One persons loss is another persons gain.

Sellers:
If you have any property for sale, sell it now. Dont be greedy. Else you are in for a big loss.

Buyers:
Dont buy property now. Wait for 6 months. If things are going down, wait another 6 months. The property rates are going to crash.

Here are the reasons:
1.) Builder/Politician nexus has caused the hype.
2.) The prices of real estate has increased by 3-5 times.
3.) Supply is more than demand for such premium prices properties.
4.) Salaries/Cost of material/Labour has not increased in the same ratio.
5.) There has hardly any improvement in infrastructure.
6.) No value added. Same traffic jams and trash once you get outside the community.
7.) Interest rates have gone up. Monthly instalments are becoming impossible for even profesionals. Not everyone is IT-Project leader.
8.) Stockmarkets have collapsed. DLF stocks has gone down significantly.
9.) There is liquidity crunch. FIIs have taken the money out to compensate for their losses in US due to sub-prime crisis.
10.) If you buy a property now, be prepared to stay in it for 5-10 years. You will be lucky if you can find a tenant who can pay 75% of your monthly mortgage. So you will loose 25% every month on interest costs and even more if the property prices go further down!
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  • Real Estate prices have crashed in NCR by 20%. It is going to crash further. Wait the figure would be somewhare 60% in second quater.
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  • Originally Posted by moghad
    Real Estate prices have crashed in NCR by 20%. It is going to crash further. Wait the figure would be somewhare 60% in second quater.


    That's just hearsay BS. Can you give any specific examples? I follow the prices of real estate in Delhi very closely.
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  • Panthar, I am generally not critical of people but you are using a double negative in your post (hearsay & BS).

    Anyway, if you do not like the numbers given by Moghad, you post your own numbers with the required proof. Your comment that you watch the RE prices in India very closely tells me either you are RE Broker/Dealer/Agent etc. So how could we trust a person whose has vested interest in propping up the RE prices. If I am wrong, tell me your profession and reason for watching the prices so closely.

    I would have preferred if Moghad had given an example but given the way things are with the RE investment in India, it is very difficult to find out true price of the property. They will not post the value on their sites (even thought many RE companies have very fancy sites). The reasoning I believe is that they can't get black money if they quote the final price online. Don't give the reason that you can't change the property price online fast enough (Its web pages for god's sake).
    That brings me to another point. The people who invested black money in the Indian RE are going to be royally burnt.

    Let me say that again...
    The people who invested black money in the Indian RE are going to be royally burnt.
    Here are the reasons that come to my mind:
    These guys were in the RE for the quick money (keep moving the money so it doesn't get caught). With the RE slump, they will have to hold on to the properties for longer. Either they can hold on themselves (with Income Tax people becoming more vigilant, it will get ugly... And government needs money now more than ever) OR they could put it on someone else's name (More risks if the person changes his/her mind or even worst, he/she can't prove the source of income).

    I would conservatively call for property prices to crash back to 2001 levels (Before the housing boom began). I would have said year 2000 but need to put the buffer for the inflation.
    While we are at it, watch for inflation kicking in either later this year or early next year. Got PM ?
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  • Dude,
    Chill out! :) I didn't mean to offend you.

    To be more precise, my criticism was directed towards your quote regarding 20% correction to have happened already. I don't think any correction has happened yet. I am waiting and praying for the prices to fall down and get real, but the people who have the market by its gonads are continuing to hold on the to unrealistic prices. The builders and other big players are spreading rumors about correction that has already happened. But I scan the epaper versions of TOI and HT every weekend, I still haven't seen the slightest downward movement in the quoted prices.

    If your forecast about the prices coming down to 2001 levels turns out to be true, no one will be happier than I.

    I do have PM (private message?). Never got one from you though. Unless, you are referring to something else.
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  • Corrections have already happened.

    Rs 3500 per sqft flat in Pallikaranai/Madipakkam etc which was some 2 years ago are now quoting Rs 3000 to Rs 3200 per sqft.

    That means with inflation of about 10%, correction is already taken for about 20 to 25% for flats.

    In OMR, it is still steep
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  • Hi Pinnacle ,
    i do agree wit u. Well the property crash is every were, in the country and the way or the other makret will come up. i jst appreciate the spohiciation use by Mr CHin. I am myself a propetry broker working with the largest firm. I have seen big Builders promised big thngs but hve nt delevered biggest example JAypee Greens project and there are hell lot of local builders who build 4storey in the location and sell it at higher rates and thre are so many scam done at this level and it is evry wre. Prat seem 2 be a local builder who hold lots of attitude when the biggest brand Unitech crashes then local builders stand no where. We are here for the healthy debate not to diffrentiate delhite nd non delhite. We all r from the same industry should respect each other. WE should be confident bt nt over confident.
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  • sell the Apartment

    Well Mark if you can tell me, wre r u r properties which u would like to sell it out. So that i can assist you with best possible information.
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  • I am neither a property dealer nor an agent. I am just a rational NRI who has earned the money the hard way and learnt a lot in the due process. I didn't quote that the prices have dropped 20% or 10% or anything cos my biggest complaint has always been the difficulty of accessing the right prices by the locality. Scanning the TOI/HT adverts is not the most scientific way of finding prices if you know. Lot of it is negotiation and black money. In USA, you can find the price of the house, your neighbors house and history of the house (when it was sold, for what price and which bank provided the mortgage).

    My rational of the property prices has to do with 1. The affordability of the properties 2. Annual earnings of the property 3. Buy/Rent calculation 4. Interest rates 5. Economic prospects 6. Job projections and security 7. Availability of liquid cash 8. Availability of credit... a lot more in the equation than you would think. My call of prices going back to 2001 level was a guesstimate and all the above factors would still play in.
    The correction in RE prices WILL happen as the prices at this level is not sustainable.
    If someone is hoarding the property, he/she is doing at its own peril. Market forces are much stronger.

    BTW, PM in investment world stands for precious metals (sometimes used as an inflation hedge). You saw the gold/silver etc performed better than other investment vehicles in the past 4-5 years if inflation is taken into account.
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  • I am neither a property dealer nor an agent. I am just a rational NRI who has earned the money the hard way and learnt a lot in the due process. I didn't quote that the prices have dropped 20% or 10% or anything cos my biggest complaint has always been the difficulty of accessing the right prices by the locality. Scanning the TOI/HT adverts is not the most scientific way of finding prices if you know. Lot of it is negotiation and black money. In USA, you can find the price of the house, your neighbors house and history of the house (when it was sold, for what price and which bank provided the mortgage).

    My rational of the property prices has to do with 1. The affordability of the properties 2. Annual earnings of the property 3. Buy/Rent calculation 4. Interest rates 5. Economic prospects 6. Job projections and security 7. Availability of liquid cash 8. Availability of credit... a lot more in the equation than you would think. My call of prices going back to 2001 level was a guesstimate and all the above factors would still play in.
    The correction WILL happen as the prices at this level is not sustainable.
    If someone is hoarding the property, he/she is doing at its own peril. Market forces are much stronger.

    BTW, PM in investment world stands for precious metals (sometimes used as an inflation hedge). You saw the gold/silver etc performed better than other investment vehicles in the past 4-5 years if inflation is taken into account.
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  • This is a situation everywhere today. I am in USA and I see all realtors crashing down to earth. We all are trying very hard and coming up with so many ideas to promote the properties but not seeing any buyers. If this continues I don't know what will be the end. Hope that everything will work out fine in future.
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  • Looks great! A lot of great thoughts!
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  • Indian RE estate in over hyped and priced by the Broker.agent and media. And many stupid people followed the wave and bought at the Pick time 2007-2008.
    The NRI's should please stay away buying home/house in place like Bangalore/Hyd/Chennai with this over hyped priced. We Indian know that you have earned money in $$$. Dont screw up more and show the JALWA of you $$$.
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  • Dear friend,

    NRIs are more powerful now due to the fast depreciation of the Rupee. Which is expected to lower down to even Rs. 55 per US $ in a month's time?

    ks2071746:(
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  • Originally Posted by ks2071746
    Dear friend,

    NRIs are more powerful now due to the fast depreciation of the Rupee. Which is expected to lower down to even Rs. 55 per US ** in a month's time?

    ks2071746:(


    KS. Depreciating rupee is not always good for the NRIs. In fact any currency fluctuation is bad for investing unless you are making money off of those fluctuations.
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  • I am a new member in this forum. While I read a lot of news about drop in prices in news articles, the ground reality seems to be different. Builders seem to playing around with the size of the apartment more than really giving a good discount on the rates. While DLF has reduced the sqft rates, the completion period is a painful 3 years, for their Bangalore project. Are members in this forum seeing a genuine drop in rates in your localities ?
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