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Mathematics on Pricing of Land

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Mathematics on Pricing of Land

Last updated: August 5 2009
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  • #91

    #91

    Re : Mathematics on Pricing of Land

    Originally posted by contra View Post
    A lot of average, below average good for nothing people got into IT industry when jobs were easily available for taking. Many well deserving, hard working candidates particularly those coming from middle class/ lower middle class families, rural areas, villages face many hurdles in IT industry right from the start during job interviews, promotions, appraisals, onsite openings etc.

    So if about 30% useless unbillable project managers, business analysts, Ivy league sweet talking consultants, urban educated hi-fi rich/upper class freshers and such crazy people are laid off nothing will happen to real estate or IT industry.

    There will still be 60% hardworking technical people taking moderate income, mostly working at offshore (except a few who could conquer this system and go onsite) who will stay and keep earning their salaries. They will still take rented homes or buy own flats (both decisions are positive for real estate). FULL STOP
    You hit the nail on the head.

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    • #92

      #92

      Re : Mathematics on Pricing of Land

      Thats true IT in India is getting Matured only the better & best persons can survive. We need Technical Managers in India not the Project Managers to check the timesheets alone anymore, he should have some knowledge about the project.

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      • #93

        #93

        Re : Mathematics on Pricing of Land

        Nope!

        Originally posted by Natarajg007 View Post
        IT guys are over paid, especially in the last few years. So if they have a fear of job loss who cares. If even 20% of them lose jobs so what?
        Did I answer your question?

        Agreed IT largely overpaid due to $ rs differential.

        But its psychological.

        Understand one person in ur department gets laid off, WHO & WHEN will be the next on everyones mind. Those unpaid bills -credit card + cars + holiday last yr + life style + etc.

        Four relatives in IT, 2 US + 2 India in resptble position in good company.

        None ready to commit to buy, inspite of attractive properties avble.
        Fear psychosis at work?

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        • #94

          #94

          Re : Mathematics on Pricing of Land

          You hit the nail on the head

          Originally posted by Natarajg007 View Post
          You hit the nail on the head.
          I think higher-end properties do not have fixed rates, it is what high-income peoples are ready to pay.

          So there are properties sold at 40K psft at Malabar hills in Mumbai (an extreme example).
          A similar structure 5-10 km away will fetch 10K psft only!!!

          The expectation of rise in property-rates is also built into existing rate just like stock price.

          It is also demand & supply game. If 20% of I.T workforce rendered job-less with fear-psychosis at work, demand may reduce by 40%.
          Last edited June 8 2009, 09:45 AM.

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          • #95

            #95

            Re : Mathematics on Pricing of Land

            Originally posted by contra View Post
            A lot of average, below average good for nothing people got into IT industry when jobs were easily available for taking. Many well deserving, hard working candidates particularly those coming from middle class/ lower middle class families, rural areas, villages face many hurdles in IT industry right from the start during job interviews, promotions, appraisals, onsite openings etc.

            So if about 30% useless unbillable project managers, business analysts, Ivy league sweet talking consultants, urban educated hi-fi rich/upper class freshers and such crazy people are laid off nothing will happen to real estate or IT industry.

            There will still be 60% hardworking technical people taking moderate income, mostly working at offshore (except a few who could conquer this system and go onsite) who will stay and keep earning their salaries. They will still take rented homes or buy own flats (both decisions are positive for real estate). FULL STOP
            Excellent point about unbillable/useless IT consultants.

            But if 40% of useless/unbillable IT staff lose job, doesn't mean losing 40% of potential RE buyers? Will this do good or bad for RE?
            Last edited June 9 2009, 01:06 AM.

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            • #96

              #96

              Re : Mathematics on Pricing of Land

              Originally posted by hitmady View Post
              I think higher-end properties do not have fixed rates, it is what high-income peoples are ready to pay.

              So there are properties sold at 40K psft at Malabar hills in Mumbai (an extreme example).
              A similar structure 5-10 km away will fetch 10K psft only!!!

              The expectation of rise in property-rates is also built into existing rate just like stock price.

              It is also demand & supply game. If 20% of I.T workforce rendered job-less with fear-psychosis at work, demand may reduce by 40%.
              Many have been hoping that this fear psychosis will happen and prices will fall! Unfortunately the fear psychosis is just about to begin when people see prices moving up and desperately start buying once more sending prices to dizzy heights in RE. A few IT guys dont make much difference!

              Comment

              • #97

                #97

                Re : Mathematics on Pricing of Land

                Originally posted by Natarajg007 View Post
                Many have been hoping that this fear psychosis will happen and prices will fall! Unfortunately the fear psychosis is just about to begin when people see prices moving up and desperately start buying once more sending prices to dizzy heights in RE. A few IT guys dont make much difference!
                I know RE price

                Comment

                • #98

                  #98

                  Re : Mathematics on Pricing of Land

                  With every passing day good news is trickling in. The problem with investors is that they are so pessimistic that they assume a fall will continue for ever. Even US reality is perking up with Housing starts showing healthy improvements. In India and in Chennai in particular where RE price almost never even tapered off any bit, I think a big gold rush has begun. Many buyers are trying to pick up at cheaper prices but wiser landlords aint selling. This trickle is going to become a flood very soon and in the next few months our pessimists are growing to cry over spilt milk.
                  It is better to be late than never to do a thing. You missed buying in 2003, you want to miss again in 2009?

                  Comment

                  • #99

                    #99

                    Re : Mathematics on Pricing of Land

                    Sorry folks! This is another example of spin

                    Originally posted by Natarajg007 View Post
                    With every passing day good news is trickling in. The problem with investors is that they are so pessimistic that they assume a fall will continue for ever. Even US reality is perking up with Housing starts showing healthy improvements. In India and in Chennai in particular where RE price almost never even tapered off any bit, I think a big gold rush has begun. Many buyers are trying to pick up at cheaper prices but wiser landlords aint selling. This trickle is going to become a flood very soon and in the next few months our pessimists are growing to cry over spilt milk.
                    It is better to be late than never to do a thing. You missed buying in 2003, you want to miss again in 2009?

                    Folks,

                    With every passing day, parties with a vested interest (like the Govt and speculators stuck with properties bought at high prices) are creating a spin that all is well, the bottom is in and it will be a wild bull market all over again.

                    Fact is that unless we get to the totally insane levels of debt creation like in the 2007/08 period, prices have no reason to go above previous peaks. So, it has to be a strong spin about the coming bull market.

                    The real economy, in the meanwhile has simply taken a break from falling hard for a whole year. Once this breather is over, the fall starts all over again, once the spin gets seen as just that - spin! Then it is DeJaVu all over again.

                    As I'd said only 2 weeks back, 15580 on the sensx would be the end of this bear market rally in all probability. As this market is showing (stock markets are always leading indicators of things to come in the underlying economy), prices have gotten far ahead of the fundamental performance of companies. And this time, just to prive Nats wrong, I stated this before the event when the market was going up. Since then I have been short (and obviously you know who is making the moolah hand over fist! . I believe we will reach 13400 sensx levels in the near future and then we will see!

                    Our markets are stuck in a range for a long time to come with fairly weak growth in India and much worse elsewhere. If things get much worse in the USA (and I for one believe they will) before they get better, do not leave out the possibility of our markets revisiting the bottom of 8000 and even breaking it downwards. At that time, sentiment will be much weaker, the savings of people will be much thinner and ability and willingness of people to buy at any price will be much lower. This demand by much weaker buyers - to lower prices to an affordable level without recourse to large amounts of debt - will see RE prices come down significantly for a while. By then builders too will be in a serious quandary because of their huge debt, inventory and weaker ability to sustain themselves in business.

                    This situation is surely coming and I believe it will be sometime in the 2010-11 period. I will wait till then!!!

                    If you missed in 2003/04, then you will surely want to skip in 2009, but not miss the buying opportunity in 2010/11!!!

                    cheers
                    Last edited June 17 2009, 09:03 PM.

                    Comment


                    • Re : Mathematics on Pricing of Land

                      Originally posted by wiseman View Post
                      Folks,

                      With every passing day, parties with a vested interest (like the Govt and speculators stuck with properties bought at high prices) are creating a spin that all is well, the bottom is in and it will be a wild bull market all over again.

                      Fact is that unless we get to the totally insane levels of debt creation like in the 2007/08 period, prices have no reason to go above previous peaks. So, it has to be a strong spin about the coming bull market.

                      The real economy, in the meanwhile has simply taken a break from falling hard for a whole year. Once this breather is over, the fall starts all over again, once the spin gets seen as just that - spin! Then it is DeJaVu all over again.

                      As I'd said only 2 weeks back, 15580 on the sensx would be the end of this bear market rally in all probability. As this market is showing (stock markets are always leading indicators of things to come in the underlying economy), prices have gotten far ahead of the fundamental performance of companies. And this time, just to prive Nats wrong, I stated this before the event when the market was going up. Since then I have been short (and obviously you know who is making the moolah hand over fist! . I believe we will reach 13400 sensx levels in the near future and then we will see!

                      Our markets are stuck in a range for a long time to come with fairly weak growth in India and much worse elsewhere. If things get much worse in the USA (and I for one believe they will) before they get better, do not leave out the possibility of our markets revisiting the bottom of 8000 and even breaking it downwards. At that time, sentiment will be much weaker, the savings of people will be much thinner and ability and willingness of people to buy at any price will be much lower. This demand by much weaker buyers - to lower prices to an affordable level without recourse to large amounts of debt - will see RE prices come down significantly for a while. By then builders too will be in a serious quandary because of their huge debt, inventory and weaker ability to sustain themselves in business.

                      This situation is surely coming and I believe it will be sometime in the 2010-11 period. I will wait till then!!!

                      If you missed in 2003/04, then you will surely want to skip in 2009, but not miss the buying opportunity in 2010/11!!!

                      cheers
                      Nice one! LOL! Wisey states
                      1. Govt has vested interest! So if govt wants growth our Wisey wants India to collapse. So once more the NRI coterie game of self aggrandisement is exposed.
                      2. Sensx falling for 2 days and our friend is talking about 8000. Markets correct. The game is not over yet. I would expect even 3300 on Nifty (Wisey can translate into Sen terms). That does not mean it is over. Just that it will consolidate and shoot up.
                      Wisey, please try to trade then you will know what markets are all about. Just once try something before writing here. We will be blessed then!

                      Comment

                      Tags: mathematics
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