Dear Forum Members, following post is only my opinion!! Feel free to comment.

Well, every knowledgeable person in this forum is trying his / her best to explain the current situation in Pune real estate market. They are trying to explain the past and predict the future. Few of them have their thought based on immense knowledge due to the experience in real estate market, whereas others who has expertise in finance and market conditions of India. Few are victims of the boom, whereas few are just shrewd guys explaining and predicting things based on analytical skills they have ……

Don’t forget there are some marketing guys among us too.

But there are large numbers of people who are planning to buy their first home soon…. May be This Diwali… This post is for these people. Please read through this and if you feel that it makes sense then WAIT till next year. Here is what I have learned in last few years -


    In last two year infrastructure is not significantly improved around suburbs of Pune, but the rates have. Water problem, Transportation, DP roads, MSEB Meters issues everything has remained as it is since last two years. The only thing improved in Existing Main Roads and May be at some locations - BRT. Both have their own reasons why they are being implemented so rapidly.
    In last 1 year (after the slowdown hit), the whole focus of the builder community was to sell what is available in their inventory. The 50% builders were able to sell their 75-80% inventory (Good Projects Only) (Don’t get surprised - there was large number of people who do not read this forum or don’t know it exists, but who needed homes urgently and took advantages of stable or reduced prices). These builders have at least recovered their cost if not found profits.
    Bigger projects, such as townships and high end projects were flops. It seems that exception is Nanded City. But not sure about it. Whatever they had launched, most of it, they were able to sell with 2500 rate. But there are buildings they have not yet launched in Phase 1 (I think 2BHK ones) and then Phase 2 is still there. Secondly, most of these projects haven’t even taken off which means minimum loss to builders (may be only cost of land if purchased, cost of plan sanctioning, foundation if planted and Marketing).
    Various surveys have been made prior to slowdown (and after the slowdown and in recent months) regarding requirement of homes in Pune or all over India. These surveys are showing the numbers that have made builders more excited during the boom time and now more hopeful in not so recent slowdown. Most of us don’t know these surveys and its data. But what I can tell you that, builders know more than most of us in this forum about it and future prospects of real estate. If Indian Market is going to improve in future they would be the first to know it. One of the surveys made public recently was the need to “Budget housing Projects”.
    Elections are going to add another dimension to Maharashtra real estate market. Change or not change in “Sarkar” will change the RE market drastically.
    IT industry which was the root cause of the real estate boom has itself suffered enormously due to American market turmoil. But real estate market of Pune had already moved away from IT. Indian businesses, industries and services improved in last couple of years in Retail, Auto, Oil, Steel, Pharma, Exports, Food, Medical etc. including government income improved which made real estate market to flourish without IT. Real estate has moved on. One example is where Ford, Toyota and GM suffered due to American slowdown; domestic auto market was relatively unharmed. Who is buying all these cars? People who can afford to buy cars can certainly afford to buy a home right?
    Basically Income has improved in Cities. not same thing for Rural. There are a large number of people traveling towards cities now. Ask, your daily Cab driver, where is he from and if he has a home yet in Pune or not…
    And finally, global market is in recovery mode.
    Unfortunately, most of the members in this forum are IT people or related. If you don’t believe me, let’s take a poll!!

    Let’s come back to Real Estate. Here are some categories of the Projects that I would like to make based on current situation of real estate market.





        Builders with good Projects – While we are talking about these projects in length in this forum for last one year, builders were able to sell around 80% of the inventory they had. Naturally, they have increased the rates as they now know that these projects are popular ones or they don’t have major inventory left.
        Builders with flop Projects – Well, they have not increased the rates of their project. Mithila, Bloomfield, Amonara, Swiss County to name a few. Most of them would be available for negotiations too. But as I said earlier, most of these projects haven’t even taken off which means minimum loss to builders.
        Builders who are yet to launch new projects – Type 1. There are few builders who do not have existing inventory or is already recovered cost and but have some new projects they want to launch.
        Builders who are yet to launch new projects – Type 2. There are few builders who are stills struggling with their existing inventory and but to add to their misery they still have some new projects they want to launch. They are in immense pressure to sell their existing inventory. You will start seeing ads in paper from these builders. Mostly these ads will be for the projects which are know since last one or two years.
        Builders who are in loss - Well, I don’t know yet how to identify these builders but as far as I can tell, only small scale builders would be in this category for now. They will have less than 3 projects at their hand at this time.

        Now, let’s talk about price hike – I think its driven by an organization or an association

        a. Builders with good Projects – Of course they have done it. They were successful to sell most of their flats. Now they can increase their prices the way they want.
        b. Builders with flop Projects – No increase in price seen here.Most of them would be available for negotiations too.
        c. Builders who are yet to launch new projects – Type 1 – Of course, they are waiting for Diwali or even New Years Eve. They don’t really bother about current price hike and discounts. But, if price increases for existing projects, launching rate of new projects will go up too.
        d. Builders who are yet to launch new projects – Type 2 – They will be OK to increase the price now, and will provide huge discount in Diwali. People who don’t closely follow this will fall for it. And flats would be sold at the same rate that of 6 months back. Builders will come close to closing their inventory. Secondly, they would be launching new projects with attractive rates in Diwali, hoping that people will rush to buy. Increasing cash at their hand.
        e. Builders who are in loss – These guys are screwed anyways. Whether to increase the price or decrease it a lot. Builders association would be forcing these builders to keep quite too.

        Now, why not to buy a House in this Diwali?

        You will be buying a house from one of these explained categories. I can not predict that your decision will be right or wrong, but I can certainly say that you would end up paying the amount that you could have paid in last one year or in worst case you would end up paying much more.

        But if you wait till next year, you could end up making a resale purchase or a making better decision just by analyzing market situation at that time. If real estate is still booming, your jobs conditions might have already improved too (salaries, promotions etc.) and you would be able to afford the flats anyways.

        For Projects that will be launched between 2009 OCT to 2010 April, the launching rate will be around 2100 to 2550. This will look attractive to most of us, because of the recent hike in prices of existing projects. And we will end up paying hell lot more than these projects and their locations deserves. But again, you can buy flats in these new projects in 2010 as well. So why hurry in this Diwali?
Read more
Reply
170 Replies
Sort by :Filter by :
  • buying a land and develop it throgh a contract is a good idea but it needs a lot of effort and organization.

    Its easier in case the people who are forming a group knows each other (like team of people from same company or common friends of thiers) .

    Otherwise its very difficult to organize the financial resources , if one joins group , then calls off or so .

    Dont know how well the ONE OF INITIATE FROM GROUP OF PEOPLE FROM IT THROUGH YAHOO GROUP initiate has taken off, i had seen they are again making a phase II.

    One of mail from forum suggest that now the rates would be 2500 psf . I feel thats no way at much discount to the market rates (and in case reality crash u would get similar price anyway). then there the uncertainity about where the land will be purchased, when the possession will come, transparency in the utilization of the funds received , allocation of contract to the good builder etc.

    There need a trust factor and closely known group otherwise its not much different from buying from a builder
    CommentQuote
  • Right said Porwal. 2500 for self housing projects seems high. This discount can be got even if bulk purchase is made in a project from the builder, that too ready poss. The location of this project is bad, doesn't look good from family perspective in general.

    Anyways, I am of the opinion that committed members should come together & build only that much houses (+5-10%) which are required. Becomes faster & can be done at better location too.

    What bothers me is that over-dependence on the builder again for development. The contract should be such that if a builder/contractor fails to deliver, the project can be transfered to some one else.
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by realacres
    By that logic, one should buy at any price as it for end use? Right. C'mon man, we have better things to do with our money than wasting it on inflated RE prices. Stay on rent till prices fall. Keep saving till then & use this as downpayment, reducing the home loan amount & thus the EMIs.

    Bang on spot, post Diwali will be Diwala for RE builders.


    Diwali is gone; does anyone see Diwala of any RE builder :D?
    CommentQuote
  • Gen

    Waking up this thread after 6 years.


    Sympathies to those who followed this gyan in 2009 Diwali and let the 2009 rates pass away.




    Page 14 of this thread contain massive gloom gyan poured out in 2009.
    In reality year 2011 (2 years following this) RE prices went up by 30% and 2012 up by around 15%.
    Massive hiring by IT companies between 2009 and 2013.
    The RE prices took breather only in 2015 (from 2008 to 2014 gloom gyan was constantly pouring without interruptions and big predictions).


    Hinjewadi saw major center by TCS / Mahindra, Wipro/Congi expanding to new phases (around 20 K IT people added just to Hinjewadi in next 5 years). Thought antidote to gloom gyan was necessary.
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by compuwalah
    Waking up this thread after 6 years.


    Sympathies to those who followed this gyan in 2009 Diwali and let the 2009 rates pass away.




    Page 14 of this thread contain massive gloom gyan poured out in 2009.
    In reality year 2011 (2 years following this) RE prices went up by 30% and 2012 up by around 15%.
    Massive hiring by IT companies between 2009 and 2013.
    The RE prices took breather only in 2015 (from 2008 to 2014 gloom gyan was constantly pouring without interruptions and big predictions).


    Hinjewadi saw major center by TCS / Mahindra, Wipro/Congi expanding to new phases (around 20 K IT people added just to Hinjewadi in next 5 years). Thought antidote to gloom gyan was necessary.


    laughing with tears in my eyes that 2200-2500psft rate were discussed as too high and overpriced.. I left many schemes in that price range.. (I was reading threads since early 2009 without joining forum, joined after 1 year in 2010 as stillsearching)
    Also can't forget realacres (don't know where he is now?) who was considered as property expert in this forum and had many followers including me. He always claimed that bubble will burst and it will comedown in range of 1800 but it never did and now we are seeing more than 5500 :)
    CommentQuote