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Real Estate Predictions for 2009/2010

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Real Estate Predictions for 2009/2010

Last updated: February 14 2009
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  • #11

    #11

    Re : Real Estate Predictions for 2009/2010

    Originally posted by madrasi View Post
    wiseman youseem to say what the us thinktank under obama is doing is
    foolish and will only cause more damage then solving problems.
    you think what the indian thinktank doing is stupid.
    you think the world leaders meeting at davos are all fools
    to inject liquidity in the world.
    this is too much to digest WISEMAN.
    you paint evryone as idiots,nobody understands economy except you.
    FOOD FOR THOUGHT

    Comment

    • #12

      #12

      Re : Real Estate Predictions for 2009/2010

      You are right WISEMAN. Oil will not stay in the $40 range for long... we both know the reason for that. That's why I am long on Oil and Oil ETFs.

      The reason I stopped posting is that my posts were suddenly not appearing on this board. It tells me that it's under "moderation". I wish that was the case with our financial markets.

      Anyway, You are again right on China. It will be a double whammy for them. One is the job losses for the Chinese due to export contractions and hence GDP loss. The other is even more interesting... You are ready for this... Chinese saved a lot (higher savings rate than India) and put the money in Bank... Where do you think the chinese banks put the money... They bought US treasuries/bonds/corporate debt/CDO/MBS etc. Those have lost value and even the USD has lost value. So people in China lost both ways... Unemployeed and Broke.

      You are spot on regarding Inflation (with a CAPITAL I)... that's why I am also long on PMs (no ETFs though). While we are on the topic, watch for Euro style currency in North America soon.

      Comment

      • #13

        #13

        Re : Real Estate Predictions for 2009/2010

        check your facts wiseman

        Originally posted by wiseman View Post
        Dude Chataara,

        5. Who FIRST stated that the worst hit country will not be US, UK, Spain, Japan or any of the others. It will be China! Surprised? There are very valid reasons for it. Latest news that supports my claim: China's GDP growth has crashed from 12% to zero in just a single quarter. 20 million workers (actually may be more) are predicted to have already been rendered jobless with very little prospects of another job!

        The problem was, I was too early and these predictions so early are hard to believe!!!

        cheers
        Check your facts wiseman
        china's GDP is not zero AND IS PREDICTED BY REPUTED economists to grow by 7.5% in 2009 (chinese govt says 10%)
        Last edited February 7 2009, 12:07 PM.

        Comment

        • #14

          #14

          Re : Real Estate Predictions for 2009/2010

          Originally posted by wiseman View Post
          Dude Chataara,

          Forgot me so soon? I only got off posting a few days and its as if I didn't happen here at all!!!

          Don't forget:

          1The problem was, I was too early and these predictions so early are hard to believe!!!


          cheers
          hard to believe! yes when we read news your data seem to be from
          mars.
          China GDP from 12% to 0?????? show me the source.

          Comment

          • #15

            #15

            Re : Real Estate Predictions for 2009/2010

            Originally posted by newboy View Post
            hard to believe! yes when we read news your data seem to be from
            mars.
            China GDP from 12% to 0?????? show me the source.

            If u cant dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bullshit!

            Comment

            • #16

              #16

              Re : Real Estate Predictions for 2009/2010

              here check it out,

              Originally posted by vijai5
              i think he is referring to last quarter alone,but what you are telling 8% is for the whole year
              http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/20...t_10700833.htm

              check it out
              4th quarter gdp is 6.8%
              3rd quarter 9.0%
              2nd quarter 10.1%
              ist quarter 10.6%

              national bureau of statistics CHINA.
              Last edited February 8 2009, 10:48 AM.

              Comment

              • #17

                #17

                Re : Real Estate Predictions for 2009/2010

                Originally posted by abk View Post
                http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/20...t_10700833.htm

                check it out
                4th quarter gdp is 6.8%
                3rd quarter 9.0%
                2nd quarter 10.1%
                ist quarter 10.6%

                national bureau of statistics CHINA.
                here is one more source
                China’s GDP Growth Slowed to 6.8% in Fourth Quarter (Update2)

                Email | Print | A A A



                By Kevin Hamlin and Li Yanping


                Jan. 22 (Bloomberg) -- China’s economy expanded at the slowest pace in seven years as the global recession dragged down exports, increasing pressure for more government spending and lower interest rates to buoy growth.
                Gross domestic product grew 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, after a 9 percent gain in the previous three months, the statistics bureau said in Beijing today. The figure matched the median estimate of 12 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

                Comment

                • #18

                  #18

                  Re : Real Estate Predictions for 2009/2010

                  you are right ... but get the point ...

                  Originally posted by newboy View Post
                  Check your facts wiseman
                  china's GDP is not zero AND IS PREDICTED BY REPUTED economists to grow by 7.5% in 2009 (chinese govt says 10%)

                  Originally posted by newboy View Post
                  hard to believe! yes when we read news your data seem to be from
                  mars.
                  China GDP from 12% to 0?????? show me the source.

                  GDP growth in China for Qtr Dec 2008 was 6.7%. The estimated growth by China's own administration is in the range of 4% - 6% next year. It was estimated that, for the western economies to be pulled out of a recession, implying a negative growth in GDP, India as well as China should have grown by at least 10% in 2009.

                  Btw, China's estimates from official sources have long been thought to be cooked as per their requirements. In fact the US has been cooking their figures since Reagan days. The un-official unemployment rate now is closer to 13% than the 7.1% being touted by the BLS in the US. I can give you details about that if you want.

                  My point was, with China coming in at even 6% (thats easily half the projected GDP growth in 2008 which itself will not be reached) and India probably in the 4% - 6% level, it is very likely that the world will be in deep recession or even depression by mid this year. That was my point.

                  Oh yes. And this is for the person who is accusing me for thinking that I'm the only economist worth noting in this world!

                  Sorry dude. First of all, I don't claim to be one leave alone an accurate one . Second More than 150 noted economists, including Krugman, Roubini and the others think that though this bailout is the only thing to prevent the US completely breaking down, throwing enormous amounts of credit into an economy that is breaking down because of excess credit is the worst thing to do. So, I'm not the only one who thinks so (and I'm not an economist).

                  Besides, they are bailing out banks by pumping in money to buy their equity at many times what they are worth. Meaning, if CITI had a total capitalization of say $30 Billion, the Govt is pumping in over $100 Billion for a part of that equity (not even the whole). This too is considered the worst thing to do.

                  There is now serious talk that the 5 countries most likely to go the Icelandic way (meaning complete collapse) includes UK!. And UK is doing precisely what the US is doing.

                  Btw, Japan did exactly this in 1990 to bail out the RE bubble hit banks. This hiding of bad debts by pumping in more money and keeping the banks in a zombie state is considered the main reason for Japan to be in recession 19 years from that date. Their real estate is now the same level as it was in the mid 1980s - do you want Indian RE to go there? . You will be cleaned out for life then.

                  Lastly, there is now serious talk about the US disappearing as a single country and breaking up due to the stresses of this crisis. No, not by crackpots. Serious people who track these things.

                  So, if you were aiming that one about "the only one in the world who knows what he is talking" at me, don't bother. You are missing the point. I'm not talking in the air. My a** is covered because I take these points made by others seriously. Is your a** covered? Else start taking serious note of the things I'm telling you because these are the points being made by the most accurate economists in this world (not me, I'm just the courier ).

                  You have not seen a depression like this in your life and neither has your father (obviously it applies to me and my father as well - in fact he too is in denial about selling his property ). So, we cannot let the euphoria of the boom-boom bubble period of the last few years let us be carried away. You could do that at your own peril.

                  And good to see that you are not blindly taking what I say at face value and instead checking the facts ! And correcting me when I slip - maybe I delibrately slipped to see if you guys were taking it all in without thinking?

                  cheers
                  Last edited February 8 2009, 06:08 PM.

                  Comment

                  • #19

                    #19

                    Re : Real Estate Predictions for 2009/2010

                    I'm going to be in touch with you long term !!!

                    Originally posted by nick_alan_76 View Post
                    You are right WISEMAN. Oil will not stay in the $40 range for long... we both know the reason for that. That's why I am long on Oil and Oil ETFs.

                    The reason I stopped posting is that my posts were suddenly not appearing on this board. It tells me that it's under "moderation". I wish that was the case with our financial markets.

                    Anyway, You are again right on China. It will be a double whammy for them. One is the job losses for the Chinese due to export contractions and hence GDP loss. The other is even more interesting... You are ready for this... Chinese saved a lot (higher savings rate than India) and put the money in Bank... Where do you think the chinese banks put the money... They bought US treasuries/bonds/corporate debt/CDO/MBS etc. Those have lost value and even the USD has lost value. So people in China lost both ways... Unemployeed and Broke.

                    You are spot on regarding Inflation (with a CAPITAL I)... that's why I am also long on PMs (no ETFs though). While we are on the topic, watch for Euro style currency in North America soon.

                    Alan,

                    You are very good. I'm going to keep in touch with you long term.

                    Btw, I sent you a mail regarding how to avoid having your posts inadvertently sent for moderation. Also, as the moderator says, first 100 posts, go easy on adding links to your posts. Spam checker thinks it may be advertisement for RE brokers/builders.

                    cheers

                    Comment

                    • #20

                      #20

                      Re : Real Estate Predictions for 2009/2010

                      Indian economy is better, when compared to China, in the sense it is less export focused. However, it will see the biggest bust ever due to Real Estate Industry. Prices of same real estate asset has crossed many times affordability limit. Some Banks will go down with it.

                      Satyam situation is politically controlled. Govt., is trying its best not to break the bad news. We will not see its real affect soon as Govt., will try its best to delay the bad news as far as it can due to election year.

                      Comment

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