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Coming Property Crash

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Coming Property Crash

Last updated: May 5 2009
102 | Posts
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  • #61

    #61

    Re : Coming Property Crash

    Originally posted by snehra1 View Post
    Hi all,
    I m naive so not commenting on anyone's replies here just writing our experience no pls pardon.
    We are NRI's and have been in US from last 3 years.We visited India in March 2007 and were planning to buy a residential plot preferably rather than appartment in NCR area.And found asal's behind ABES engg. college at NH-24.
    The seller asked 25 lakhs on registery and 25 lakhs black money total cash for 300 sq yard plot.We gave up our plan to buy anything that time as we were hearing news of real estate downfall in coming time and did not buy any thing.

    Now my father got some news about the current status over the same place is that those sellers who were demanding 25 lakhs in cash and were holding their plots to make more profit are not able to sell off their plots and looking for buyers and giving away 20% discount.

    We will be visiting India this year around september please u all real estate gurus suggest what should we do.. should we plan to buy if market goes down by that time or we should again wait for next 2 years .

    The residential plot is located at very prime location on NH-24.And pls read this article to understand more.
    http://www.expressestates.in/full_st...ntent_id=92440

    We did not contact them its a property dealer of ghaziabad who is a friend of my father told him that now they are diving 20% discount on the black amount and he also said those guies will be selling those plots at 70 -80 % discount on the black money around july.We don't know if its a rumor or they are really giving 20% discount right now on the black money because this is what we have heard from a third person.

    Comment

    • #62

      #62

      Re : Coming Property Crash

      Real Estate prices have crashed in NCR by 20%. It is going to crash further. Wait the figure would be somewhare 60% in second quater.

      Comment

      • #63

        #63

        Re : Coming Property Crash

        Originally posted by moghad View Post
        Real Estate prices have crashed in NCR by 20%. It is going to crash further. Wait the figure would be somewhare 60% in second quater.
        That's just hearsay BS. Can you give any specific examples? I follow the prices of real estate in Delhi very closely.

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        • #64

          #64

          Re : Coming Property Crash

          Panthar, I am generally not critical of people but you are using a double negative in your post (hearsay & BS).

          Anyway, if you do not like the numbers given by Moghad, you post your own numbers with the required proof. Your comment that you watch the RE prices in India very closely tells me either you are RE Broker/Dealer/Agent etc. So how could we trust a person whose has vested interest in propping up the RE prices. If I am wrong, tell me your profession and reason for watching the prices so closely.

          I would have preferred if Moghad had given an example but given the way things are with the RE investment in India, it is very difficult to find out true price of the property. They will not post the value on their sites (even thought many RE companies have very fancy sites). The reasoning I believe is that they can't get black money if they quote the final price online. Don't give the reason that you can't change the property price online fast enough (Its web pages for god's sake).
          That brings me to another point. The people who invested black money in the Indian RE are going to be royally burnt.

          Let me say that again...
          The people who invested black money in the Indian RE are going to be royally burnt.
          Here are the reasons that come to my mind:
          These guys were in the RE for the quick money (keep moving the money so it doesn't get caught). With the RE slump, they will have to hold on to the properties for longer. Either they can hold on themselves (with Income Tax people becoming more vigilant, it will get ugly... And government needs money now more than ever) OR they could put it on someone else's name (More risks if the person changes his/her mind or even worst, he/she can't prove the source of income).

          I would conservatively call for property prices to crash back to 2001 levels (Before the housing boom began). I would have said year 2000 but need to put the buffer for the inflation.
          While we are at it, watch for inflation kicking in either later this year or early next year. Got PM ?

          Comment

          • #65

            #65

            Re : Coming Property Crash

            Dude,
            Chill out! I didn't mean to offend you.

            To be more precise, my criticism was directed towards your quote regarding 20% correction to have happened already. I don't think any correction has happened yet. I am waiting and praying for the prices to fall down and get real, but the people who have the market by its gonads are continuing to hold on the to unrealistic prices. The builders and other big players are spreading rumors about correction that has already happened. But I scan the epaper versions of TOI and HT every weekend, I still haven't seen the slightest downward movement in the quoted prices.

            If your forecast about the prices coming down to 2001 levels turns out to be true, no one will be happier than I.

            I do have PM (private message?). Never got one from you though. Unless, you are referring to something else.

            Comment

            • #66

              #66

              Re : Coming Property Crash

              Corrections have already happened.

              Rs 3500 per sqft flat in Pallikaranai/Madipakkam etc which was some 2 years ago are now quoting Rs 3000 to Rs 3200 per sqft.

              That means with inflation of about 10%, correction is already taken for about 20 to 25% for flats.

              In OMR, it is still steep

              Comment

              • #67

                #67

                Re : Coming Property Crash

                Hi Pinnacle ,
                i do agree wit u. Well the property crash is every were, in the country and the way or the other makret will come up. i jst appreciate the spohiciation use by Mr CHin. I am myself a propetry broker working with the largest firm. I have seen big Builders promised big thngs but hve nt delevered biggest example JAypee Greens project and there are hell lot of local builders who build 4storey in the location and sell it at higher rates and thre are so many scam done at this level and it is evry wre. Prat seem 2 be a local builder who hold lots of attitude when the biggest brand Unitech crashes then local builders stand no where. We are here for the healthy debate not to diffrentiate delhite nd non delhite. We all r from the same industry should respect each other. WE should be confident bt nt over confident.
                Last edited February 24 2009, 05:35 PM. Reason: spell check

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                • #68

                  #68

                  Re : Coming Property Crash

                  sell the Apartment

                  Well Mark if you can tell me, wre r u r properties which u would like to sell it out. So that i can assist you with best possible information.

                  Comment

                  • #69

                    #69

                    Re : Coming Property Crash

                    I am neither a property dealer nor an agent. I am just a rational NRI who has earned the money the hard way and learnt a lot in the due process. I didn't quote that the prices have dropped 20% or 10% or anything cos my biggest complaint has always been the difficulty of accessing the right prices by the locality. Scanning the TOI/HT adverts is not the most scientific way of finding prices if you know. Lot of it is negotiation and black money. In USA, you can find the price of the house, your neighbors house and history of the house (when it was sold, for what price and which bank provided the mortgage).

                    My rational of the property prices has to do with 1. The affordability of the properties 2. Annual earnings of the property 3. Buy/Rent calculation 4. Interest rates 5. Economic prospects 6. Job projections and security 7. Availability of liquid cash 8. Availability of credit... a lot more in the equation than you would think. My call of prices going back to 2001 level was a guesstimate and all the above factors would still play in.
                    The correction in RE prices WILL happen as the prices at this level is not sustainable.
                    If someone is hoarding the property, he/she is doing at its own peril. Market forces are much stronger.

                    BTW, PM in investment world stands for precious metals (sometimes used as an inflation hedge). You saw the gold/silver etc performed better than other investment vehicles in the past 4-5 years if inflation is taken into account.

                    Comment

                    • #70

                      #70

                      Re : Coming Property Crash

                      I am neither a property dealer nor an agent. I am just a rational NRI who has earned the money the hard way and learnt a lot in the due process. I didn't quote that the prices have dropped 20% or 10% or anything cos my biggest complaint has always been the difficulty of accessing the right prices by the locality. Scanning the TOI/HT adverts is not the most scientific way of finding prices if you know. Lot of it is negotiation and black money. In USA, you can find the price of the house, your neighbors house and history of the house (when it was sold, for what price and which bank provided the mortgage).

                      My rational of the property prices has to do with 1. The affordability of the properties 2. Annual earnings of the property 3. Buy/Rent calculation 4. Interest rates 5. Economic prospects 6. Job projections and security 7. Availability of liquid cash 8. Availability of credit... a lot more in the equation than you would think. My call of prices going back to 2001 level was a guesstimate and all the above factors would still play in.
                      The correction WILL happen as the prices at this level is not sustainable.
                      If someone is hoarding the property, he/she is doing at its own peril. Market forces are much stronger.

                      BTW, PM in investment world stands for precious metals (sometimes used as an inflation hedge). You saw the gold/silver etc performed better than other investment vehicles in the past 4-5 years if inflation is taken into account.

                      Comment

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