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Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

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Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

Last updated: November 1 2016
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  • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

    Originally posted by SanjanaSingh View Post
    Why & when I changed my stance on gold is documented in detail on the stock advice thread.
    .
    .
    .

    So first you make false accusations, then pick older posts to support those accusations, while conveniently ignoring the ones after them that explain the reasons for the change in stance, alert readers of a major gold correction and even give targets of what to expect.


    You've changed your tone from the previous post which was :

    Originally posted by SanjanaSingh View Post
    Which 'same poster' ?

    Certainly not me, because this is what I'm on record for:


    http://www.indianrealestateforum.com...-post4471.html

    http://www.indianrealestateforum.com...-post5935.html

    Of course, false accusations are the easiest method of attempting to discredit a person.
    From 'certainly not me' to 'Yes, I said it, but because of the following 150 reasons I changed my stance'

    So you do agree, when confronted with proof that you predicted Gold at $4000 and an extended bull run on gold till 2017. Good enough for me.

    Comment


    • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

      Originally posted by badanalyst View Post
      You've changed your tone from the previous post which was :



      From 'certainly not me' to 'Yes, I said it, but because of the following 150 reasons I changed my stance'

      So you do agree, when confronted with proof that you predicted Gold at $4000 and an extended bull run on gold till 2017. Good enough for me.
      What's good enough for you is taking others' posts out of context and using them to support your accusations.

      You did not even have the decency of linking ALL my posts in that period -- before and after the change in stance on gold -- and discuss the reasons for the direction change.

      Perhaps you do not know that cycles change, analogs change, price action changes -- and investors change their positions accordingly; not impose their will upon the markets. If you don't know that, you are indeed a bad analyst

      If you had the decency & sense of fair play, you would have linked all those posts where intermediate trends were accurately predicted.

      You could have acknowledged that many were cautioned against investing in gold at the brink of a fall.

      But that would not suit your agenda. So you straightway resort to accusations and half-truths.

      That's good enough for me -- to know what interests you represent.

      Comment


      • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

        Originally posted by SanjanaSingh View Post
        What's good enough for you is taking others' posts out of context and using them to support your accusations.

        You did not even have the decency of linking ALL my posts in that period -- before and after the change in stance on gold -- and discuss the reasons for the direction change.

        Perhaps you do not know that cycles change, analogs change, price action changes -- and investors change their positions accordingly; not impose their will upon the markets. If you don't know that, you are indeed a bad analyst

        If you had the decency & sense of fair play, you would have linked all those posts where intermediate trends were accurately predicted.

        You could have acknowledged that many were cautioned against investing in gold at the brink of a fall.

        But that would not suit your agenda. So you straightway resort to accusations and half-truths.

        That's good enough for me -- to know what interests you represent.
        The bottom lineof this argument is :

        1. Poster implies "I never said Gold will touch $4000". Show me the proof dammit !
        2. I show proof of posts that show poster claiming unending bull run in Gold till 2017 along with it touching $4000
        3. Poster explodes out of control saying I said it but with caveats

        So similarly, all such extreme views by concerned poster is not to be taken too seriously. If there is an extreme claim of RE falling by 60% in the next 3 years, please note that after 3 years if this does not happen, we are to assume that
        a) Poster says 'I made any such outrageous claims, what nonsense !'
        b) Poster said later, 'Situation changed, and this is why I made 1400 other posts saying 1400 different things'

        So keeping with this theme, here are my three predictions for RE :

        1. RE prices will fall
        OR
        2. RE prices will rise
        OR
        3. RE prices will stay the same

        One of these three will definitely happen ! Quote me on this 5 years down the line and I'll show what an expert I am in investing !

        Comment


        • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

          Precisely why this class of profession is useless (rather detrimental) to the world economy!

          Is it 2017 already? Then why write off a prediction however reasonable or ludicrous it may sound?

          Remember Gold has fallen due to govt. intervention. But it has pared of most of the loss inspite of govt. pressure.

          And gold will only rise till people are forced on the roads due to heavy debt thus selling their gold before they sell any RE (especially the end users of RE). This has already happened recently to a lower extent. If common sense prevails, the "only investors" will sell of their RE before selling gold.

          However knowing the high IQ (Idiocy Quotient) of Indians, most will Que up at the jewellers or Muthoot as soon as the RE shit hits the fan still holding onto the RE shit dearly while selling their gold.

          BTW, changing stance based on everyday events (from your dog sneezing to farting) is anyways an analysts modus operandi, aint it?

          Surprizing that birds of a feather dont f**ck together.




          Originally posted by badanalyst View Post
          The bottom lineof this argument is :

          1. Poster implies "I never said Gold will touch $4000". Show me the proof dammit !
          2. I show proof of posts that show poster claiming unending bull run in Gold till 2017 along with it touching $4000
          3. Poster explodes out of control saying I said it but with caveats

          So similarly, all such extreme views by concerned poster is not to be taken too seriously. If there is an extreme claim of RE falling by 60% in the next 3 years, please note that after 3 years if this does not happen, we are to assume that
          a) Poster says 'I made any such outrageous claims, what nonsense !'
          b) Poster said later, 'Situation changed, and this is why I made 1400 other posts saying 1400 different things'

          So keeping with this theme, here are my three predictions for RE :

          1. RE prices will fall
          OR
          2. RE prices will rise
          OR
          3. RE prices will stay the same

          One of these three will definitely happen ! Quote me on this 5 years down the line and I'll show what an expert I am in investing !

          Comment


          • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

            Originally posted by SanjanaSingh View Post
            What's good enough for you is taking others' posts out of context and using them to support your accusations.

            You did not even have the decency of linking ALL my posts in that period -- before and after the change in stance on gold -- and discuss the reasons for the direction change.

            Perhaps you do not know that cycles change, analogs change, price action changes -- and investors change their positions accordingly; not impose their will upon the markets. If you don't know that, you are indeed a bad analyst

            If you had the decency & sense of fair play, you would have linked all those posts where intermediate trends were accurately predicted.

            You could have acknowledged that many were cautioned against investing in gold at the brink of a fall.

            But that would not suit your agenda. So you straightway resort to accusations and half-truths.

            That's good enough for me -- to know what interests you represent.
            Sanjana,

            will: It is going to be

            should: It is expected / probable that

            could/might/may : It is possible that

            must: The only possible conclusion is that

            Please use as appropriate

            Regards
            Last edited by RP Pune; June 21 2013, 07:24 PM.

            Comment


            • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

              Originally posted by badanalyst View Post
              The bottom lineof this argument is :

              1. Poster implies "I never said Gold will touch $4000". Show me the proof dammit !
              2. I show proof of posts that show poster claiming unending bull run in Gold till 2017 along with it touching $4000
              3. Poster explodes out of control saying I said it but with caveats

              So similarly, all such extreme views by concerned poster is not to be taken too seriously. If there is an extreme claim of RE falling by 60% in the next 3 years, please note that after 3 years if this does not happen, we are to assume that
              a) Poster says 'I made any such outrageous claims, what nonsense !'
              b) Poster said later, 'Situation changed, and this is why I made 1400 other posts saying 1400 different things'

              So keeping with this theme, here are my three predictions for RE :

              1. RE prices will fall
              OR
              2. RE prices will rise
              OR
              3. RE prices will stay the same

              One of these three will definitely happen ! Quote me on this 5 years down the line and I'll show what an expert I am in investing !
              its like watching a soap opera ... take it easy!

              nothing mentioned here is carved in stone. people keep their eyes open and change the stance. this is called improvising.

              At least we are seeing some professional behavior of accepting the changed facts and publicly announcing the revised view. Most of the traders would do the same...

              Comment


              • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                Home prices in India highly inflated: HDFC chief

                For a change ...

                Home prices in India highly inflated: HDFC chief


                Home prices in India are highly inflated, according to Deepak Parekh, chairman of the country’s largest housing finance company, HDFC.

                "At the cost of perhaps now sounding like a broken record, I continue to hold the stance that increasing supply is the only way home prices can come down in India. Even in tier-II and tier-III cities, home prices are inflated," Parekh said.

                Parekh urged home buyers to be cautious of 'too-good-to-be-true' offers from the property developers and warned them against schemes where builders claim of paying interest on the borrowers' loans.

                Parekh also asked financing companies to stay away from innovative and aggressive loans, including teaser rates where the interest rates rise gradually and lending money to developers at the same rate as being offered on individual home loans.

                Parekh, however, lauded the role of a new breed of entrepreneurs and first-time developers who have ventured into the affordable housing space.

                "Such projects may be few and far between, but the trend is encouraging because this is where the real demand lies. Hopefully, the more established and larger developers will take a cue and focus on the affordable housing segment, rather than high-end luxury homes that they currently cater to," he said.

                Home prices in India highly inflated: HDFC chief - Hindustan Times

                Comment


                • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                  Originally posted by badanalyst View Post
                  The bottom lineof this argument is :

                  1. Poster implies "I never said Gold will touch $4000". Show me the proof dammit !
                  2. I show proof of posts that show poster claiming unending bull run in Gold till 2017 along with it touching $4000
                  3. Poster explodes out of control saying I said it but with caveats

                  So similarly, all such extreme views by concerned poster is not to be taken too seriously. If there is an extreme claim of RE falling by 60% in the next 3 years, please note that after 3 years if this does not happen, we are to assume that
                  a) Poster says 'I made any such outrageous claims, what nonsense !'
                  b) Poster said later, 'Situation changed, and this is why I made 1400 other posts saying 1400 different things'

                  So keeping with this theme, here are my three predictions for RE :

                  1. RE prices will fall
                  OR
                  2. RE prices will rise
                  OR
                  3. RE prices will stay the same

                  One of these three will definitely happen ! Quote me on this 5 years down the line and I'll show what an expert I am in investing !
                  Since you admit to being a bad analyst, you wouldnt know this but there is such a thing as short-term bearishness within long-term bullishness.

                  I'm still long-term bullish on gold. But the price action around May / June 2012 clearly indicated weakness and a big correction in the future.

                  So I sold half my gold holdings at 30,000/- [ mentioned during that time in one post ], which was a very good price.

                  In fact, I'm going to flip again from short to long when gold gets to my target of INR equivalent of $ 1200 [ not far away ]

                  So :

                  Initial investment in gold at INR 20,000

                  Average reduced to 17000

                  Sold at 30000 at intermediate top.

                  Will buy back again at my target price mentioned above. In the meanwhile, the corpus earns interest in FDs.

                  Its called generating turbo-charged profits while concentrating on a single asset class.

                  This correction has extended the time-target for the final leg up, but the price target remains the same.

                  Its not difficult to understand -- perhaps that is why you did not initiate a healthy discussion on it. You wanted to make it out as if changing short-term stance on an asset class is some kind of crime, so that your agenda of discrediting me is served.

                  Does not work, buddy. People are smarter than to fall for such silly tricks.

                  Comment


                  • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                    I'm seeing a change in the attitude of the so-called RE bulls [ who really appear to be stuck investors, builder mouthpieces, bookies & dallas ] Everytime someone posts some info, link or forecast regarding current stagnancy in RE or estimates of future price declines, he / she is being viciously attacked by many RE bulls in tandem [ and their cronies giving likes to each other ]

                    Personal attacks, purposefully misunderstanding & twisting statements, snide comments, attempts to discredit by any method ---

                    All this reeks of desperation. These mouthpieces clearly see that the RE market is grinding downwards, deals are not happening, inventory is building up, and India is falling into recession along with the rest of the world. So they are venting their frustrations here.

                    Excellent. Because RE bulls [ collective term for the above mentioned categories ] are going to get much, much more frustrated as time passes.

                    Atleast RE brokers now have a way to pass the time instead of sitting in the office and swatting flies --- spread disinformation on RE forums all day while their former masters, the builders are busy running around begging for cash

                    Comment


                    • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                      And just for the record, I've been negative on Indian RE since 2011. The bear market has already started with the severe stagnancy that we're seeing now. RE is a game of patience. Prices do not move as fast as assets that can be traded online.

                      Indian RE is so overvalued by any metric, that if realtime price discovery was facilitated, [ like stocks, bonds, commodities ] big money would have shorted the hell out of it. We certainly would have. And then the RE bulls would know the real worth of these over-hyped pigeon-holes.

                      Comment

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