If it's recession in indian real estate sector, as every one is saying so, then how come DLF's high rise residential project (1400 flats) at shivaji marg, new delhi was over sold within 3 days from the date of launch.
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  • Real estate prices run in cycles world over - pretty much sine wave types - but at an angle to base of the graph! the degree of which is the historical rate of inflation!
    The length of the peak to peak being about 18 years approx stretched sometimes a bit because of excess liquidity , note printing by govt, bailouts etc..
    The Indian real estate scene peaked around 2007-2008 , so by this theory we should see a low point ind about 18/2+2007=2016 and an high at 2007+18=2025 - any bets guys?
    Its has happened in the past for hundreds of years , and will happen again!
    Check out this graph
    http://newbridgereorealty.com/markettiming.html
    to get an idea of the " angle" of inflation funda! The black line is the angle thingee.
    If u believe this - yes, u can time the real estate market - and make plenty of money for ur next generation!!!!

    If u r interested check out these web sites on r s cycles:

    http://www.foldvary.net/works/cycle.html

    http://aux.zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/jrer/papers/pdf/past/vol14n03/v14p233.pdf

    And the scariest one of them all :
    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2007/10/imf-mortgage-reset-chart.html

    2010 - 2012 is going to bad by this one.
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  • till the time we have this govt. no hope of real prices - only cartelized
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  • huh? Did I miss something?
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  • do u guys think that we are out of recession now . The realty prices have started moving north ward once again though not like earlier / boom period. The rise is there though marginal :)

    Well, this time it's on the name of affordable housing ...there are no luxury and super luxury projects these days ...... and I have a strong feeling that most of these projects wont be delivered on time and a few may run away once again ..... one needs to be cautious at this time..

    Pl. do comment..
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  • Originally Posted by Indianil
    do u guys think that we are out of recession now . The realty prices have started moving north ward once again though not like earlier / boom period. The rise is there though marginal :)

    Pl. do comment..


    Finally they'll come to the poles and just get freezed forever
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  • Dear all,

    The price levels are not corrected as it should be. As I see from Chennai scenario, none of the major projects launched in 2006 to 2008 has completed so far. I do not want to name any. I met a builder in April 2006. He is a friend to one of my friend. It was a joint venture project which he is constructing in Vadapalani. His portion is sold out and told me that land owner portion will be open for sale. He told me that Rs. 2500 per sq.ft which his co-promoter was offering is a mad price. I am seeing Chennai real-estate for the past 25 years. In 1990, one of the reputed builder in Chennai sold as high as Rs. 1200 per sq.ft in Velachery and Madipakkam and that price stagnated till 2002 (12 years). That was the case in Mambalam (1994-2002) etc. So don't fooled by an urge to buy an apartment. Most of our salarys have not increased exponentially in the last 5 years. Where is the logic of apartment prices inceased by 3 times in the last 5 years and all the more the threat of non completion is very real
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