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Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

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Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

Last updated: November 1 2016
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  • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

    Originally posted by realacres View Post
    Herohiralal,

    When I was talking about RIL, what I merely wanted to show is there is a difference between operations & sources of revenue. That's all.
    I have seen the debt figs & those are even bad if you see cos like ADAG & GMR.
    In news above, I was not talking about health of company but sources of income.
    Then cash flow is the correct measure. A company can use various tactics to show profit but the cash flow statement will show how the company is really performing.

    Comment


    • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

      Originally posted by realacres View Post
      I

      GDP sub 5%,
      CPI in double digits, which means negative growth,
      GDP is the real GDP which does not include inflation. If you GDP which takes into consideration then look for nominal GDP.

      Here is the Indian GDP graph
      Attached Files

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      • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

        Originally posted by herohiralal View Post
        Check the crime and school rating of that area and u see a vast difference.

        Edison NJ Real Estate - 509 Homes For Sale - Zillow

        Crime data

        Edison NJ crime rates and statistics - NeighborhoodScout

        School rating

        Edison Township Public Schools in Edison, NJ | GreatSchools


        Where u see cheap houses are usually areas that have high crime and poor schools.

        So compare them with areas of the city which have similar setup in India.
        Edison does NOT have high crime rates and has a decent schooling district. Edison is safer than Wakad and Hinjewadi for sure. At least in NJ you do not hear of 11 apartments being robbed in the same day in broad daylight. or you do not hear stories of biker snatching gold chains or staging accidents to loot victims who come to their rescue.

        Much of the crime in India is not even reported. In addition to it India doesn't have crime tracking websites. Either you havent lived long enough in the US or are just hyping up stuff. At least in the US you can track such stuff. Tell me, where can I get a list of all the crimes in Wakad and Hinjewadi??? when the builders themselves who have built on illegally obtained land are roaming scott-free, that itself says a lot about the law and order of that country. if god forbid, tomorrow one of your family members comes under the Scorpio of the local politician, do you really think you are going to get justice? A lot of crime in india is not even reported for various reasons!!!

        And lastly, a lot of schools have cropped up in Pune calling themselves international schools, but in reality are third class schools.

        Saying houses in a particular area are cheap just because of high crime and poor schooling districts may apply to cities, but does not apply in this case to a largely suburban community.

        the fact of the matter is that builders in India are selling shitty houses at exorbitant prices without providing any basic infrastructure. you dont have to worry about load-shedding or drinking water cuts in the US. can you say that about Pune?
        ...Thoda Aasman

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        • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

          Why are comparing ourselves with USA?

          Comment


          • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

            Originally posted by ThodiSiZamin View Post
            the fact of the matter is that builders in India are selling shitty houses at exorbitant prices without providing any basic infrastructure. you dont have to worry about load-shedding or drinking water cuts in the US. can you say that about Pune?

            Let me answer ur last para first. U dont need to convince me that US is better than India. I am sold on that thing There is no doubt that u get crap RE for very high prices in India. And not just RE but many other things in India are sold at a very high price relative to value.


            The issue is that a very small of portion of Indians have the option of buying a house in the USA. Majority have to buy a house in India and the comparison between US and Indian RE is mute for them.

            Edison does NOT have high crime rates and has a decent schooling district. Edison is safer than Wakad and Hinjewadi for sure. At least in NJ you do not hear of 11 apartments being robbed in the same day in broad daylight. or you do not hear stories of biker snatching gold chains or staging accidents to loot victims who come to their rescue.

            Much of the crime in India is not even reported. In addition to it India doesn't have crime tracking websites. Either you havent lived long enough in the US or are just hyping up stuff. At least in the US you can track such stuff. Tell me, where can I get a list of all the crimes in Wakad and Hinjewadi??? when the builders themselves who have built on illegally obtained land are roaming scott-free, that itself says a lot about the law and order of that country. if god forbid, tomorrow one of your family members comes under the Scorpio of the local politician, do you really think you are going to get justice? A lot of crime in india is not even reported for various reasons!!!

            And lastly, a lot of schools have cropped up in Pune calling themselves international schools, but in reality are third class schools.

            Saying houses in a particular area are cheap just because of high crime and poor schooling districts may apply to cities, but does not apply in this case to a largely suburban community.

            Just go to zillow and search for houses in Edison based on yr of construction. You will see that majority of the houses were built in 1950s and 1960s. You will also see a stark difference in the prices that are there in North Edison and South Edison. Now I can do more research on why there is a big difference between these 2 areas - FEMA flood maps, transportation links, history etc etc.

            Also check out houses in Boston MA, Stamford CT, San Jose, CA etc and then compare prices in Alpharetta, GA, Houston TX, Dallas, TX and Denver CO. Check the difference.

            Here is a cost of living check for US cities. Cost of Living Calculator: Compare the Cost of Living in Two Cities - CNNMoney It provides a good comparison between cities across key parameters.

            Comment


            • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

              Originally posted by ThodiSiZamin View Post

              And lastly, a lot of schools have cropped up in Pune calling themselves international schools, but in reality are third class schools.
              No doubt. But compared to what? If you compare them to govt schools then they are very good. Like RE everyone is making a quick buck. Check out the number of nurseries and other services that have propped up. Demand is quite good for them.

              Comment


              • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                A good slide deck on international student in USA and a few slide on international students in other key countries

                http://www.iie.org/~/media/Files/Cor...mber-2013.ashx

                Comment


                • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                  Originally posted by herohiralal View Post
                  Let me answer ur last para first. U dont need to convince me that US is better than India. I am sold on that thing .
                  Exactly.

                  Why do people compare with US so much. Nobody's stopping them from living there. If they don't have an option then why constant comparison and demean. Everybody knows there are still basic issues in India.

                  Comment


                  • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                    Originally posted by RP Pune View Post
                    Why do people compare with US so much.
                    For the simple reason that builders in Pune quote first class rates for third class projects & infra. Simple.
                    And why US, just see the prices vis a vis Bangalore & Hyderabad. These cities have better infra than Pune with better prices.

                    And please don't hype that Telangana stuff. Everything is normal there & don't know how it makes H'bad bad than Pune.

                    Btw, couple of weeks back, in TOI I read interview of Pune builder where they said Pune will become next metro & its infra is better than Delhi. Has this builder been to Delhi even once ? If I am correct, the news was about Punawale as new RE destination & builder was that of Puneville.
                    Last edited by realacres; April 22 2014, 04:09 PM.
                    If you are happy, you are successful.

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                    • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                      Only 50% chance of India achieving 6.5% growth over next govt's term

                      3dsyndication
                      Monday, 21 April 2014

                      There is a one-in-two chance of achieving 6.5% average GDP growth over the next five fiscals and India can no way achieve above 9% as it did in the past, a Crisil study released on Sunday said.

                      The study paints a gloomy picture of the economy in the days to come and rules out the 9% levels the country achieved between 2004 and 2011 on account of a surge in investments and improvement in efficiency.

                      "For a country with 269 million people living below poverty line, which needs to provide jobs to its exploding labour force and where the per-person income is below $4 a day (or $1,500 annually), 6.5% is just not enough. By not doing enough to accelerate growth and thus job creation, India risks setting off a vicious cycle of lower household income, consumption and investment spending that would be so much harder to shake off – not to mention the utter loss of the demographic dividend," said the study.

                      But the scope for further upside is limited and caused due to the policy and regulatory environment in the country – the business climate in which private firms operate.

                      It said uncertainty about economic policies, cost of credit and slowing consumer demand eroded the productivity of existing capital and halted new investments.

                      "Not only does this environment determine increases in factor inputs – labour and capital – but also influences the efficiency with which the two are combined in the production process, resulting in growth or a lack thereof."

                      The country's economic growth has been below 5% for two years largely due to inefficient use of factor inputs, especially capital. Slower investments led to a sharper fall in productivity, it said.

                      There is a 50% chance that 6.5% growth could be achieved, provided the country gets a decisive mandate in the ensuing general polls, Crisil said.

                      The participation of investors in residential house purchases has dropped, too, and in cities like the National Capital Region (NCR) and Ahmedabad, investor exits have put capital values under pressure. For a pointer, new home sales during 2013 was down 29% compared with the peak seen in 2007.

                      "Election outcomes don't impact the economy beyond improving sentiment. What matters are the policies that follow," Crisil said.

                      An improvement in investment efficiency, which has fallen drastically over the last two years, is expected to kick in with faster project clearances, implementation of stalled infrastructure projects and resumption of mining activities.

                      This, in turn, will support investment growth, especially when demand – both domestic and global – begins to rebound, improving capacity utilisation, thus laying the foundation for India's entry into a phase of healthier growth.

                      So the task before the new government is laid out clearly – the focus has to be on improving the efficiency of the economy by debottlenecking it.
                      If you are happy, you are successful.

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