But, I only provide recommendations and not stock or trading ideas, I may provide a good general view point, to act on that is your own take.

My experience - have witnessed 3 boom and bust cycles - right from Harshad Mehta's days in 1993...and my father has had an experience of 30 years into the market...
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  • Originally Posted by toocool


    i have not been a banknifty follower but started watching it recently and i think its very bearish as of now





    whenever i have seen 20 ema so downward sloping , and if and when the scrip has returned to test it and failed to remain there , it has always been very bearish , just look at the sharp slope of 20 ema towards down , its not a good sign , that too on a weekly chart ,compare it with earlier instance in banknifty itself ,the 20 ema slope was already so down and when price went to test that , sharp fall happened afterwards

    it means markets looks very tough times ahead and the worst may not be over yet , including nifty and sensex

    i am short in nifty Futures @6000 ,looking to add too


    inspite of this post and its meaning , i have something new to share and contrary to this post at this moment





    this is guppy ema's plotted on nifty monthly and as you can see , markets gone only once below ema's , in 2008 , the previous instances were just starting of the chart so i will not include them in my analysis .

    a picture is worth a thousands of words .

    just look at the space between the ema's , its almost even in recent times and markets gone 2 times(december 2011 and july 2013) to test those ema's and successfully bounced from there . the spaces between the ema's and there upward march has not been tampered yet , the elections are quite nearer than ever only 6-7 months away at max? and this is monthly chart , i do not think markets are going to go much down now , infact markets are poised to make new life time highs in coming months .

    i am very strong believer of charts and only market sentiment driving the markets theory

    at this point i do not even see 5700 being taken out easily , its a monthly chart so anything big change will not be reflected soon so we have to wait and see what happens next , i will be worried a bit only below 5700 now , otherwise i am a bull

    i am long @5853 and 5944 , 100% long and carried longs home
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  • Wockhardt

    Originally Posted by toocool
    Are you serious?

    You play it by staying away from it :p


    Bought some at lower circuit on Friday @448.30, after it went down for six consecutive days, at lower circuit !

    It has hit upper circuit today, and hopefully will again hit upper circuit tomorrow.

    Plan was to double my investment on each lower circuit so that when it bounces back, I am in positive by the second day. It didnt fall any further ... so i didnt get a chance to buy more.

    One more stock is continuously hitting lower circuit.... Era Infa Engineering ... I am sure when it bounces back, it will keep on hitting the upper circuit for 2-3 sessions minimum... But do not know when it will stop hitting the lower circuit... :D

    Maybe I should look closely at volumes and once volumes build up, I can double my investment on each circuit ... Lets say I start with 100 shares, 2nd day 200, 3rd day 400 4th day 800, n so on ???

    Or on every 10% dip, double my investment ... ???

    Free Fall has started from Sept 23rd 139.00, daily hitting lower circuit , Currently @90.00 ??

    What should be a good time to enter ??
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  • Originally Posted by zorin111
    Bought some at lower circuit on Friday @448.30, after it went down for six consecutive days, at lower circuit !

    It has hit upper circuit today, and hopefully will again hit upper circuit tomorrow.

    Plan was to double my investment on each lower circuit so that when it bounces back, I am in positive by the second day. It didnt fall any further ... so i didnt get a chance to buy more.

    One more stock is continuously hitting lower circuit.... Era Infa Engineering ... I am sure when it bounces back, it will keep on hitting the upper circuit for 2-3 sessions minimum... But do not know when it will stop hitting the lower circuit... :D

    Maybe I should look closely at volumes and once volumes build up, I can double my investment on each circuit ... Lets say I start with 100 shares, 2nd day 200, 3rd day 400 4th day 800, n so on ???

    Or on every 10% dip, double my investment ... ???

    Free Fall has started from Sept 23rd 139.00, daily hitting lower circuit , Currently @90.00 ??

    What should be a good time to enter ??


    Zorin brother,
    I don't think anyone here has guts to play with fire like you. Probably, rather than asking questions, you should be giving your views on when to pick and throw these bombs :)
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  • Was crunching some numbers over the weekend to see how the Indian govt finances look over now as compared to 1991 when the economy was opened up. Things have NOT improved one bit. Pension and social welfare spending has gone thru the roof.

    Will stick with me original assessment that the bubble will India after 4-5 yrs

    Here are the numbers nanafadnavis.blogspot.com
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  • Exposure to $100 billion unhedged foreign loans: How deep a trouble is India Inc in? - The Economic Times

    Here are the sectors and companies with foreign borrowings that have been hit the most by the rupee’s fall, as well as the ones that have gained from it.
    Here are the sectors and companies with foreign borrowings that have been hit the most by the rupee’s fall, as well as the ones that have gained from it.
    Indian companies have not had it easy over the past few years. A weak demand environment, rising input costs and regulatory hurdles have brought down corporate profitability.

    Faced with a liquidity crunch and high cost of borrowing at home, a large number of companies decided to go abroad for cheaper loans. With the government raising the cap for overseas borrowing, these companies did not hesitate to load up on cheap foreign currency-denominated debt in the form of external commercial borrowing (ECB) and foreign currency convertible bonds (FCCB) to fund their activities.

    Now, this overseas borrowing binge is set to return to haunt the corporates. With the rupee sliding in value, these so-called cheap loans have turned prohibitively expensive. Let us consider the companies that have been burdened by foreign debt and gauge the impact of the rupee's fall on their books.

    Forex loans

    According to a study by CrisilBSE -0.53 %, Indian companies hold nearly $200 billion worth of loans in foreign currency. Only half of this debt has been hedged, which means that India Inc is exposed to currency fluctuations in $100 billion worth of foreign loans.

    If the rupee continues to be weak, the companies will have to shell out more rupees for the same amount of dollars raised abroad. This means that the interest outgo will go up sharply. Typically, firms hedge the currency exposure up to one year, but even those with hedged positions will have to bear a higher cost for rolling over their positions.

    So far, these companies have managed to roll over their foreign borrowings owing to the easy liquidity conditions maintained by the US Federal Reserve. However, with the imminent threat of tapering of the Fed's liquidity stance, the resulting drying up of the inbound money may put further pressure on the rupee and added burden on Indian companies to pay the foreign debt. A sizeable portion of this is set to mature by the end of the current fiscal year, which poses a big problem for corporates.

    Dipen Shah, Kotak Securities, says, "The rupee depreciation has made foreign debt costlier by 10-15 per cent, which is a big problem considering that the repayment capability continues to be at a low for the Indian companies."

    It is a double whammy for the companies that also import raw material from abroad, and have no natural hedges in terms of foreign revenue or assets. The rupee's depreciation will result in higher input costs as well as higher spend on the interest payment for foreign loans.

    Says Shah: "Any firm that imports raw material, apart from carrying a high foreign debt burden, will find the going tough. It will not be easy for them to pass on the costs to consumers."
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  • Last chart was posted on 26 Sep with title, Nifty_last_leg. At that time there were 2 options. Go down straightaway or rally up one more time before going down.

    As chart shows, there was a little dip to 5700 and then a rally to 5950. You will notice that the resistance line at 5950 saw Nifty bounce down, but it also took support between 200 DMA at 5835 and 100 DMA at 5815 and returned back to 5906 yesterday.

    Still think this is the last leg up and it might not even rise back to the 6140 levels reached the day RR took over and crashed punters hopes. You will notice that MACD crossover has happened and not too often does it cross back.

    MAybe Infy results on 11 Oct may be a significant data point. If it is above expectation we may yet see a rally going above 6100, but as expected, if results are dull, we could see Nifty go back down below 5500 and as far as 5100 again.

    There is also the option that, since results season is on, Nifty will remain range-bound till all major results are announced and then decide which way to move, which could mean another 10-12 days of tight range-bound movement with some spikes in both directions.

    The other big one is the Debt Ceiling issue in the US. Yesterday the (Republican) House Speaker had said there is no way he would allow a default. But today, he clearly stated that there would be no "clean" raise (meaning without other measures to cut spending being included). With Obama saying "not negotiation", there is also the possibility that we may be too close to 17 Oct and despite last-minute action, there could be a Budget Emergency in the US. Markets are already starting to get weak on this and an emergency could be the Big One to take down our market as well.

    Sentiment is important but Election sentiment is far away (elections have not even been announced). Immediate concerns are liquidity in markets and corporate performance.

    cheers
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  • Wockhardt

    Originally Posted by ashish18
    Zorin brother,
    I don't think anyone here has guts to play with fire like you. Probably, rather than asking questions, you should be giving your views on when to pick and throw these bombs :)


    Haha

    It has again hit the upper circuit today. 2nd day today !

    Tomorrow I plan to exit 50%, and hold onto balance 50% for the next day... Lets C

    Era Infra was again on lower circuit today. Waiting for numbers to build up ... Once the numbers reach the critical mass, reverse would automatically happen. And it would continue for 3-6 sessions depending upon the severeness of the fall...

    I am not touching this stock till it reaches 60... Lets C
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  • Originally Posted by zorin111
    Haha

    It has again hit the upper circuit today. 2nd day today !

    Tomorrow I plan to exit 50%, and hold onto balance 50% for the next day... Lets C

    Era Infra was again on lower circuit today. Waiting for numbers to build up ... Once the numbers reach the critical mass, reverse would automatically happen. And it would continue for 3-6 sessions depending upon the severeness of the fall...

    I am not touching this stock till it reaches 60... Lets C


    I have sold off 100% today itself as the counter has not seen a steady climb but seen a lot of resistance at various levels... So not sure of its strength now... It could again go into a nosedive anytime ... (though will hover for 2-4 sessions at similar valuations to build up volumes before hitting either of the circuits )

    Era infra again at lower circuit of with a volume just above 1 k shares now.
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  • Hope remember techmahindra hit 1485
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  • Hholding bharti airtel also and techmahindra
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  • Originally Posted by surya2089
    Hholding bharti airtel also and techmahindra


    congrates bro...
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  • Nifty last legs update

    Continuing with the medium term market direction prognosis, we are at a critical junction today ...

    Infy results are out tomorrow. Markets are pumped up and predicting stronger than earlier projected results and so Infy is now over 3100 and perhaps poised to either slump down sharply (if results don't reflect current sentiment) or rally further a bit if it is as per sentiment.

    I'm staying away from Infy 2-way trade because the premiums are skyhigh and therefore we need to see at least 250 point swing in Infy before we can see a meaningful profit. Therefore the people taking strangles by selling 2700 puts and 3400 calls will probably make money as Infy may not breach these levels. Buying strangles/straddles at high premiums is a pure gamble with limited upside and lots of downside. So no Infy results trade this time. Will watch fireworks from sidelines.

    On the Nifty chart, we are again close to the upper Bollinger, Upper Resistance of the larger downward channel and MACD is weak and showing that we may be about to decline substantially.

    An important indicator is complacency where almost every analyst is confident that downside cannot be more than 5700 and recent CAD announcement, etc is construed as we are now definitely "turning around".

    But the Debt Ceiling crisispoint is only 4 working days away and unless the weekend is used once again to crash a settlement, early next week markets all over the world will start a panicky slide in anticipation of .... nobody knows what! :)

    If you look at the weekly chart (second one), I've connected the Nov 2010 peak of 6335 to recent 6230 peak and this finds resistance around 6185 levels (if we cross 6075 level tomorrow). MACD is about to go negative from zero level and RSI is at the 50% line and tturning down. This is a potentially powerful starting pattern and if the downturn actually starts, it could be a powerful move downwards. Wonder what kind of event could trigger that off? The Debt Ceiling default?!

    If my reading is correct, the Nifty is about to take the dive into a 1-1.5 month slide down to the low 5000s.

    Let us see.

    cheers
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  • Originally Posted by wiseman


    Infy results are out tomorrow. Markets are pumped up and predicting stronger than earlier projected results and so Infy is now over 3100 and perhaps poised to either slump down sharply (if results don't reflect current sentiment) or rally further a bit if it is as per sentiment.

    I'm staying away from Infy 2-way trade because the premiums are skyhigh and therefore we need to see at least 250 point swing in Infy before we can see a meaningful profit. Therefore the people taking strangles by selling 2700 puts and 3400 calls will probably make money as Infy may not breach these levels. Buying strangles/straddles at high premiums is a pure gamble with limited upside and lots of downside. So no Infy results trade this time. Will watch fireworks from sidelines.


    Infosys will beat market expectations - profit growth will be more than revenue growth. Revenue guidance will be increased and hoping that dividend is also increased. Its cash would have generated awesome returns. Going long on Infosys - bought call options.
    Hoping NRN does a interview tomorrow - its always a treat to watch him turn -ves into +ves




    But the Debt Ceiling crisispoint is only 4 working days away and unless the weekend is used once again to crash a settlement, early next week markets all over the world will start a panicky slide in anticipation of .... nobody knows what! :)



    Republicans are more interested in the govt shutdown fight than the debt ceiling fight. Debt ceiling is quite irrelevant as US Fed is buying all the US deficit by printing new money - this years deficits will be less than the 85 billion $ the US Fed is printing every month.

    News just coming in that the debt ceiling will be increased for a temp period.
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  • The dive just got postponed

    Originally Posted by herohiralal
    Infosys will beat market expectations - profit growth will be more than revenue growth. Revenue guidance will be increased and hoping that dividend is also increased. Its cash would have generated awesome returns. Going long on Infosys - bought call options.
    Hoping NRN does a interview tomorrow - its always a treat to watch him turn -ves into +ves




    Republicans are more interested in the govt shutdown fight than the debt ceiling fight. Debt ceiling is quite irrelevant as US Fed is buying all the US deficit by printing new money - this years deficits will be less than the 85 billion $ the US Fed is printing every month.

    News just coming in that the debt ceiling will be increased for a temp period.


    Switched on the TV around 12 am and was surprised to see Nasdaq up 70 points and Dow 250 points or so.

    The Republicans have proposed a 6 week of debt raising so that they can continue this fight and surrender AGAIN after 6 weeks. Everyone is ecstatic and so is the market.

    Don't yet know about Infy (whether there is inside info about their profits being up etc) but markets tomorrow should jump at least 100 points on the Nifty on the basis of CAD reduction, Janet Yellen becoming next FED chief (QE++) and the US postponing the inevitable till early Dec. What would they do then? Because Obama is now even more confident that he can say No! to Negotiations on Obamacare defunding and the Republicans will again chicken out.

    Soon US will become single party system as the GOP is becoming the laughing stock of the world!!! :)

    cheers
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  • Originally Posted by herohiralal
    Infosys will beat market expectations - profit growth will be more than revenue growth. Revenue guidance will be increased and hoping that dividend is also increased. Its cash would have generated awesome returns. Going long on Infosys - bought call options.
    Hoping NRN does a interview tomorrow - its always a treat to watch him turn -ves into +ves




    Republicans are more interested in the govt shutdown fight than the debt ceiling fight. Debt ceiling is quite irrelevant as US Fed is buying all the US deficit by printing new money - this years deficits will be less than the 85 billion $ the US Fed is printing every month.

    News just coming in that the debt ceiling will be increased for a temp period.


    Less deficit by printing money ? But till when ? Finally the debt is still ballooning.
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