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  • You could have added something like Diwali of 2012 or Holi of 2012 :) for easy categorization. Good that people are now predicting two year ahead (six month , 1 year time span predictions have been abandoned due to finger/credibility burnt ). Anyway this be categorized as one more Diwali/Holi thread . doomers !! for your further action. Can you make it more gloomy compared to other D/H threads ... wisey can contribute some charts here to support same .
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  • Looking at Diwali, Jun-Jul threads & now this one....it seems this is a Recession & world economy forum & not RE forum anymore :D

    Great to have members who can predict recessions & comment on next course of World Economy. :bab (59):
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  • I was exploring on the lines of posts of "wiseman" and found links which is talking about recession (not knocking at the doors, but can't be overlooked)...

    Below is one of the link:

    http://community.nasdaq.com/News/2010-06/the-risk-of-recession.aspx?storyid=26454

    I don't want to frighten any one but looking for smart comments on this so that we can understand the economy and can decide whether to buy or wait till recession..

    Since predicted 2012 is not too far and most of the buyers who will buy underconstruction would be hopefully getting possession by that time.. if it happened, RE rates would be down and those buyers will feel at loosing end...

    So just to avoid that feeling.. we need a healthy discussion so that one can take smart decision..(although decision are correctly judged over the time but we can make some start)

    Will inflation and petrol prices also contribute towrds this ?
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  • Its too late by the time it gets official ...

    Originally Posted by sans_re
    I was exploring on the lines of posts of "wiseman" and found links which is talking about recession (not knocking at the doors, but can't be overlooked)...

    Below is one of the link:

    http://community.nasdaq.com/News/2010-06/the-risk-of-recession.aspx?storyid=26454

    I don't want to frighten any one but looking for smart comments on this so that we can understand the economy and can decide whether to buy or wait till recession..

    Since predicted 2012 is not too far and most of the buyers who will buy underconstruction would be hopefully getting possession by that time.. if it happened, RE rates would be down and those buyers will feel at loosing end...

    So just to avoid that feeling.. we need a healthy discussion so that one can take smart decision..(although decision are correctly judged over the time but we can make some start)

    Will inflation and petrol prices also contribute towrds this ?



    Folks,
    Notwithstanding comments like the one from Compuwallah, here's the deal ...
    The definition of Recession (primarily US Govt based) is 2 consequitive quarters of negative growth. Which means you need to be 6 mnths in recession before it is official. Does that make any sense to you in deciding what to do (its like announcing the departure of the train 6 hours after its left; all you can do is look for the next one!)

    Probably the only economist / prof who categorically predicted the Great Recession (which, in my opinion happens to be the first part of the Greater Depression) was Roubini back in 2006. When he spoke about it then people laughed. The next year people were searching for him to listen carefully. Today he is a star!

    As far as I'm concerned, the Depression never ended. It took a breather in 2009 simply because it was given a massive dose of adrenaline. This only makes the case worse for the next phase of the depression as people (especially in the West) as far more in debt (including Govt debt which simply means that each of us is on the hook for that much more money in taxes, ultimately).

    People in this forum seem to enjoy deriding the doomsters. Maybe they are scared deep down. Maybe they are too simplistic.

    Just remember that, once you have taken on a loan of 40 lakhs (on which the interest is another 40 lakhs), you have to pay every one of the EMIs without fail every month for the next 15-20 years while running the risk of joblessness and resultant lack of income and money to pay due to various reasons - recessions, sickness, marriage and family which can cost a bomb, while home prices may simply remain stagnant for long periods (or even decline) and liquidity may simply dry up for a while too.

    The builders have put you up to be a sucker by catering to your emotions (fear and greed) and they and the bankers are counting the mney and laughing all the way to the bank. You are down to eating curdrice for the next 20 years - ask Real.

    This is the time you need to be extra careful and fearful. Not extra overconfident and dismissive.

    Anyways, if you aren't, its your funeral.

    cheers
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  • I have given up reading business insider - their doomsday predictions rarely come true.

    For that matter, most doomsday predictions do not come true. This is a fact of life.

    Regardless, there are some things which we need to ponder, which can be easily predicted.

    1. Americans, Europeans, Koreans and Japanese are far far more productive than most Indians who fall in the "educated/middle/professional" class.

    Americans who are IT pros are much more capable than Indians who are IT pros. Indians match them only after years of training in West. Staying in India we cannot even comprehend how uncompetitive we are.

    2. Average Westerners and Easterners are even farther removed from average Indians - The spitting shitting classes of India are basically unemployable. They are no threat to the West and will never improve their productivity and their lot.

    Hence India cannot have a great future. To do so we need good politicians and administrators. We need rule of law. We need work culture.

    These will never come. Do you think we are going to get decent politicians in the next decade?

    The answer is NO NO NO.

    So if I have to predict the future, I would say:

    1. West has nothing to worry, their people are already productive. They will face the recession and will overcome it over the next decade.

    2. Japanese, Koreans, Taiwan has nothing to worry. They are the people who are giving the West a headache by doing things cheaper than the Westerners. They have a great future.

    3. Chinese have created 500 million productive young people. Their old people who are unproductive and living on farms will die and they will become like Taiwan over the next 2 decades.

    4. India has about 5 million people who are as productive as the West, 50 million cheap workers who are as productive as Chinese workers and rest 1050 million unemployable people, currently doing the equivalent of taking in each others washing.

    We have much to worry.

    India is a great place to invest just like a company in trouble is a great place to invest - if it solves the problems, you get fantastic returns.

    If it fails, you lose your shirt. In my estimate,


    Chances of India's success = 2%.

    Chances of India failure =98%

    Whats your estimate?

    Each day that passes under this stupid inept congress govt. the more convinced I am that they will run the country into the ground.

    Basically they dont have a clue what they are doing, being happy in their corruption.

    India has much to worry from this recession.

    My predictions for India:

    Creeping inflation of 15% per annum for the next 15 years.

    Steady RE prices for now, with periodinc boom busts of 50-100% in either direction. Giving chance for both bulls and bears to say "I told you so"

    Border wars and water wars with China and Pakistan - which we will basically lose

    Internal destabilisations pronounced - people will abandon eastern states and Maoist infested states as ungovernable.

    In this scenario, we should envy the west their problems - and how over the next decade they will solve it.

    Because we will probably collapse without India ever becoming developed.
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  • Originally Posted by Venkytalks


    Steady RE prices for now, with periodinc boom busts of 50-100% in either direction. Giving chance for both bulls and bears to say "I told you so"



    This is what i call a Win-Win situation.

    Originally Posted by Venkytalks


    Border wars and water wars with China and Pakistan - which we will basically lose

    Internal destabilisations pronounced - people will abandon eastern states and Maoist infested states as ungovernable.

    In this scenario, we should envy the west their problems - and how over the next decade they will solve it.

    Because we will probably collapse without India ever becoming developed.


    Wiseman, Venky Gulp Gulp.. ye kya bol rahe ho !!!!!!!

    VK
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  • And now about today's situation in external environment.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-01/global-manufacturing-shows-weakening-from-china-to-europe-as-exports-wane.html

    Will this affect India ? And RE?
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  • Originally Posted by Venkytalks
    I have given up reading business insider - their doomsday predictions rarely come true.

    For that matter, most doomsday predictions do not come true. This is a fact of life.

    Regardless, there are some things which we need to ponder, which can be easily predicted.

    1. Americans, Europeans, Koreans and Japanese are far far more productive than most Indians who fall in the "educated/middle/professional" class.

    Americans who are IT pros are much more capable than Indians who are IT pros. Indians match them only after years of training in West. Staying in India we cannot even comprehend how uncompetitive we are.

    2. Average Westerners and Easterners are even farther removed from average Indians - The spitting shitting classes of India are basically unemployable. They are no threat to the West and will never improve their productivity and their lot.

    Hence India cannot have a great future. To do so we need good politicians and administrators. We need rule of law. We need work culture.

    These will never come. Do you think we are going to get decent politicians in the next decade?

    The answer is NO NO NO.

    So if I have to predict the future, I would say:

    1. West has nothing to worry, their people are already productive. They will face the recession and will overcome it over the next decade.

    2. Japanese, Koreans, Taiwan has nothing to worry. They are the people who are giving the West a headache by doing things cheaper than the Westerners. They have a great future.

    3. Chinese have created 500 million productive young people. Their old people who are unproductive and living on farms will die and they will become like Taiwan over the next 2 decades.

    4. India has about 5 million people who are as productive as the West, 50 million cheap workers who are as productive as Chinese workers and rest 1050 million unemployable people, currently doing the equivalent of taking in each others washing.

    We have much to worry.

    India is a great place to invest just like a company in trouble is a great place to invest - if it solves the problems, you get fantastic returns.

    If it fails, you lose your shirt. In my estimate,


    Chances of India's success = 2%.

    Chances of India failure =98%

    Whats your estimate?

    Each day that passes under this stupid inept congress govt. the more convinced I am that they will run the country into the ground.

    Basically they dont have a clue what they are doing, being happy in their corruption.

    India has much to worry from this recession.

    My predictions for India:

    Creeping inflation of 15% per annum for the next 15 years.

    Steady RE prices for now, with periodinc boom busts of 50-100% in either direction. Giving chance for both bulls and bears to say "I told you so"

    Border wars and water wars with China and Pakistan - which we will basically lose

    Internal destabilisations pronounced - people will abandon eastern states and Maoist infested states as ungovernable.

    In this scenario, we should envy the west their problems - and how over the next decade they will solve it.

    Because we will probably collapse without India ever becoming developed.


    Hi Venky,
    Interesting post and it makes me think why i came back to India after being an NRI....i definitely do not agree with some of your points.
    We keep on thinking about so many miraculous things that we should change abt India-

    -Upgrade urban infrastructure
    -Overhaul the entire political system
    -Reduce population to half.
    -Mandatory education of 15 years to every child
    -Remove hunger from millions
    -Finish corruption and greed.
    -Military control to tackle terrorism and maoists.

    -Overall change the attitude of Indians,

    India of 110 Cr. population. India having more than 30 odd states. India having more than 300+ districts. India having more than 2400 Taluk places. India having more than 72,000 odd villages. India having more than 784 IAS officers and equal number of IPS & IFS officers. India having more than 175 official languages. India that took 150 years to get freedom. India which basic cultural discipline goes back 5000 years.

    What happens in Bangalore may not happen in Pune. What happens in Pune may not happen in Mumbai. What happens in Mumbai may not happen in Delhi.
    But that does not mean that country is useless and will have 98% failure.

    And that is why people like Gandhiji, Lokmanya Tilak, Veer Savarkar, Gopal Krishna Gokhale, Lal Bahadur Shastri, Sardar Patel, Abdul Gafar Khan, Barister Nath Pai, Guru Rabindranath Tagore, Dr. Annie Besant, Netaji Subhash Chandra Bose, Bankim Chantra Chatarjee, Mahatma Jyotiba Phule, Saint Vinoba Bhave, Baba Amte + his 2 sons + their wives + his grandsons & many ones are praised & remembered today also. They put-in sincere efforts to change fellow citizens. They put-in sincere efforts to up lift the society without bothering cast & community. They will be praised by our motherland India for next 100 years.
    And all of them did it on their own. No one. Let me repeat no one told them to do so. Not even their parents & grand parents.

    There will be a lot of people talking about lifestyle comfort etc in other countries but fact is a fact that somewhere down the heart u will always fell like an alien.
    In India u do not have to ever prove to anyone that u are a green card holder or a citizen of the country.

    I have traveled many countries and find there is no place that can give a human being an equal measure of love, dignity, sense of belonging and respect - as much as INDIA ! I agree

    I always felt isolated in US and ME.

    WE all know India is poised to grow at 10% every year. Every country and every company is willing to set up biz ops with us. Stock market, auto market, manufacturing, construction etc all the segments are showing positive outlook.

    East or West INDIA IS THE BEST.
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  • But india will also grow in corruption and no body care about aam adami..see the inflation.. price rises...salary hike has no effect.. companies are imposing new cost cutting policies...virtually I feel I am at the same level as i was 2 years back with more competition in the market...

    We should not deviate from the topic talking about politics here... ultimately we are concerned about our living standard which is also dependent on buying at least one sweet home.. seeing the ups and downs it would be v hard to take decision of buying home in near future.. being an IT guy/MNC professional we are always on the edge of loosing jobs whenever something worst happened.. not at all secure...Pune is turning out to be much costlier and may be in future it may draw blood from your pocket..again survival of the fittest...who will have surplus money would survive....else will have to work v hard for survival....
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  • Hi Muneesh,

    Posts on the Pune macroeconomics discussion boards tend to be wide ranging and have a lot of wild projections. Dont take my rantings too seriously and dont get emotional about what I wrote. I was in a bad mood.

    Originally Posted by Munish Malhautra


    India which basic cultural discipline goes back 5000 years.

    I disagree. India has had very few periods of cultural discipline and long periods of cultural chaos - which has been repeatedly commented upon by historic commentators from 300BC to Muslim and British times.

    What happens in Bangalore may not happen in Pune. What happens in Pune may not happen in Mumbai. What happens in Mumbai may not happen in Delhi.
    But that does not mean that country is useless and will have 98% failure.

    Chances of us becoming like China/Taiwal/Korea/USA/Brazil/Russia/Europe etc in the way we live and work and how the cities will be - I estimate that chance at 2% given current status and current projections for the next 30 years. Thats not necessarily a bad thing, it doesnt mean we wont be happy.

    And that is why people like Gandhiji, Lokmanya Tilak, Veer Savarkar, Gopal Krishna Gokhale, Lal Bahadur Shastri, Sardar Patel, Abdul Gafar Khan, Barister Nath Pai, Guru Rabindranath Tagore, Dr. Annie Besant, Netaji Subhash Chandra Bose, Bankim Chantra Chatarjee, Mahatma Jyotiba Phule, Saint Vinoba Bhave, Baba Amte + his 2 sons + their wives + his grandsons & many ones are praised & remembered today also. They put-in sincere efforts to change fellow citizens. They put-in sincere efforts to up lift the society without bothering cast & community. They will be praised by our motherland India for next 100 years.

    I dont want to hurt your feelings here but as a hyper critical type of person I find it unfortunate that their failings are not criticised, which would not diminish them in any way but the understanding would give direction to our future.


    There will be a lot of people talking about lifestyle comfort etc in other countries but fact is a fact that somewhere down the heart u will always fell like an alien.

    Of course one does, thats why I chose to live and work in India

    In India u do not have to ever prove to anyone that u are a green card holder or a citizen of the country.

    I have traveled many countries and find there is no place that can give a human being an equal measure of love, dignity, sense of belonging and respect - as much as INDIA ! I agree

    I always felt isolated in US and ME.

    So did I, and always felt happy returning home. But that does not mean I dont appreciate the bad along with the good.

    WE all know India is poised to grow at 10% every year.

    I dont agree. That is just the hype. India was poised to grow at 5-6%, after Narasimha Rao's 1st two years and Vajpayee's last 2 years (rest of their rule was crap) but now with poor quality econimic policies of the last 6 years and printing of money increasing fiscal deficit, this growth of 10% achieved in nominal terms will be pulled down by inflation of 15%. Current economic policies will push us towards 3% real growth. Poverty will increase.

    Every country and every company is willing to set up biz ops with us. Stock market, auto market, manufacturing, construction etc all the segments are showing positive outlook.

    We did a lot of big talking, people looked at us. If we dont achieve what we talked about, they will turn away just as quickly.

    East or West INDIA IS THE BEST.

    Amen.

    If people leave us alone, Indians will blunder along and the people will be happy.

    In the past, we have never been left alone - India has been repeatedly invaded and subjugated.

    Why do you think Pakistan and China will leave us alone? They havent left us alone for the last 60 years, have they?


    Coming back to topic, I think inflation will ensure that those who invest in RE will not lose. Those who do not invest will regret.

    It has always been that way in India. Every slow down will shrink construction activities and make RE scarcity come into play to command a valuation.

    Which is exactly what happened in Mumbai and Gurgaon in 2009 and early 2010. As projects dried up, the remaining ones started commanding a premium, now prices up 30-40% from bottom, higher than peak levels of 2008.

    NOIDA and Bangalore went the other way with affordable supply in abundance getting released. If the economy falters, these projects will falter and slow down. Supply will dry up and existing NOIDA flats or ready to move in ones will shoot up.

    On the other hand, if our economy does well, we will have prices going up, but at the same time there will be a lot of release of new supply, which will be soaked up by a burgeoning middle class. As these colonies integrate with the main city, their prices will move up to match the old city prices.

    Either way prices will only rise. But if economy does well, a lot of poor people will move into middle class. If economy collapses, there will be increased poverty accompanied by chaos.

    Regardless of what happens, RE will only go up.
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  • Finally I have returned to india and back in Baner-Pune after 4 years...in the firet 2-3 days itself I realised that this is a big pile of SHIT...and the living cost here is way expensive than the west and no quality in life...We call Pune as a most & fastest developing city in the country...I can't imagine about other cities and over all development of India and how poor it could be...
    The problem is not with our land, it is so beautiful, the problem is with the people and the spoiled culture...we all are pathetic...and we believe that we are soon becoming a super power.

    My kids ask me 'dad, why there are no trees and only buildings...why are the roads so narrow and bumpy always...why there is no garden/play ground in our area...why plastic bags and litter is spread every where...'

    Any ways, keep discussing about growth stories of India, that at least it keep us fresh and make us comfortable...live in that illusion.
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  • Hi Venky,

    This could become an endless discussion as we share the same patriotic passion. we all love our country.

    As regards to RE yes i agree it will always go up in the long term.

    Monds what u felt is obviously what normally people will feel after coming back from cushy environments to the struggling daily life. (my family will tell that:):)

    Many of our educated minds have left India for better environment and monetary gains and have not looked back. It certainly does not matter to me if there is some Indian being nominated to Obama's team or an Indian Lady winning elections for some office,abroad. The bottom line is the contribution to our own country. `To change the system one has to participate in it . One acquaintance left the country for better medical facilities and comfortable living. He perhaps will end up making zero contribution to India as a nation.'
    India is now progressing rapidly inspite of the fact there is still a long way to go,(this is the biggest issue-LONG WAY TO GO hence whatever improvement happens, is hardly visible.)many challenges and roadblocks stare at our faces but the grit and determination of the young ,intelligent mind is now to bulldoze and crush it.
    Also many of my widely spread brethren will agree that corruption,lawlessness and society hazards are present everywhere. In this hour we need the intelligent,good mind to come back to India and raise the banner of progress.Believe me,this country carries the best values and very strong social structure which is absent in many.
    Ok people abroad can help India monetarily, can establish industries and hence employment in India, start hospitals, educational institutes but they can not directly work towards improving the systems,bureaucracy, judiciary, polity by living abroad. YOU HAVE TO BE PART OF A SYSTEM TO CHANGE IT. Just a thought..would Mahatma Gandhi have been successful had he stayed in UK/South Africa for his entire life ? No. Same thing for Sardar Patel and many others who came back to India for a cause. So Indians should go out..see the world..gain great experience..come back to India and fight a new kind of freedom movement to uplift the conditions of masses.

    Here are two choices for anyone that thinks of her/his motherland.

    1. Keep praising the beauty of our motherland
    2. Think about her ill-health and her tomorrow's state

    I would focus on 2 because No.1 is always there in one's heart. A person loving her sincerely, would think more on point 2(and thats what we 3 of us are worried about and discussing). US example was to underline my statement that the treatment we give and get in other countries may be a lot better than what we get in India

    Thats my point and people have all the rights to disagree.
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  • I am currently in the US and have serious plans of moving back by the end of next year. Munish - my thoughts resonate with a lot of things you said in your posts. I strongly believe that you have to be a part of the change you want to bring about. I had mixed feelings on my last visit to India. Progress is clearly visible on certain fronts, and I applaude my Indian people and the government too for this progress (comeon folks - I know that there are some really serious problems with the government, but let's at least appreciate efforts of a select few who are trying to bring about a difference from within the government - but that's not the discussion here, so on that later).

    There are certain aspects of our society that we never discuss, but I believe are truly detrimental to our progress. For instance - we Indians have become less tolerant about the other side's views over a period of time. Examples are where Shiv Sena beats up a north Indian migrant in Mumbai (and this is a Marathi person speaking), or Ram Sena beating up women in a Bangalore pub. In a democracy, we have rights to protest but, such protests have to be peaceful in nature. It has become very common to see brawls on streets of Indian cities when there are minor accidents. I don't see such things too often on American streets. People just call their respective insurance companies and wait for cops to arrive. I know I may get red dots for saying this - but sometimes I feel like we are not even a civilized society. Couples are murdered for the sake of caste, poor people's kidneys are stolen and what not. Even though rising prices of non-tradeable good is a serious problems, I personally think that's the least of our problems in the long term.

    Anyway, enough of blabbering. When I am back in India I really hope to collaborate with rational people like Munish and bring about a difference. Just reiterating what Munish said earlier, YOU HAVE TO BE PART OF A SYSTEM TO CHANGE IT.

    PS: It's funny how this discussion on recession turned into a discussion on the India story :-)
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