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Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

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Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

Last updated: November 1 2016
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  • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

    Real acres - once again you continue to only post depressing news. How come you missed out the REITS news and the fact that they can bring in over 10bn$ soon to add liquidity ? It was all over the papers. I guess selectively picking up only bearish news and posting daily is not going to bring down prices. If you are a moderator - then pl do be balanced in your views else let some one else more qualified and stable do the job. Just a small feedback.

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    • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

      Job market outlook to significantly improve in next two qtrs. FDI in construction, housing sops, REITS, better job market, tons of money being made in the markets - all point towards a massive bounce back by 1st-2nd qtr next year latest for RE. Add inflation, higher cost of construction, increase labour costs, land acqn..and you have a good brew cooking.

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      • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

        Originally posted by Killerdoggy View Post
        Real acres - once again you continue to only post depressing news. How come you missed out the REITS news and the fact that they can bring in over 10bn$ soon to add liquidity ? It was all over the papers. I guess selectively picking up only bearish news and posting daily is not going to bring down prices. If you are a moderator - then pl do be balanced in your views else let some one else more qualified and stable do the job. Just a small feedback.
        +100000 for that

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        • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

          Robust hiring expected in July-September quarter

          Indian employers are expecting a robust third-quarter hiring pace with payrolls likely to improve sharply compared to last year, the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey released today by ManpowerGroup has revealed.

          Read more at:
          Robust hiring expected in July-September quarter: Manpower Employment Outlook Survey - The Economic Times

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          • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

            killerdoggy,
            I appreciate your attempts to inject"positivism" in the thread.
            I had started a thread highlighting the good news about our economy.
            But it did not cause increase in prices of RE.
            RE prices will increase only if genuine improvement in economy takes place.
            REIT news had come earlier also. Flow of funds into RE sector is good,but how are the funds treated-it goes into making cash transactions,under the table payment for clearances.
            The whole system is opaque.
            Posting of negative factors has one good point in that people will be cautious in buying.
            The rush to book in certain projects in Pune during the last tow years and status of work in those projects need to be seen.
            Feel good factor,surety of gains had made people rush but now they face endless delays in project work commencing even properly.
            One needs a balanced outlook toward any sectoral investment.
            There are too many grey areas in RE and the way our economy functions.
            Present political dispensation may focus on infra and change things for the better.But it takes time-no magic wand.

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            • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

              Originally posted by ThodiSiZamin View Post
              Bubble bursts when the sentiment reaches a point of inflection and people start believing that the market is overvalued i.e. when people stop buying at lofty levels.

              By that logic India shouldn't have any bubble bursts till now. But 1997 was the last time the bubble had burst.

              Cartels can regulate supply and fabricate demand but real demand at the end always remains the king. With runaway inflation, a shaky economy and high interest rates...real demand is going to be low in the coming quarters.
              Cartels can do much more and have been doing a lot for the last few yrs in India. Beyond controlling supply of land the cartel controls the approval process, the interest rates, money printing and restrictions on investments in alternate investment avenues.

              Just look at how gold imports have been curbed. Look at how complex and corrupt the land sector in India is. Look at how banks are bailed out.

              Comment


              • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                Originally posted by realacres View Post
                Man, was supply of land ample in pre-boom period ? Or is it that land went into sea during boom period ? Problem is things remain the same as they were earlier but some excuses are given by builder to justify high RE prices, be it material cost, land etc. Land became important issue as builders grew very greedy & for sheer lust of money started forcefully acquiring land. Lavasa, Nanded City are e.g. of that. Now though this cartel exists, fact remains that they need some buyer to sell this off. Even if the builders have all the land on the planet but no buyer, what are they going to do with that ??
                U are thinking boom period is over? Check out rates in that new DSK scheme. What was it? 74 lakhs for 1 BHK?


                Naidu plans to waive off loans is not of builders but those of farmers & this I feel is only wastage of money. But with less money with banks, won't loans become more expensive ? Think.
                How come banks will have less money? Banks will actually have more money as there will be zero NPAs for the 50K crores that have been lent. Banks will continue to lend even more as they know that the govts will bailout the 'poor' voters.

                This will just increase amount of money in the system and cause reckless behavior. Last time congress govt did this we all know what happened.

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                • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                  Originally posted by realacres View Post
                  Raymond wanted to sell this plot at higher price for past 4 years but couldn't find buyers. Now as mentioned, they have 1500 Cr debt to repay hence they have no option to sell the plot at lower price as they desperately need money to repay their debts. If you see the holding cost of past 4 years, the actual income will be even lesser. But as builders too don't have money to make upfront payment, Raymond is still looking for buyers.

                  As far as owner is concerned, well, owner & company are 2 different things. Even Vijay Mallya has lot control over management in UB Spirits, KFA is bankrupt but Kingfisher calender & IPL goes on.

                  Raymond does not have to repay 1500 crores this yr or next. The current portion of long term debt is just 250 odd crores which will be repaid from the operating profits. No need to sell land for that.

                  This is not a distress sale. After looking at the problems DLF, Unitech and others faced after buying large chunks of land in Mumbai its not surprising that builders are cautious. Only Lodha has the capability to buy something this big.

                  Pls dont compare airlines with branded textiles. No one has ever made profit operating Airlines. Branded textiles may not be one of the best businesses to be in but its not a pathetic business like airlines.

                  Comment


                  • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                    Well.. I am not defending the statements of 'realacres' neither I am opposing them.
                    If you try to have a look st few price trends in pune on some property portals you'll get better idea.
                    Again I am not saying that they are trust worthy or one should consider them as a proof for concluding something, they are just a numerical representation of how the properties got listed on their portals.
                    Here are two links to verify that -
                    1. http://www./property-rates-and-price-trends-in-pune
                    2. http://www./Property-Rates-Trends/AL...-rates-in-Pune

                    These are, unfortunately, only comparison to the last quarter but if you try to get for entire year then you'll get a better picture.

                    What I wanted to point you out is there are 'red' or 'down' arrows increasing which used to be absent in such reports a couple of years back.

                    Considering few buggy brokers and builders who keep posting too many overpriced ads, we can come to a conclusion that the 'red/down' can be more (only if you try to compare these reports with real market conditions and try to believe on what others posted here about real situation out there in market).

                    I am getting same flats as available as they were 4-5 months back and here is the sample list of projects which are offering them - prolife 1/2, skyline, MP, BR, LR etc..
                    Even if you look at resale market, check out with any broker for the status of any flat you visited through him in last month or may be prior to that and you'll get answers like I have another flat on same floor or the deal for same flat was cancelled as buyer didn't have loan limit and so on reasons and if the broker is honest enough he'll tell you that yes the flat is still available. You can survey the same on your own using few property portals.

                    As far as what I seen in RE market in last year (which I never witnessed for west pune in past couple of years) that even big builders are ready to negotiate on price to get buyers. In today's scenario the products are not selling in RE market, check out with builder sale guys and they'll tell you that they used sell 3-4 flats a month per sales guy and now they hardly get a booking in a month collectively.

                    Rest it's upto you if you believe in rumors of flats getting sold fast.. and stock is finishing.

                    Comment


                    • Re : Builders & Real Estate Bulls Theory Proved Wrong

                      Originally posted by investwest View Post
                      Well.. I am not defending the statements of 'realacres' neither I am opposing them.
                      If you try to have a look st few price trends in pune on some property portals you'll get better idea.
                      Again I am not saying that they are trust worthy or one should consider them as a proof for concluding something, they are just a numerical representation of how the properties got listed on their portals.
                      Here are two links to verify that -
                      1. http://www./property-rates-and-price-trends-in-pune
                      2. http://www./Property-Rates-Trends/AL...-rates-in-Pune

                      These are, unfortunately, only comparison to the last quarter but if you try to get for entire year then you'll get a better picture.

                      What I wanted to point you out is there are 'red' or 'down' arrows increasing which used to be absent in such reports a couple of years back.

                      Considering few buggy brokers and builders who keep posting too many overpriced ads, we can come to a conclusion that the 'red/down' can be more (only if you try to compare these reports with real market conditions and try to believe on what others posted here about real situation out there in market).

                      I am getting same flats as available as they were 4-5 months back and here is the sample list of projects which are offering them - prolife 1/2, skyline, MP, BR, LR etc..
                      Even if you look at resale market, check out with any broker for the status of any flat you visited through him in last month or may be prior to that and you'll get answers like I have another flat on same floor or the deal for same flat was cancelled as buyer didn't have loan limit and so on reasons and if the broker is honest enough he'll tell you that yes the flat is still available. You can survey the same on your own using few property portals.

                      As far as what I seen in RE market in last year (which I never witnessed for west pune in past couple of years) that even big builders are ready to negotiate on price to get buyers. In today's scenario the products are not selling in RE market, check out with builder sale guys and they'll tell you that they used sell 3-4 flats a month per sales guy and now they hardly get a booking in a month collectively.

                      Rest it's upto you if you believe in rumors of flats getting sold fast.. and stock is finishing.
                      To add to investwest,

                      A home loan agent I met was complaining that he gets much less business these days.

                      Whether this is a correction, or a temporary stagnation in the market... I cant say.

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