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Indian Stock Advice Trading Strategies Trends Market Predictions & Regulations

Last updated: 14 hours ago
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  • Re : Indian Stock Advice Trading Strategies Trends Market Predictions & Regulations

    Originally posted by ThePunjabi
    Any thoughts about short term, i.e. tomorrow, day after tomorrow, next week etc.?

    To me it's looking like start of a 1998 style meltdown. 1998 story started in May with a spike in bond yields for US and German bond yields. By September-October 1998 a historic crash in all asset markets including equities was on. Those who are too young to remember 1998 may read 'When genius failed' by Roger Lewenstein.

    With German bond yields rising from 0.06% to 0.61% in just 2-3 weeks and people complaining about lack of liquidity in US 10 year bonds that are supposed to be most liquid asset in the world, this is looking like another 1998 in the making.
    markets is about earnings & liquidity. Ultimately earnings (or visibility of earning) have to be there to support valuation.

    ... Presently some amount of flight of foreign capital was visible from Indian equity towards Global Commodities (CRUDE) .... maybe smart money is sensing that crude may have bottomed out.

    Keep an eye on commodity prices & Currency Prices & FII figures in Indian stockmarkets.
    Last edited May 6 2015, 11:41 PM.

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    • Re : Indian Stock Advice Trading Strategies Trends Market Predictions & Regulations

      Originally posted by ThePunjabi
      Any thoughts about short term, i.e. tomorrow, day after tomorrow, next week etc.?

      To me it's looking like start of a 1998 style meltdown. 1998 story started in May with a spike in bond yields for US and German bond yields. By September-October 1998 a historic crash in all asset markets including equities was on. Those who are too young to remember 1998 may read 'When genius failed' by Roger Lewenstein.

      With German bond yields rising from 0.06% to 0.61% in just 2-3 weeks and people complaining about lack of liquidity in US 10 year bonds that are supposed to be most liquid asset in the world, this is looking like another 1998 in the making.
      Market oversold expect a deadcat bounce.
      In next 2 3 days.

      Rohit

      Never trade on free tips

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      • Re : Indian Stock Advice Trading Strategies Trends Market Predictions & Regulations

        Originally posted by Manoj2012 View Post
        markets is about earnings & liquidity. Ultimately earnings (or visibility of earning) have to be there to support valuation.

        ... Presently some amount of flight of foreign capital was visible from Indian equity towards Global Commodities (CRUDE) .... maybe smart money is sensing that crude may have bottomed out.

        Keep an eye on commodity prices & Currency Prices & FII figures in Indian stockmarkets.
        TODAY-

        FII sold -1699.6 Crores in Cash Market -1924.59 Crores in Index Futures & -796.71 in Index Options .... bought 1832.18 Crores in Stock Futures.


        FIIs dump more than Rs 9,000 crore of equities in nine sessions | Business Standard News

        FIIs dump more than Rs 9,000 crore of equities in nine sessions
        At 1245 hours, the Sensex slipped 2.3% at 26,815; the index has fallen 3.8% or 1,075 points from 27,890 on April 22.
        SI Reporter | Mumbai May 6, 2015 Last Updated at 12:45 IST

        Foreign institutional investors (FIIs), the main driver of the equity markets, have sold more than Rs 9,000 crore worth of equities in the last nine trading sessions.

        Net investments by foreign investors in the equity market were Rs 8,551 crore ($ 1.35 billion) from April 22 to May 4, according to depository data. On May 5, the overseas investors sold shares worth an additional Rs 757 crore, as per stock exchange provisional data.

        The FIIs were net sellers in Indian shares to the tune of Rs 3,018 crore ($474.7 million) on May 4, the biggest outflow since July 2, according to exchange data released yesterday. The FIIs figures for May 4 also included the data for April 30.

        At 1245 hours, the BSE Sensex slipped 2.3% or 625 points at 26,815, and has fallen 3.8% or 1,075 points from 27,890 on April 22.

        Meanwhile, since April 15, barring the big net inflows of Rs 16,353 crore on April 21 on account of FIIs buying Daiichi Sankyo’s 8.9% stake in Sun , the FIIs have been net sellers on the other 13 days.

        The FIIs sold Indian equities amounting to a net Rs 11,717 crore over the last 14 trading sessions, excluding the investment linked to Sun .

        During the period, the benchmark index has fallen 7.7% or 2,229 points from 29,044 on April 13. Among individual stocks from the 30-share Sensex, Sun , Wipro, Infosys, Dr Reddy’s Laboratories, Larsen & Toubro, HDFC and Hero MotoCorp have fallen more than 10% each.


        Date Net outflow*
        22 Apr,2015 -853.18
        23 Apr,2015 -84.75
        24 Apr,2015 -722.32
        27 Apr,2015 -1600.54
        28 Apr,2015 -1519.35
        29 Apr,2015 -752.86
        04 May,2015 -3018.18
        05 May,2015 -756.52

        *Net outflow in Rs crore
        Source: NSDL, BSE

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        • Re : Indian Stock Advice Trading Strategies Trends Market Predictions & Regulations

          Today (06th May 2015) at around 9:41 some big fii sold 15 lakh nifty in one single order...

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          • Re : Indian Stock Advice Trading Strategies Trends Market Predictions & Regulations

            Punjabi 1998 is unlikely. Rate hikes have been threatened by Fed for 2 years. There is no surprise there. That wont be tipping.

            Bund also is unlikely to trip when ECB QE is ongoing.

            I have only one worry. China. The money from India is heading for China Russia and commodities including oil. It is a run up without fundamentals. They all will come down hard within 6 months.

            Indian markets were overbought. Now they have been oversold. That is all.

            Good buying opportunity. I bought today after 500 point fall but alas it went down another 200 from there.

            I will be buying into every correction.

            I agree with Rohit that equities will go nowhere till Diwali.

            Till then fishing time. Cement dump seems round the corner. Hope Ramco falls too so I can buy.

            I will be buying tomorrow too.
            Last edited May 7 2015, 01:02 AM.
            Venky (Please read watch a or before posting)

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            • Re : Indian Stock Advice Trading Strategies Trends Market Predictions & Regulations

              Originally posted by rohit_warren View Post
              Market oversold expect a deadcat bounce.
              In next 2 3 days.

              Rohit

              Never trade on free tips
              DOW dropped for second consecutive day, notable drops. Guessing Nifty willl drop more before any rebounce.

              it may break 8000 tomorrow. Crude is also inching towards $70 PB not a good news for India.

              Comment


              • Re : Indian Stock Advice Trading Strategies Trends Market Predictions & Regulations

                Massacre in the markets?

                Originally posted by ashish18 View Post
                What could be repercussions if out of the blue, US suddenly reports a 0% GDP growth ?
                Same old story of fed stimulus or something else ?
                GDP growth in Q1 is officially at 0.2%; thats practically 0.

                If we take out inventory buildup GDP growth comes in at -2.5% (thats minus 2.5%).

                So coming quarters will show that as end consumer sales has clearly tanked. Future quarters will accommodate for this buildup with weaker production.

                With 6th closing we have broken the neckline of the H&S pattern, though by a little. If this is correct then we should see a decline to around 7650. But there is still a test of this breaking and we may yet stay above the neckline.

                Btw Rohit you mentioned we would be in a range. What do you think is the range going to be broadly.

                I'm getting the feeling that we may be in for substantial volatility as each month the volatility is only increasing.

                Reasons could be the collapse in US "recovery", European Bond yields going up indicating fear of Greek contagion and Chinese stock market disconnecting from their economic conditions which could reverse suddenly. Basically global economy is almost in a coma while stocks are at all-time highs which will not last long as margin debt in stocks is at all-time highs and when markets stagnate or decline for a while this will reverse resulting in major selloffs.

                We can see the Dow trying repeatedly to break the 18000-18200 levels and finding severe resistance.

                May is going to be very interesting and one should have shorts handy even though we have already fallen around 1000 points on the Nifty already.

                cheers

                Comment


                • Re : Indian Stock Advice Trading Strategies Trends Market Predictions & Regulations

                  5 reasons behind Sensex's over 700-point slip - The Economic Times

                  High-speed traders hasten market slide, add to edginess - The Economic Times

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                  • Re : Indian Stock Advice Trading Strategies Trends Market Predictions & Regulations

                    High-speed traders, better known as algo traders whose dealings are driven by dynamic software programs, deepened the slide in a market that was already edgy. As the market fell on Wednesday, algorithmic trading programs triggered further selling.


                    According to Bloomberg data, four large orders in Nifty May futures, ranging between 7,000 and 39,000 contracts, were traded between 9:41am and 9:53am. The deals were worth Rs 1,470 crore. This accentuated the correction in equity indices.

                    The largest contract comprised of 38,889 Nifty May futures contracts traded at 9:41 am, having a deal size of aroundRs 800 crore. Given that the Nifty futures have a lot size of 25, these four deals amounted to 17.87 lakh Nifty shares. Traders believe that these orders largely came from algo traders.

                    Algorithmic trading is a programmed trading method, in which the computer executes the pre-programmed trading instructions, accounting for a variety of variables such as timing, price and volume. Once the fall in Nifty breached some of the critical support levels, it generated heavy sell orders from algo traders. Almost 22% of total orders in derivative market are from algo trades.

                    Wednesday gathered momentum as Nifty continued to decline even after breaching all three critical support levels. First, Nifty dropped below the crucial 200-day moving average. Second, the index slipped below Tuesday's closing levels of 8,280. Lastly, Nifty breached the expiry day level of 8,181.

                    "Nifty dropped below the three important pivot points. This led to multiplier effect on the fall of Nifty and it generated several sell orders from algo traders," said Nilesh Dedhia, founder of NTD Trading.

                    The 'pyramid' investment strategy by algo traders adds to the intensity whenever akey stock index level is breached.

                    Consider this: If an algo trader has devised a strategy to sell Nifty if it dips to 8,300, the program will aggressively double- or triple-up the bet if certain other levels below it are breached. Aggressive bearish bets by the algo traders further pulled down the market on Wednesday. The key objective of algo traders is to make absolute returns rather than percentage returns. This investment philosophy is quite contrary to the traditional manual trader — who tries to average their position by buying stocks when the market dips.

                    Read more at:
                    High-speed traders hasten market slide, add to edginess - The Economic Times

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                    • Re : Indian Stock Advice Trading Strategies Trends Market Predictions & Regulations

                      reason to wonder...

                      There Have Been Some Big, Mysterious Moves in Markets Lately - Bloomberg Business

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