you would have the decency to accept your mistake in the face of the proof provided. Yet you continue with your baseless mudslinging.

                    Comment


                    • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                      Originally posted by suryawork View Post
                      Very true

                      After spending most of savings,parents savings,present and commiting future income to buying expensive RE plus providing for taxes and maintenance , wonder where will happy RE guys find funds to go globe trotting on vacation...maybe a home equity or personal loan to enjoy ???
                      If Indians start availing home equity loans then we are in serious trouble. India dosent have proper bankruptcy laws so the ability for an individual or a company to file for bankruptcy and start all over again dosent exist.

                      Some private banks do send adverts on availing home equity loans to senior citizens. Will be interesting to see if people really go for such loans.

                      Comment

                      Tags: None
                      Have any questions or thoughts about this?
                      Working...
                      X