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Happy New Year - and predictions for 2010

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Happy New Year - and predictions for 2010

Last updated: September 26 2016
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  • #41

    #41

    Re : Happy New Year - and predictions for 2010

    Yes, what's with these psudos in India who claim to know everything about US while they have never stepped there. I was reading Chetan Bhagat's "One night at Call center" and the characters in that novel freely denigrating Americans are dump and ignorant. I don't know if CB has ever stayed in the US. But man, look outside your call center, that disgusting smell, crap everywhere, no roads. come on. can you even compare us with US?


    Venky, I disagree with one point though, most music was first invented by blacks and then copied by the whites.

    Originally posted by Venkytalks View Post

    Not all whites are dumb? Could not agree more. They are the most intelligent people in the world barring none except jews. The top 150 million in USA includes maybe 130 million brilliant whites. They are the ones who write the textbooks you and I read, design the original computers, and other original thinking which the Japanese then rip off and mass produce. They write the original ERP and CRM s which the Indians modify for customisation. Indian cybercoolies on the other hand are well known for writing the buggiest s in the business (I am not in IT - hearsay only). Whites are the ones who play the music we (at least I) hear, write the books I read, make the movies we watch and make the drugs we use to get better.

    The best cream of India (Maybe 0.1%, 1 million people or so) comes up to the average of this enormous pool of intelligent and hard working whites. For each 1 of the very very best Indian (or Chinese) of nobel winning capability, there will be 10,000 such whites.

    Even their secretaries are fantastic and would be high class officers in India.

    I have lived abroad and deeply admire the whites. If only my countrymen measured up!

    By white trash, one normally means ill educated poor working class whites. Dominated by a lot of Poles, Italians, Irish and other ill educated and lazy Whites (Note - a much higher percentage of Poles, Ities, Irish etc are very intelligent than Indians, so I am not putting them down. I know where we stand). There are some 50 million such white people in USA.

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    • #42

      #42

      Re : Happy New Year - and predictions for 2010

      Issue is not when to buy - for self occupation, the time to buy is always NOW.

      Issue is, buy what you can afford.

      If what you can afford is too small for your needs, wait, accumulate a downpayment and then buy.

      Forget market timing, unless you are buying a second home for investment purpose.
      Venky (Please read watch a or before posting)

      Comment

      • #43

        #43

        Re : Happy New Year - and predictions for 2010

        Originally posted by ttt43 View Post

        Venky, I disagree with one point though, most music was first invented by blacks and then copied by the whites.
        Yes, but I like the black music of the 40s, which transformed into Rock n Roll, then rock, then alternative rock.

        I cannot stand the current hip hop though.

        Fortunately, the Indian music scene has vastly improved in the last ten years and a lot of our music is pretty good.
        Venky (Please read watch a or before posting)

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        • #44

          #44

          Re : Happy New Year - and predictions for 2010

          Why not extend this thread into predictions for 2011?!

          Folks,

          What about it? Any predictions for RE, Stocks, bullion and commodities in 2011?

          cheers

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          • #45

            #45

            Re : Happy New Year - and predictions for 2010

            Originally posted by wiseman View Post
            Folks,

            What about it? Any predictions for RE, Stocks, bullion and commodities in 2011?

            cheers
            As we are close to year end 2010, so first lets analyze 2010 prediction made by "So-Called" experts here & lets see whether any of Those Comes "TRUE" than wasting more time on Stupid Predictions & posts full of "incomprehensible" Charts & some isolated "Bearish" references thrown it to it

            ***Bytheway I am still waiting for your "prediction" of DOW *1000* points in near future...may this come TRUE at least in next 30-40 years
            Last edited by ash7979; December 19 2010, 09:04 PM.
            Cheers,
            -Ashish

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            • #46

              #46

              Re : Happy New Year - and predictions for 2010

              Week 1, Dec 19-25 2010

              Originally posted by ash7979 View Post
              As we are close to year end 2010, so first lets analyze 2010 prediction made by "So-Called" experts here & lets see whether any of Those Comes "TRUE" than wasting more time on Stupid Predictions & posts full of "incomprehensible" Charts & some isolated "Bearish" references thrown it to it

              ***Bytheway I am still waiting for your "prediction" of DOW *1000* points in near future...may this come TRUE at least in next 30-40 years

              Agree. At the end the year, its time to pause, look back and analyze what
              predictions have come true and what have not.

              Its human nature to not admit ones mistake.

              I am waiting for prediction of the day when American's have to run store to store to stock essentials, since $$ will loose value very fast.

              Mr Heretic,

              Nothing happened in last week, so read more of your articles and charts and suggest if this week that situation would arise in USA.

              Would ask you same question next week.

              Good luck.

              Comment

              • #47

                #47

                Re : Happy New Year - and predictions for 2010

                How wrong was my prediction!!!!!

                Originally posted by ash7979 View Post
                As we are close to year end 2010, so first lets analyze 2010 prediction made by "So-Called" experts here & lets see whether any of Those Comes "TRUE" than wasting more time on Stupid Predictions & posts full of "incomprehensible" Charts & some isolated "Bearish" references thrown it to it

                ***Bytheway I am still waiting for your "prediction" of DOW *1000* points in near future...may this come TRUE at least in next 30-40 years
                Self analysis : MAN, was I wrong!!!!!!

                I got almost everything wrong. USA managed to survive, Indian stocks went up further rather than down.

                Only two things I managed to get right. One - that gold would go up, maybe to 1400dollars. That came true but for the wrong reasons!!! It went up because of QE2 and now the expectation of QE3. It did not rise because of the reasons I gave a year ago.

                Two- My prediction that India would have inflation was actually not a prediction, but a statement of the status quo maintaining - since we already had inflation in 2010 beginning. SO I dont claim victory for this either. This is the reason why all mutual funds and their managers behave the same way - because the average status quo prediction is likely to be right. Like predicting good monsoon means you will be right 6/7 times, just because those are the long term odds.

                I thought US treasuries would crash. They did - but after rising to a yield of 2.5% - which I did not predict. Basically, I never thought US fed would do QE-2. It caught me by surprise. Everything else - gold, bonds, Indian stocks, Indian RE - is consequent upon that.

                Most middle of the road predictions turn out right. Most extreme predictions turn out wrong.

                However, I still maintain my ADVICE part (in later posts on this thread and elsewhere). Which are

                1. One should diversify wealth in RE in addition to stock bonds and gold.

                2. For own use, dont time.

                3. Buy only what you afford and dont leverage - either avoid completely or at worst, dont leverage for more than 50% of the flat cost and 25% of your take home pay.

                I myself invest on these principles.

                My FEAR - that was what my prediction was.

                I used that prediction in only one way though - I booked an under construction project than one where there was no construction at all, or a plot. I might have made better profits if I had taken a risky bet in Gurgaon, or bought a plot, but I decided to forgo that risky bet and go in for something very very safe. My returns were correspondingly smaller.

                But better safe than sorry. I have no regrets. One does not take unnecessary risks with big money.

                Similarly, in March 2009, I judged the stock market to be too risky. I thought real estate was the better bet and went with it. I again have no regrets that I missed the opportunity of a lifetime.

                It was too risky - and a risky bet is never worth it.

                And my current and only take home from this year is this: Predictions can be wrong. But decision making has the purpose of taking the best possible decision given the circumstances.

                So although all my predictions were wrong, I still stand by all my decisions.

                Let us see what time does to my decisions - whether they stand the test of time or fall by the wayside like my predictions.

                Let us observe the rest of 2010 before making predictions for 2011.
                Venky (Please read watch a or before posting)

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                • #48

                  #48

                  Re : Happy New Year - and predictions for 2010

                  Originally posted by Venkytalks View Post
                  Self analysis : MAN, was I wrong!!!!!!

                  You are a Gentleman. Any one who learns from mistakes go ahead in life.

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                  • #49

                    #49

                    Re : Happy New Year - and predictions for 2010

                    How can you be gentlemen?

                    Originally posted by RAJESHP View Post
                    You are a Gentleman. Any one who learns from mistakes go ahead in life.

                    Rajesh, Ash, Compu,

                    You might not like what I have to say but you must admit some truth in it.

                    I find it very strange that Rajesh stands in judgement of Venky's admission of being wrong when he himself has only passed comments on other's predictions without himself venturing out with his own.

                    Similarly with Ash and Compu.

                    Isn't it so simple to say Sachin must have done this and Sehwag must have done that while yourself sitting in front of the telly not having ever ventured out into the field?

                    Therefore, instead of passing comments on Heretic or my charts, etc, etc, why don't you guys actually step out and predict something of your own so that you then become fit to pass judgment about others?

                    Are you guys man enough? Or simply keep passing wind from both ends, passing armchair judgments while yourself not having the guts to come out with some prediction of your own!!!

                    Of course, I do not expect any of you to be "Gentlemen" and take this in the right spirit and come out with some contributions of your own. Surprise us all!!!

                    cheers

                    Comment

                    • #50

                      #50

                      Re : Happy New Year - and predictions for 2010

                      Originally posted by wiseman View Post

                      Therefore, instead of passing comments on Heretic or my charts, etc, etc, why don't you guys actually step out and predict something of your own so that you then become fit to pass judgment about others?
                      I beg your pardon. Its like saying first become drunkard yourself and then pass comment on other being a drunkard. I am not quiet able to get your logic. This are going equally tangential as some of your charts.

                      Originally posted by wiseman View Post
                      Are you guys man enough? Or simply keep passing wind from both ends, passing armchair judgments while yourself not having the guts to come out with some prediction of your own!!!

                      cheers
                      Now whose language is hateful ? Instead of having a heart to accept the
                      fact that hardly a one or two of your 20 predictions come true (that one can do even with rolling a dice and it will give you accuracy of 1 in 6 than your 1 in 10). You call the act to post any TDH kind of prediction which never comes true and then proceed to post other one without a regret manly ?

                      Also no one is getting judgemental here. Simply appreciating that Venky has the heart to accept in public about some prediction coming wrong. I will rather read his post more seriously in future as he will not cover one wrong prediction with one another. Just stop and say , yes this went wrong.

                      Btw I just read your post as I saw it using less than 50 lines so no fear in drowning is the sea of words .

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