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General Elections in India and Real Estate Indian Political Outlook 2014

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General Elections in India and Real Estate Indian Political Outlook 2014

Last updated: October 16 2014
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  • General Elections in India and Real Estate Indian Political Outlook 2014

    Prediction for the 2014 General Elections in India

    I think in optimistic scenario BJP will manage to win 210-215 seats (with Delhi and Uttarakhand which got left out in the table). Central to this prediction is optimistic estimate of 10 seats on its own in Andhra, 17 in Bihar, 12 in KArnataka, and a very optimistic 25 in UP = 75. Most pessimistic estimate in these would be 2, 12, 8, 15 = 40 i.e a deficit of 35 seats with a total of 160-170. I think this is unlikely and in fact, BJP on its own with existing allies might cross well above 220 based on even better performance in Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, and UP.

    Most importantly, my prediction estimates a wipe out of Nitish - he might do better - but in the end he is likely to ally with NDA. Jagan, Chiranjeevi and TRS might ally with NDA. AAP might abstain. AIADMK and TNC might give issue based support to NDA - and BSP might sell its seats = comfortable majority on the floor is easily possible.

    How can BJP convert this good situation into a self goal? BJP has self destructive tendencies but fortunately, all of these issues are getting spent well before the elections - BJP blundered in Delhi govt formation and criticism of AAP, criticism of Gays, Asaram Bapu, snoopgate, Gadkari Purti - whatever blunders are in its genetic makeup it has already done or uttered well in advance - making it difficult to imagine just how it can goof up.

    But BJP is an expert in snatching defeat from the jaws of victory as it did in Delhi recently - but AAP govt in Delhi is best possible outcome for BJP by confining AAP to a 6 months performance. Stupid Goel has been attacking BJP by attacking AAP - he is BJP's worst enemy by making these stupid vitriolic comments.

    Best approach for BJP would be to extend issue based support to AAP, giving assurance that it will not let Congress topple the AAP govt and to encouurage and promote the steps taken by AAP - instead of making a shadow cabinet in AAP to detract the AAP, they should in fact extend help and advice to AAP and even lend its cadre to AAP - to coopt and turn the AAP into its B team.

    But BJP leaders are stupid. MAybe NArendra Modi might do these things - and get the AAP supporters on his side for the Lok Sabha elections.

    AAP might get 23 seats with 4 in Delhi, 4 in Karnataka, 5 in Punjab, 5 in Haryana and 5 in UP. I am not sure they will succeed in Maharashtra. This is however dependent on the performance. If they do tax cuts in Delhi, they will win. If they think in communist ideology, they wil lcommit hara kiri.

    Third front is a non starter now - since Nitish is out. I have given good projection for Navin Patnaik, NCP and Trinamul but they cannot ally with communist - so the third front is basically impossible.

    All in all, the thrust of BJP should be to recapture from AAP without criticising - but by joining at grassroots level - and they romp home!
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    Last edited January 2 2014, 01:13 AM.
    Venky (Please read watch a or before posting)
  • #2

    #2

    Re : General Elections in India and Real Estate Indian Political Outlook 2014

    I feel 25 seats in UP is possible..even i am optimistic to 30+ given that RLD is completely sweep by BJP after Muzzafarnagar riots and Hindu votes from SP/ Congress will go to BJP..
    Last edited January 2 2014, 01:13 AM.

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    • #3

      #3

      Re : General Elections in India and Real Estate Indian Political Outlook 2014

      Never underestimate a new Player....

      My Predication:--
      BJP Alone...... 180 Which I seriously Doubt will give Modi a Chance to become PM....

      AAP already dented its Momentum... In case AAP comes up with a innovative way.. way they fight in Delhi.... They can touch 50.... But they need to concentate their work forces..


      Divide your forces to arouse The Masses..
      Concentrate your forces to deal with enemy............

      I think BJP can not gamble to club (not openly) with AAP as it is more profitable to AAP... not for BJP....

      As per me AAP is Virus... it is spreading like Viral...

      Even in Small Districts (3rd or 4th Tier City) also no one is now rulling them out.... as of now no one giving them a chance to win.. like 6 months before Delhi election no one was expecting 5 seats.. Similarly every one thinks there is a chance.. but not sure.. Now upto AAP to come up with innovative way like Jhhadu Yatra that was masterstroke... Similarly something more innovative for national level....
      Last edited January 2 2014, 01:14 AM.

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      • #4

        #4

        Re : General Elections in India and Real Estate Indian Political Outlook 2014

        Venky Do u think Nitesh Kumar Will be reduced to 3.... ??? not sure what is the reason behind it .. as far as I know he is doing good in Bihar... Sushil Modi is trying hard with Modi Wave... But Modi Wave is Top up.... Not a Reason to get a Win for un-known name..

        Top Up means last 2-10 % Votes...
        Seats Where BJP's Existing Vote % is 10-15 .. all of that can not be Won by this Wave.. Only Seats with 12-20 % are having fair chance...

        Do not Forget Promod Mahajan type clever person is missing from this BJP team.. Amit Shah is not another Promod Mahajan...

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        • #5

          #5

          Re : General Elections in India and Real Estate Indian Political Outlook 2014

          Originally posted by Stots2708 View Post
          Venky Do u think Nitesh Kumar Will be reduced to 3.... ??? not sure what is the reason behind it .. as far as I know he is doing good in Bihar... Sushil Modi is trying hard with Modi Wave... But Modi Wave is Top up.... Not a Reason to get a Win for un-known name..

          Top Up means last 2-10 % Votes...
          Seats Where BJP's Existing Vote % is 10-15 .. all of that can not be Won by this Wave.. Only Seats with 12-20 % are having fair chance...

          Do not Forget Promod Mahajan type clever person is missing from this BJP team.. Amit Shah is not another Promod Mahajan...
          Muslims, MBC (some), Dalit (some) and Yadav will vote for Lalu/Congress/PAswan

          Rest will vote for BJP.

          Who will vote for Nitish?

          In fact seeing the writing on the wall, Nitish might rejoin with BJP as a junior partner. It is in Nitish best interest and his party might force his hand to eat humble pie.

          Please see earlier discussions on the subject also:

          https://www.indianrealestateforum.co...=15139&page=18
          Last edited January 1 2014, 04:35 PM.
          Venky (Please read watch a or before posting)

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          • #6

            #6

            Re : General Elections in India and Real Estate Indian Political Outlook 2014

            Originally posted by Stots2708 View Post
            Venky Do u think Nitesh Kumar Will be reduced to 3.... ??? not sure what is the reason behind it .. as far as I know he is doing good in Bihar... Sushil Modi is trying hard with Modi Wave... But Modi Wave is Top up.... Not a Reason to get a Win for un-known name..

            Top Up means last 2-10 % Votes...
            Seats Where BJP's Existing Vote % is 10-15 .. all of that can not be Won by this Wave.. Only Seats with 12-20 % are having fair chance...

            Do not Forget Promod Mahajan type clever person is missing from this BJP team.. Amit Shah is not another Promod Mahajan...
            Venky,

            Congress/lalu 20!!!!!!! You gotta be kidding... I can bet anything that they wont get half of that number...

            No way nitish is staying at 3!!!! He hasnt done anything bad...10+ for sure..
            BJP should easily goto around 22-25 with this modi wave..

            Cheers,

            Comment

            • #7

              #7

              Re : General Elections in India and Real Estate Indian Political Outlook 2014

              Originally posted by Venkytalks View Post
              AAP might get 23 seats with 4 in Delhi, 4 in Karnataka, 5 in Punjab, 5 in Haryana and 5 in UP.
              My prediction: There is no way, AAP can get 5 seats in Punjab. They do not have single strong candidate from Punjab, like khemka, Yogendra Yadav from Haryana.

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              • #8

                #8

                Re : General Elections in India and Real Estate Indian Political Outlook 2014

                History Repeat Itself. In Delhi Election People ignored that they are newbie & cannot do anything. So Today biggest parties are feeling heat due to that mis-understanding.

                Now people are saying that they are only regional, not having enough means, not having candidates. This is not a party, This is a concept of We. We can Do. We can Change. We are owners. This We can change the whole equation. In my opinion AAP atleast in three digits.

                Today If Govt. Falls in Delhi due to Congress, then no body can stop them by achieving more than 200 seats in LS. Otherwise minimum 100 Confirmed. Lock Kiya Jaye.

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                • #9

                  #9

                  Re : General Elections in India and Real Estate Indian Political Outlook 2014

                  Originally posted by minkulal View Post
                  History Repeat Itself. In Delhi Election People ignored that they are newbie & cannot do anything. So Today biggest parties are feeling heat due to that mis-understanding.

                  Now people are saying that they are only regional, not having enough means, not having candidates. This is not a party, This is a concept of We. We can Do. We can Change. We are owners. This We can change the whole equation. In my opinion AAP atleast in three digits.

                  Today If Govt. Falls in Delhi due to Congress, then no body can stop them by achieving more than 200 seats in LS. Otherwise minimum 100 Confirmed. Lock Kiya Jaye.
                  detailed analysis please.....

                  Comment

                  • #10

                    #10

                    Re : General Elections in India and Real Estate Indian Political Outlook 2014

                    Never unestimate the power of common man.... AAP would contest from 300 seats... 20 out of 300 seats...??? I will come back on this thread after results... My take - at least 45 seats...!

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