Many on this board including the so called Wise and also the Sethus to Jadhavs have a problem of my pricing on land. Just 2 minutes ago I called up a builder in Urapakkam. He is selling a flat. This is not on the better side of the Urapakkam and is quite some distance from the Railway station....1.5km. I know there are no shops on this side either and development is tardy. He was quoting a price of 2600psft on the advt posted in Oct 2008. On phone he quotes 2400psft. I said that was high. His logic...land price is 30L per ground! and it increases to 35L per ground if you are a bit closer. Then he says..."saar price of construction is also to be taken na... and he says 1K psft".
Let us come to the bare mathematics. Let us assume he wont build 2 times the land area even though that is possible in todays new Master plan but uses only 1.5 as FSI.
So it works out like this (all figures in rupees).
Cost of land = 30L/2400sft = 1250psft
Cost of land needed per sqft of building at 1.5 FSI = 1250/1.5= 833psft
Cost of construction = 1000 psft
So net cost incurred is 1000+833=1833psft.
Giving him a Fair margin of 200 rupees profit psft we can assume that 2033 is a fair price but in reality he charges 2400. So he yet has a Safety Bumper margin of 2400/2033= 18% over an above his fair profit margin. Now remember he would most likely have got a deal with the land owner where he will repay the landowner over period of time. So the builder's investment is zero on the land. Next he constructs using the buyer's money. Nowadays that is where he might be chewed a bit, since bookings are not fast enough. So he has to pay that interest portion for his construction activity.
Finally I assumed FSI=1.5. Most builders easily take this number to 1.8 and they also price car parking etc as separate. So if u use 1.8 in the argument and add 1.5L for car parking as this builder quotes it will mean his price is about 2600psft and his cost of land is 700psft. So his Safety Bumper margin is
2600-1000-700-200=700psft.
In other words he can yet reduce his price by 700psft and go home with a fair profit of 200psft.
Why am I saying this?
a. As many on this board with almost rudimentary Mathematics knowledge seem to say (rudimentary as in class 3 and no better even if one of those shit colleges gave them a B.E. degree sadly though!) if DLF reduces price by 400psft, it does not mean RE market is crashing. Just that it is stabilising at best and the pinch is felt for the EVER CONNING BUILDERS.
b. Let us assume that 2600psft is the end price and 1.8 FSI. Then if you back calculate (2600-1000(cost of construction)-200(fair profit))=1400 is the cost of land you are actually paying that too at 1.8FSI. So price of land is 1400*1.8=2520psft which translates to 60L per ground. So it is clear that if you have land (like I do) and I just become a builder I will gain 60L-30L=30L for my land. Being fair I try to ask for 45L for such a land and I know on the worst day the biggest Mathematical idiot on this board will buy it for 35L. So why should I sell land? Or why should anyone sell land...Unless he/she is hardup for money!!

In net, the builder in Chennai is minting money like mad, and in recent times his minting has come down. This will mean slightly cheaper flats. However in the process land price wont come down but with more of the buyers becoming SANER (move from Class 3 to Class 7 ... LOL ... Hopefully Wiseman reaches Class 7 soon!), they will prefer to buy land and build homes than flats.

Only when that class also disappears will there be a RE collapse. In Bangalore (I mean proper city...not Whitefield or Devanahalli which is almost same as Chengalpet or Tindivanam in development!), price of land to flat is extremely clean. Builders have clean profit margins and they are able to sell their property much more fairly than in Chennai. Ofcourse the Brigades who try to mint money have got chopped in the process. So Brigade which was quoting fancy prices in Rajaji Nagar has been forced to take a lot of shit, with FSI as high as 4-4.5 while the normal flat in that vicinity having hardly priced any bit lower.

In summary, if you want a flat to live tommorow (not after 2 years like India Bulls is selling in Medavakkam!) then buy it at that fancy price ... after all 2600psft and 2200 psft wont matter much in the long run as u might as well stay in your house today than pay rent. However if you are an INVESTOR and have cleared Class 7 mathematics (not by mugging but by understanding!) then you better buy Land for investment. If you book a flat with a long delivery time and then cry, especially if you are losing your job like that Fidelity guy, then u can use abuses like That HECK of a Fool or Like Jadhav the Bus driver, but in reality you need to improve your brain. So go to the nearest Mutton shop and try to fit that brain into yours! LOL!
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  • Originally Posted by Natarajg007
    You seem have good questions but they dont answer the truth!
    1. Flat builders appear near IT companies and SEZ. Right. However that means that RE as you define is purely flats and that too at remote locations. That unfortunately is not RE. So while in your Bangalore Malleswaram has no IT company worth mentioning price of land there is one of the highest. Tell me why. There are no IT companies in Mylapore, T.Nagar yet it is they are some of the costliest locations. Dont tell me one Satyam that juts out of Chamiers road!!
    2. IT slump and Realestate Companies slump are related. That is because DLF can con only idiotic IT guys. Brigade can sell shit only to IT idiots. However land price has nothing to do with these as I illustrated in 1. So if you want to talk like Wiseman likening price of DLF or Unitech shares with RE then you are mistaken.
    Hope I answered your interesting questions.

    1) I was talking abt flats in whitefield and electronics city.
    Malleshwaram is old bangalore, that area had value long back even before IT came to india.

    2) I give example based on my and my relatives personal experience.
    One of my uncle had bought a flat in Bannegharghatta road for 12 lacs in 1996.
    In 1998 flats were available in same building for 8lacs. He got value for his flat only after 2001-2002. After dot com crash recovery.
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  • Vinay,

    Why are you bringing Banglaore area discussion in chennai area.
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  • Originally Posted by Nataraajg007
    Vinay,

    Why are you bringing Banglaore area discussion in chennai area.

    Why are you using my name and trying to talk stupid Nataraaaaaaaaaaaaj?
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  • Originally Posted by Natarajg007
    Why are you using my name and trying to talk stupid Nataraaaaaaaaaaaaj?


    You are using my name or otherwise?
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  • Originally Posted by vinayprabhu81
    Sorry for late reply, was busy...

    I was talking about marathhalli prices before airport got shifted.

    Even I got a deal for flat behind leela palace for 30lacs, but they had 300% deviation from approved plan. So I rejected.

    Regarding Purvankara and Rohan, in the entire Marathhalli ORR stretch, corporation doesn't provide water, but still builders takes BWSSB charges. Some of my friends are paying hefty amount for water related charges as they get water in tankers.

    In kaggadasapura/CVRaman Nagar I can get flat in the range of 20-25lacs, but what about the roads, night time ladies cant walk alone on those streets. Considering all those facts, the prices are still high as per my opinion.

    Correct me if I am wrong.

    You seem to want the cake and eat it too. 30lac flat near Leela Palace and you crib about deviations. Think of getting a 30lac flat in Madras in Besant Nagar or Anna Nagar! Even with deviation you wont. You will get a 30L flat in Madras only in Urapakkam or Tirunindravur to name a few!
    As for 20-25L in CV Raman nagar that is outright cheap. CV Raman Nagar or Kaggadaspura should be comparable in distance to city centre and in terms of quality of life with Nanganallur or Saligramam or Kottivakkam, but the price is too low. And as for safety of women I bet that is your own concoction. Dont tell me Women are safe in this world anywhere!! So many women walk daily at 10pm on the road to Malleshpalya in the night while they dont do it say in Malleswaram. Does that compare? So many women employees of CTS in Pallikaranai walk to Velachery MRT, and how may do it in T.Nagar, not many more.
    In simple, the deviation and the lack of concern for it in most cases is the only reason flats in Bangalore cost almost half the rate or even lesser than a similar place in Madras. Price of land in Nanganallur and CV Raman nagar are almost the same but flats in Nanganallur are twice that of CV Raman nagar and the reason being FSI and deviation.
    Now I dont think I have to answer your second message on Electronic City and Whitefield. EC is to me not in Bangalore. Whitefield is ubiquitous term, it can be as close as Marathahalli and as far away as Downing street which is literally 10 km from Hoskote.
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  • Originally Posted by Nataraajg007
    You are using my name or otherwise?

    Well for one I existed here before. There were many who were following me. You just created a name close to mine to confuse folks here. You have nothing much to say but to try to defame me or confuse those who write to me. If the mod wants me to write here more often he better rip out your silly id.
    And finally do you know what is realestate? Your statements here seem to be robotic, and if someone said it is costly you say it is cheap and if they talked of Bangalore you ask them why Bangalore. Other than that you are worth not even the toilet tissue roll.
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  • Originally Posted by Natarajg007
    Well for one I existed here before. There were many who were following me. You just created a name close to mine to confuse folks here. You have nothing much to say but to try to defame me or confuse those who write to me. If the mod wants me to write here more often he better rip out your silly id.
    And finally do you know what is realestate? Your statements here seem to be robotic, and if someone said it is costly you say it is cheap and if they talked of Bangalore you ask them why Bangalore. Other than that you are worth not even the toilet tissue roll.

    Incidentally for all the doomsday talkers on this board. Last Saturday I visited AECS layout in Bangalore. In 2002 December I missed buying a property there for 26L (4000sft). That was about 650psft. I saw a land on the same road with a SALE advt board on it. I called the number and the guy who spoke to me said that it was sold just a few days ago and with some prodding said that he asked for 6100psft and got 5900psft.
    Wiseman would do well to visit AECS layout in Kundanahalli (Whitefield area) to find it out for himself. He mentioned that this road has been made into a commercial site. Almost 10 times in exactly 6years. And this place is about 20km from MG Road.
    So those of you who yet believe in the BEAR story, you are most welcome to do so. It is just an obsession of the have nots to imagine that prices are falling. No doubt worthless unapproved lands in far off places and flats built on such silly land quoting exhorbitant prices have fallen. However in the first place only fools will buy such land. So if you buy land at 2km from NH4 around Sriperumbudur and a flat there for 3000psft then if it falls to 2600 that means nothing. Just that number of fools in Chennai have reduced.
    That does not mean that property price in Tiruvanmiyur has reduced from 10000 to 8000. Rather it is moving up to 11000 as an example.
    So Wiseman can write here about bear story, predict bear story in 2020 well maybe he will next write about bears in 4040, but well those who listen to that are fools. Fools who dont know about today, who cant plan for tommorow but want to know about 4040 when they certainly wont exist!
    So much for RE bears on this board.
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  • I think I can take a challenge from the bears here to quote prices in prime locations in Chennai or Bangalore. I will suggest the places, Malleswaram, Indiranagar in Bangalore. Adayar, TNagar in Chennai. I want land price per square feet. If you can price it as low as you claim as a bear, then I will get you a buyer hopefully!
    And let Wiseman sell calls on this if he yet is not bankrupt with Satyam fiasco! LOL!
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  • Incidentally for all the doomsday talkers on this board. Last month I visited AECS layout in Bangalore. In 2002 December I missed buying a property there for 32L (4000sft).. I saw a land on the same road with a SALE advt board on it. I called the number and the guy who spoke to me said that it was sold just a few days ago and with some prodding said that he asked for 4500psft and got 4200psft.

    Wiseman has visted AECS layout in Kundanahalli (Whitefield area) to find it out for himself. He mentioned that this road has been made into a commercial site. He is right. Almost 10 times in exactly 6years. And this place is about 20km from MG Road.
    So those of you who yet believe in the bull story, you are most welcome to do so. It is just an obsession of the have nots to imagine that prices are rising. No doubt even approved lands and flats have fallen. However in the first place only fools will buy such land.. Just that number of fools in Chennai have reduced.


    That means that property price in Tiruvanmiyur has reduced from 10000 to 8000.
    So Wiseman is right to some extent. He can write here about bull story,. Fools who dont know about today, who cant plan for tomorrow
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  • Bangalore or chennai. Fact is same. Prices are falling
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  • Fools, Greater Fools and the greatest fool of all :)

    Originally Posted by Natarajg007
    I think I can take a challenge from the bears here to quote prices in prime locations in Chennai or Bangalore. I will suggest the places, Malleswaram, Indiranagar in Bangalore. Adayar, TNagar in Chennai. I want land price per square feet. If you can price it as low as you claim as a bear, then I will get you a buyer hopefully!
    And let Wiseman sell calls on this if he yet is not bankrupt with Satyam fiasco! LOL!


    There are fools. One can sympathise with them because they know not what they do.

    Then, there are greater fools. They buy when every one else is running scared. One can only pity them!

    Then there is the greatest fool of all. He is the one who talks about missing buying a plot in 2002 and asking for a price today. But mind you, he does not say that he actually bought any land. He acts as though he is a buyer, only to sell some land he is holding (maybe at a loss) to you so that you become the sucker he is now.

    Welcome Nats, the greatest fool of all! :D

    Note: till date he has never admitted to buying anything in the last couple of years. But he keeps goading all you others to buy as if there is no tomorrow. Why? So that he can sell his land and get out! And leave you holding the crap!

    Btw, Nats, I have been short IT for last nearly 2 years. Started going short in Infy around 2400 levels and have only made a lot of money, not lost any. I wish I had shorted Satyam. But sadly for you, you seemed to have forgotten that I've been a bear on the markets for quite some time. So, please tell me, how could I have lost money on this Satyam Fiasco while I've been a bear? :D

    Sometimes, in your efforts to froth at the mouth, you must also pause to use your brains!!! :p ROTFL

    cheers
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  • Herd Mentality In People

    People have herd mentailty they will sell their lands only after substantial fall. wiseman continue your good work. I admire your knowledge. I send your posts thro emails to many people as social service
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  • Originally Posted by badrig
    People have herd mentailty they will sell their lands only after substantial fall. wiseman continue your good work. I admire your knowledge. I send your posts thro emails to many people as social service


    is'nt that herd mentality too my dear social worker.this forum is about exchanging views i request members to post their views good bad or ugly.
    stop commenting on others good or bad.
    we are here for your views on RE and things which affect RE,not for views on other members. i am new here and i see a lot of posts on comments about posts and single liners.
    i see a lot about wiseman and natraj,
    the bulls and the bears both views are necessary to form an opinion.
    dont sneer at anyone .
    I am here to protect my invst and i need both views.
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  • Real Bulls & Bears

    I have few (5-6) of my colleagues invested 8-10 lacs in stocks.

    Dec-2007 , everyone of them were happy to have invested as their portfolio were 50-60 percent up.

    But March-08 , their shares came down to the original price at which they have bought. As months passed on,the prices have been falling atleast 10 percent per month and Sep -08 they were reduced to 30 percent of the bought value. Since July-08 they were waiting for the increase in price so that they can exit(they know the slowdown as they keep upreast with all the industry/finance news) and atleast break-even.

    Had they sold the stocks between Apr-Aug 08 , they would have escaped with minimal loss.

    "It is like riding a tiger, not knowing how to get off without being eaten" are the everyone's statement as many of them are from Raju's state.

    Its the same case with few here ...have bought the land at higher price and did not book the profit at the correct time ...now they see the value had depreciated to 40-50 percent and waiting to see this decimated to 20%.

    Dont worry guys , we will have more lands for sale at the price of our wish(realistic).

    Prolonged waiting is the characteristics of a bear & Natraj and Co are waiting and waiting to sell the land.Real Bears Bears Bears. As there is no standard index for RE , trying to portray the wrong story .But everyone is aware of the scenario.

    People whom were called as bears in this forum are cash-rich and waiting to buy lands/apartments. Real Bulls..

    Comeon Kings and Emperors ... More they wait ... More good for us.
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  • Sethugam,

    2009 will see another 20% fall
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