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Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

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Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

Last updated: November 1 2016
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  • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

    @paap - "The other way is also true right? Just cause banks are doing badly does not mean RE is going to do bad"
    Actually yes. Credit more than anything else drives RE prices. So if banks are doing badly, then credit will be curtailed. Thats why its called a "credit crunch". Black money in RE is a small fraction compared to banking credit and its largely a myth that black money will somehow hold up RE in India.

    As for - "Only 2 builders have defaulted that too in mumbai. "
    This is due to the kindness of our bankers who keep rolling over loans.

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    • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

      Originally posted by southsea View Post
      @paap - "The other way is also true right? Just cause banks are doing badly does not mean RE is going to do bad"
      Actually yes. Credit more than anything else drives RE prices. So if banks are doing badly, then credit will be curtailed. Thats why its called a "credit crunch". Black money in RE is a small fraction compared to banking credit and its largely a myth that black money will somehow hold up RE in India.
      I was just trying to highlight the inconsistency in logic. Obviously bank NPAs affect the economy but at the same time the govt injecting crores of cash in banks allows the banks to continue to lend.

      Similarly IBM cutting jobs affects people but at the same time other companies hiring emp negates the effect.

      As for - "Only 2 builders have defaulted that too in mumbai. "
      This is due to the kindness of our bankers who keep rolling over loans.
      So what does that say about the RE market? Someone posted a link of UBI and its NPAs and real estate loan defaults were the smallest. So is the problem of builders defaulting really that serious or as usual -ve news is being hyped up on this thread?
      Last edited by paaaap; February 25 2014, 10:44 AM.

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      • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

        Originally posted by paaaap View Post
        Realacres, you of all people should not talk about predicting real estate prices and analysis of the real estate market.

        You have been proved consistently wrong for the last 5 years and you still continue to harp on the bubble bursting and use all kinds of new articles to make your point.

        Atleast I accept that I cant predict where the RE market is going to and put out articles that just balance out your -ve posts.
        [/B]
        why are you doing this social service? what have us mere mortals done to deserve your pearls of wisdom?

        I may not agree 100% with realacres, but he comes across as a mature, intelligent and well-read person. In your case, I am not sure how many people can vouch for your maturity or your apparent intelligence.
        ...Thoda Aasman

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        • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

          The End game of speculation in Indian Real Estate has begun

          http://alphaideas.in/wp-content/uplo...state-2013.pdf

          Great analysis on the indian real estate market based on hard numbers!!
          ...Thoda Aasman

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          • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

            Renting vs. Buying a home - Salman Khan

            Renting vs. Buying a home - YouTube

            Another great resource. I was created an Excel Sheet to create what-if scenarios if I went ahead with buying an apartment at the current rates or renting and saving that money. I started with a basic version and googled to find any additional parameters. This video really helped me in nailing down all the parameters.

            I would request people to create their own rent vs. buy excels to understand the true consequences of their actions.
            ...Thoda Aasman

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            • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

              Originally posted by ThodiSiZamin View Post
              why are you doing this social service? what have us mere mortals done to deserve your pearls of wisdom?

              I may not agree 100% with realacres, but he comes across as a mature, intelligent and well-read person. In your case, I am not sure how many people can vouch for your maturity or your apparent intelligence.
              Pls keep ur gyan to yourself. Posting a few +ve posts has upset u so much that u seem to have forgotten the basic method of discussing a point. If being intelligent is being wrong for 5 yrs and still harping the same old tunes then there are many intelligent folks here.

              Get over yourself. This thread is more than ur opinions about others.

              Comment


              • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                Private equity inflow in realty sector up 13 per cent to Rs 7000 crore



                Private equity inflow in realty sector up 13 per cent to Rs 7000 crore: Report - The Economic Times

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                • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                  @paap - 'If being intelligent is being wrong for 5 yrs and still harping the same old tunes then there are many intelligent folks here."
                  In all fairness to realacres, being prescient is different from being powerful. One can with reasonable probability say whether the market is overvalued and that some sort of a correction is likely. But one cannot predict the timing and certainly no one can cause it by simply saying so.

                  As the (cliched) saying goes - 'Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent'.

                  Comment


                  • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                    Originally posted by southsea View Post
                    @paap - 'If being intelligent is being wrong for 5 yrs and still harping the same old tunes then there are many intelligent folks here."
                    In all fairness to realacres, being prescient is different from being powerful. One can with reasonable probability say whether the market is overvalued and that some sort of a correction is likely. But one cannot predict the timing and certainly no one can cause it by simply saying so.

                    As the (cliched) saying goes - 'Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent'.
                    The zerohedge website has an apt tag line
                    "On a long enough timescale the survival rate for everyone drops to zero"


                    Warren Buffet put out an article today in the Fortune website - Buffett's annual letter: Learn from my real estate investments - The Term Sheet: Fortune's deals blogTerm Sheet

                    Now we can all buy/invest in a house and not worry about its daily/monthly price if the house is our primary residency or if the return from that house is decent - rents are sufficient.

                    Real estate today does not meet the 2nd criteria and still people continue to buy houses or supply is down and buyers are chasing fewer houses or there is some other reason for the prices to be high.

                    Comment


                    • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                      Negates??????????????

                      Originally posted by paaaap View Post

                      Similarly IBM cutting jobs affects people but at the same time other companies hiring emp negates the effect.

                      Ohh god... Did I read it right? 'NEGATES'? So IBM engineers who are loosing jobs in Bangalore/World-wide - their pains OR whatever they are feeling is NEGATED by some fresher chap / anyone else getting job in some different company? Come-on man... You keep on iterating that you have 6 years experience in IT. Please understand that loosing a job has bigger consequences. No one can negate that.

                      Have you ever posted a job requirement on some site? I mean, have you ever shortlisted candidates for interview? I have been doing that since last 4 years now. For 2-3 openings, we get atleast 100 CVs. That is the bitter truth which mid-freshers (2-3 year exp) and mid-exp guys cant see.


                      You were telling about conginizant sometime back. Do you know its review in international market? Every weekend, there is a hiring drive in Bagmane Tech Park, Bangalore, for cognizant. As I stay very near, I could easily see atleast 500 people in line. Almost every weekend in last 2 years. Now please dont say that its a good sign, lets buy RE. That is a BAD sign that so many people for so less openings.

                      Suppose, god forbid, you loose your job after 3-4 years because of company closure, doomed business etc and at the same time a fresher/mid-fresher gets a job in some remote company (which is not at all close to what you were working on) - how does it negate the effect for-
                      1. You - who have lost the job
                      2. RE where YOU have done the investment
                      3. Bank who has given you loan
                      4. Pain in getting another job
                      6. Painful EMIs
                      7. Socio-economic problems which you may face (check the YT post I shared)

                      Let me tell you one personal example.

                      An IBMer who was there for 9 years, lost job in this tide this month. Meanwhile, an intelligent BCom guy from some village in satara, got job as tester in some body-shopping testing company 2L p/a as QA EXECUTIVE ENGINEER with 0 EXPERIENCE

                      Does it Negate? It only makes fool of our rural-semi-urban kids, students that they are engineers.

                      I am not trying to give you gyan. But please, dont be ASSURED that IT is here to STAY for YOU. No doubt, IT will stay in INDIA but only for CHEAP LABOR. Once anyone is over-priced, they start counting there days.

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