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International Market: Where World Economy Going On ?

Last updated: May 23 2012
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  • #31

    #31

    Re : International Market: Where World Economy Going On ?

    Originally posted by yeskrish View Post
    Thanks for sharing yours.

    I also have invested in POMIS and PPF. But only a portion of my wealth. < 10%. rest i have invested in equity MF 30%; debt MF 30%; liquid MF+BankFD 30%.

    I hope that with this styrategy atleast i can conserve wealth net of inflation, though i would much rather prefer wealth to grow!
    with food inflation at 15%; education inflation at > 15%; Healthcare inflation at > 15%; all form of investments in india are useless.

    i have a vague feeling that once this phase of india's growth tapers say in 5 years time, inflation in india will settle down to 2nd world levels. at say 3-5%.
    I share the same view.I hope the smoke clears soon on when exactly the stimulus will be exited and interest rate hiked substantially to control inflation.

    Supply side constraints should be dealt by punishing hoarders, Streamlining the supply chain by clearing road-blocks and introducing regulators.

    Somewhere deep down I also feel, all the above will remain wishful thinking.The government may just anounce another stimulus when growth is slow pushing inflation even higher.

    Have to see how they are planning to use the money from 3G auction and other disinvestments.

    Comment

    • #32

      #32

      Re : International Market: Where World Economy Going On ?

      Originally posted by wiseman View Post
      Hi Abishek,

      I am prone to believing that progressively the world is getting from bad to worse in the economic sense. Please note that I said "world" and not "India". But what affects the world will also affect us since we are getting increasingly coupled into the world economy.

      The core belief is that we will see a global depression of zero or low growth overall and negative GDP growth in many parts of the world for a few years from today. There will also be a massive destruction of "credit" which happens to actually be "debt" and is the root cause of the whole mess.

      A recent statistical study shows that the worst case scenario will see around half the world's economies go into Sovereign Default (where the Govt itself defaults on repaying debt) and a ultimate loss estimated between $10 - 15 Trillion. But this is the worst case and maybe we will see something far less.

      The takeaway is this. The World will not end! Thats a relief!

      But how you handle your job (income), your spending and your investment as well as the debt you take on can make a HUGE difference to your financials for decades to come.

      This is how I'm approaching the next few years..

      - Reduce all debts to ZERO! I started this in 2006 and went Zero in 2008.

      - Do not leverage to buy any asset since most favored assets (land, stocks) will see significant declines in value (obviously this will be only for short periods of time in India, but in the US they could take several years to come back to where they were in 2007 or for that matter even today. Buy only for cash

      - Reduce discretionary spending (postpone buying those fancy cars, high cost stereos, etc unless you are spending cash and that too after putting aside at least 1 years living expenses for emergency. This will be the toughest thing to do for our youngsters who started their careers running revolving credit on their cards by middle of the month

      - Do not go into long-term debt. 1 year debt instruments (FDs, etc) are probably optimal as Interest rates will be very dynamic

      - Put at least 15-20% of your longterm assets into investment (even at today's price). Foreign Coins (Krugerand, Sovereigns, etc are best). Also buy some silver

      - When markets crash, load up on high dividend yielding stocks with good performance. In the last crash, one could easily pick up good companies with 8% - 12% dividend yield, which is phenmenal as a starting position. Remember that, today, these dividends are tax-free in your hands (which will change with the new tax code) and over the next 5-5 years these dividends will grow to give you a yield of 15% - 25% on your original investment.

      Thats about it. On my part, I also put around 2-3% of my portfolio into highly leveraged speculation in Options which could yield (if you are lucky) returns in the 100s of percent. But this is not an easily available option (pun intended ) and I would not ask anyone to get into F&O as it is a most dangerous field.

      Any other ideas rom others will be welcome as I can add to my tools for financial growth!

      And most importantly, answering your question on stagflation. As money supply crashes (deflationary), credit will become very scarce and very costly (I believe it would easily surpass 90s interest rates of 15%-20% and we will see 20%+ interest rates). Couple this with even stagnating prices of assets along with stagnating incomes as salaries remain flat and real purchasing power of rupee declining and you are heading for some very hard times if you take on debt, especially very large debt (loans) in relation to your income and savings (assets). Remember that, until you pay off your last EMI the house belongs to the bank and in a stagnating price environment and low liquidity, distress sales will see you losing even your down payment if you are forced to sell within the first 5 years as interest takes up most of your EMIs.

      Also relating to investing large parts of our savings in fixed income securities is (in my opinion) a losing proposition when you are simultaneously hit with dropping PP of Rupee, rising interest rates and a lagging return on investment on these securities (the interest you receive is always lower than the interest you pay on debt, that why I call it lagging). If you take a more dynamic interest in the stock market and look for crashing markets to throw up high dividend yields and get into sound stocks purely for dividend with price appreciation as an extra bonus, you will get returns north of 20% and even as high as 50% per annum in a flat market going nowhere. You might want to experiment with this as it has served me very well over the last 25 years!

      But I suppose you know that already Abishek!

      cheers
      Thanks a million for the valuable advice.

      You had said almost the same thing when once I had asked you a similar question on how to accumalate wealth.Really grateful to you for educating and sharing your experience.

      The idea of increasing number of stocks of the company you believe during each downturn and holding it long term similar to how you hold a RE mortgage never struck me until then.

      I completely understand that you have to take risk to get better returns than inflation.

      Most of the avenues with returns above inflation involves OPM(other people's money).Transparency was missing.Some other's loss becomes yours profit.I always feel threatened by the question what if things goes wrong? and what if the other person is you?It discourages me from taking bold steps/risks.

      You have radically changed my opinion about stock market.I had been thinking it as only a trading platform and also suffered heavily due to buy/sell tips that didnt work out.I never stood by a company's stock always switching and burning my fingers.Things got worse when I was stuck with stupid ULIP's and Theme based MF's.I realized half knowledge is dangerous, So have kept away.Once bitten, twice shy.

      Now I know about the market better, and hope to invest considerably soon.Thanks so much to you once again.

      Comment

      • #33

        #33

        Re : International Market: Where World Economy Going On ?

        Originally posted by nabishek View Post
        I share the same view.I hope the smoke clears soon on when exactly the stimulus will be exited and interest rate hiked substantially to control inflation.

        Supply side constraints should be dealt by punishing hoarders, Streamlining the supply chain by clearing road-blocks and introducing regulators.

        Somewhere deep down I also feel, all the above will remain wishful thinking.The government may just anounce another stimulus when growth is slow pushing inflation even higher.

        Have to see how they are planning to use the money from 3G auction and other disinvestments.
        Well said nabishek, hoarders should be punished but will that ever happen in India as all the hoarders have political background. Look what is happning in K'nataka

        And next thing specially with TN the Re1/kg rice has made all our workers lazy. Just imagine how much the govt is spending on this and color TV's. As a result of this there is a scarcity of workers all over TN and daily wages have raised many times.

        The daily wage of a mill worker in areas like palani, coimbatore is around Rs 250 per day and people are expecting it to go till Rs 500/day in next 3 years mostly due to the fact the subsidies provided by the govt and I think this will definitely help the inflation to remain where it is.

        I'm not saying there should be no subsidy but, free subsidies like wats happning now will ruin the small businesses and in the long term the economy.

        Just imagine what is going to happen if all states in India is going to give rice and wheat at Re 1/kg (most have started). I definitely feel these kind of subsidies will make people lazy and result in less people doing hard work. And when there is going to be labor scarcity, wages are going to rise, productivity is going to fall and the inflation will stay.

        Thanks,
        Sridhar

        Comment

        • #34

          #34

          Re : International Market: Where World Economy Going On ?

          Gotta question for you Wisey

          Wiseman,

          I'm just reading in economictimes that the attrition rate in Wipro for this quarter is 15.9%. We keep hearing news that the attrition rate is climbing in IT industry drastically. Does this mean that new job openings have come up? Or the companies are simply letting the people to go? Any views on this?

          Thanks,
          Sridhar

          Comment

          • #35

            #35

            Re : International Market: Where World Economy Going On ?

            Originally posted by wiseman View Post

            This is how I'm approaching the next few years..

            - Reduce all debts to ZERO! I started this in 2006 and went Zero in 2008.

            - Do not leverage to buy any asset since most favored assets (land, stocks) will see significant declines in value (obviously this will be only for short periods of time in India, but in the US they could take several years to come back to where they were in 2007 or for that matter even today. Buy only for cash

            - Reduce discretionary spending (postpone buying those fancy cars, high cost stereos, etc unless you are spending cash and that too after putting aside at least 1 years living expenses for emergency. This will be the toughest thing to do for our youngsters who started their careers running revolving credit on their cards by middle of the month

            - Do not go into long-term debt. 1 year debt instruments (FDs, etc) are probably optimal as Interest rates will be very dynamic

            - Put at least 15-20% of your longterm assets into investment (even at today's price). Foreign Coins (Krugerand, Sovereigns, etc are best). Also buy some silver

            - When markets crash, load up on high dividend yielding stocks with good performance. In the last crash, one could easily pick up good companies with 8% - 12% dividend yield, which is phenmenal as a starting position. Remember that, today, these dividends are tax-free in your hands (which will change with the new tax code) and over the next 5-5 years these dividends will grow to give you a yield of 15% - 25% on your original investment.

            Thats about it. On my part, I also put around 2-3% of my portfolio into highly leveraged speculation in Options which could yield (if you are lucky) returns in the 100s of percent. But this is not an easily available option (pun intended ) and I would not ask anyone to get into F&O as it is a most dangerous field.

            Any other ideas rom others will be welcome as I can add to my tools for financial growth!

            And most importantly, answering your question on stagflation. As money supply crashes (deflationary), credit will become very scarce and very costly (I believe it would easily surpass 90s interest rates of 15%-20% and we will see 20%+ interest rates). Couple this with even stagnating prices of assets along with stagnating incomes as salaries remain flat and real purchasing power of rupee declining and you are heading for some very hard times if you take on debt, especially very large debt (loans) in relation to your income and savings (assets). Remember that, until you pay off your last EMI the house belongs to the bank and in a stagnating price environment and low liquidity, distress sales will see you losing even your down payment if you are forced to sell within the first 5 years as interest takes up most of your EMIs.


            cheers
            Hi Wiseman,

            Thanks for you valuable advise, now I know what to do...which is exactly opposite of what you have written


            1. You are telling us to reduce all debts to ZERO. Tell me if someone in lower middle age(age 25-35) wants to buy a apartment or house or plot in Chennai today, taking a loan is only option to even afford that property. Not everyone is born Crorepathi to buy with full cash and ZERO debt.

            2. You are telling us not to go into long term debt. However for a younger person ( age 25 -35 ) long term debt is the best option. As you yourself said world is not going to end , a younger person can earn for another 20-30 years and his/her income will only increase in future ( given that India is still in the initial years/decades of economic reforms and we still have a lot of space to grow). Like you said India is 2.5% of world GDP today, but that is good news because India has potential to become 25% of World GDP by 2050, that means we will grow by another 10x times even if so-called developed countries stagnate. Given this potential and opportunity, a younger person in India can take a long term debt to buy property.

            3. I do agree with you on importance of savings and reducing discretionary spending. This is time tested advice. However too much savings and too much reduction in spending is also equally bad for the economy as well as individual (jobs).

            just my 2 cents.....

            Comment

            • #36

              #36

              Re : International Market: Where World Economy Going On ?

              Originally posted by roop78 View Post
              Hi Wiseman,

              Thanks for you valuable advise, now I know what to do...which is exactly opposite of what you have written


              1. You are telling us to reduce all debts to ZERO. Tell me if someone in lower middle age(age 25-35) wants to buy a apartment or house or plot in Chennai today, taking a loan is only option to even afford that property. Not everyone is born Crorepathi to buy with full cash and ZERO debt.

              2. You are telling us not to go into long term debt. However for a younger person ( age 25 -35 ) long term debt is the best option. As you yourself said world is not going to end , a younger person can earn for another 20-30 years and his/her income will only increase in future ( given that India is still in the initial years/decades of economic reforms and we still have a lot of space to grow). Like you said India is 2.5% of world GDP today, but that is good news because India has potential to become 25% of World GDP by 2050, that means we will grow by another 10x times even if so-called developed countries stagnate. Given this potential and opportunity, a younger person in India can take a long term debt to buy property.

              3. I do agree with you on importance of savings and reducing discretionary spending. This is time tested advice. However too much savings and too much reduction in spending is also equally bad for the economy as well as individual (jobs).

              just my 2 cents.....
              Hi Roop78,

              Wiseman's views are if a person is already in debt then he should come out of it. If you are a person who is planning to buy a new flat, then his views are wait for little more time and save. When the rates moderate in future you can use your savings to buy the flat with less loan.

              From your part, yes you are right, it's better to get a loan when a person is young and pay down the loan till he retires. It's a good logic. But keep the present scenario in mind. Still nobody is sure if it's going to be a quick recovery or a double dip depression or painful slow recovery. If it's going to be a quick recovery then your logic makes sense.

              But if it's going to be a double dip depression or a painful slow recovery then the salaries will either stagnate or decrease and there is also a good chance for the flat rates to come down and it will take years to reach the peak. But you are going to pay the EMI for the same amount what you got as loan.

              My views are wait a little more time to get clear view on the how the world economy is gonna react. Then make your decision.

              Just my 2 cents

              Thanks,
              Sridhar

              Comment

              • #37

                #37

                Re : International Market: Where World Economy Going On ?

                Originally posted by sridharchennai View Post
                Hi Roop78,

                Wiseman's views are if a person is already in debt then he should come out of it. If you are a person who is planning to buy a new flat, then his views are wait for little more time and save. When the rates moderate in future you can use your savings to buy the flat with less loan.

                From your part, yes you are right, it's better to get a loan when a person is young and pay down the loan till he retires. It's a good logic. But keep the present scenario in mind. Still nobody is sure if it's going to be a quick recovery or a double dip depression or painful slow recovery. If it's going to be a quick recovery then your logic makes sense.

                But if it's going to be a double dip depression or a painful slow recovery then the salaries will either stagnate or decrease and there is also a good chance for the flat rates to come down and it will take years to reach the peak. But you are going to pay the EMI for the same amount what you got as loan.

                My views are wait a little more time to get clear view on the how the world economy is gonna react. Then make your decision.

                Just my 2 cents

                Thanks,
                Sridhar
                well said sridhar.
                with the kind of uncertainty out there, i wouldn't recommend buying on loan. i think the rule of thumb is that, your net worth should be more than the debt. so in the event of a job loss or something, u should be able to pay off the loan and still left with decent cash.
                other thing i want to mention is that, as you grow higher it will be difficult to find a job even in a good economy.

                Comment

                • #38

                  #38

                  Re : International Market: Where World Economy Going On ?

                  That million in Rs please!

                  Originally posted by nabishek View Post
                  Thanks a million for the valuable advice.

                  You had said almost the same thing when once I had asked you a similar question on how to accumalate wealth.Really grateful to you for educating and sharing your experience.

                  The idea of increasing number of stocks of the company you believe during each downturn and holding it long term similar to how you hold a RE mortgage never struck me until then.

                  I completely understand that you have to take risk to get better returns than inflation.

                  Most of the avenues with returns above inflation involves OPM(other people's money).Transparency was missing.Some other's loss becomes yours profit.I always feel threatened by the question what if things goes wrong? and what if the other person is you?It discourages me from taking bold steps/risks.

                  You have radically changed my opinion about stock market.I had been thinking it as only a trading platform and also suffered heavily due to buy/sell tips that didnt work out.I never stood by a company's stock always switching and burning my fingers.Things got worse when I was stuck with stupid ULIP's and Theme based MF's.I realized half knowledge is dangerous, So have kept away.Once bitten, twice shy.

                  Now I know about the market better, and hope to invest considerably soon.Thanks so much to you once again.

                  Abishek,

                  I guess you are going overboard with the praise. Thanks for that!

                  Actually, luck and a modicum of humility are very useful ingredients in building wealth for the long term. Let me explain. Back in the 1980s, I spent as much time into learning finance and investments as I did . And I believed that I was above average in my investment actions. There are results to back it up.

                  But today, I believe that a lot of that had to do with the state of the world's economies in general and India's economic trajectory in particular. The world was experiencing a Credit expansion (printing of money without asset backing in gigantic proportions) as well as India opened up. These 2 factors created a giant multiplier effect that tld on corporate profits and eventually on our stock portfolios. Do not also forget that many Indian companies had huge cash hoards accumulated over the years which were simply sitting in their lockers. You know the rest about how these translated into an explosion in stock valuations which we benefited from simply because we bought stocks just before the boom and hung on.

                  Going forward, with so many investors ready to take even the pennies in profits, do not expect stocks to ever show the performance of, say, the IT companies in the 90s onwards or textile companies before that. MAybe pharma will do reasonably well, but remember you are already buying them at sky-high valuations and there is not much left for you. In addition there will be fiascos like DRL and Ranbaxy to beat your portfolio from time to time and bring it back to earth.

                  There is nobody on earth who can reccommend a stock to you on a 20 year timeframe saying this will do well. In fact on that time horizon, if you want to beat the normal returns, you have to buy small or midcaps and these are the most risky on the long term on historical basis. So, what is in your control is quantity (not price). If you periodically sell stocks when they have gone to too-high levels (this is known from P/E) and buy them back when they come down to too-low levels (again in P/E and dividend yield) your quantities will show a very healthy growth. I have grown stocks from 500 quantity to over 25000 quantity over 5-7 years and even if price remained a constant the growth rate in your wealth is significant (do not also forget that the dividends shoot up between 500 and 25000 shares and this alone is a bonanza). One day, due to whatever reason (company performance or stock market mania, or, if you are lucky both!) price will shoot up - remember, due to high-debt strategy Unitech went up from Rs 3 to Rs.582 in the last boom; imagine if you had accumulated 1 lakh shares for 3 lakhs!!! That day when price shoots up will be your payday!

                  In my analysis over the years, I found out 2 important pieces of knowledge. In bear markets Finance companies show the greatest falls (recently RE companies took over that mantle, but I think there is little difference between RE and Finance companies) and in boom times they show the greatest rise in price. Also, every 5 years or so, even the junkiest of junk companies (whose factories have been locked up for so long that even the machinery has rusted to dust) show phenomenal rise in prices. You can build a very profitable trade in this alone! Just giving you an example that in the stock market there are many, many ways to make money.

                  Good luck with your strategies.

                  cheers
                  Last edited July 24 2010, 12:06 PM.

                  Comment

                  • #39

                    #39

                    Re : International Market: Where World Economy Going On ?

                    My take ...

                    Originally posted by sridharchennai View Post
                    Wiseman,

                    I'm just reading in economictimes that the attrition rate in Wipro for this quarter is 15.9&#37;. We keep hearing news that the attrition rate is climbing in IT industry drastically. Does this mean that new job openings have come up? Or the companies are simply letting the people to go? Any views on this?

                    Thanks,
                    Sridhar

                    Hi Sridhar,

                    Back in 2000, when the markets crashed, there was a common quote by the leaders of IT businesses - the large ones. With regard to their forward outlook, they said, "the visibility is poor ...".

                    In other words they were clueless about what was happening outside of their own businesses.

                    Today, even after 10 years, they seemed to have learnt nothing much. Back in 2008, there was the height of job-witching and sky-high attrition rates. And much of this was the making of these predatory companies themselves (they talk a lot of HR but poach aggressively to suit their needs just the same; so they are huge hippocrites). Today, when this "recovery" seems to be happening (and you will hear a lot of defensive statements like "the IT business is rebounding and showing that the crisis has not effected it"), these bravehearts are al over the press showing how they have weathered the storm.

                    Truth is, IT companies have always relied on price arbitrage and not marketing of quality services to get work. Till the late 90s they did not even know what marketing was (Infosys marketing budget was 5% of turnover). So, in short, they are still clueless about the real state of economies worldwide and therefore subject to its vagaries. In fact, if you notice the recent results the greatest impact on good or bad (Mastek) performance is due to currency fluctuations and not their core business.

                    The next time markets crash (or "slowdown" is the polite word) and they realise that their bench is getting too large, they will once again come out with this "visibility poor" statements, start retrenching (or sending out people for "performance" reasons) and attrition will once again decline when fear and uncertainty returns. This should start happening in the second half of 2010.

                    Specific answer to your question:
                    TCS gave the following press release a few days back with their results ...

                    - Last quarter was probably the best going forward for the next few quarters
                    - We hired a total of around 2800 people last quarter
                    - This year we plan to hire 40000 people

                    Figure out from this if jobs are really rising in this scenario. In their best case 3000 * 4 = 40000! Unless, of course, they plan to ramp up their bench for the upcoming boom that even they do not see!

                    The IT Industry forecast on hiring/jobs only occassionally coincides with reality. Over the last few years they have figured that, if they trot out a figure between 40000 and 60000 hires for the year, punters will take their stock up by so many points (and so far I have NEVER seen even the highest paid analyst question the figures of go back and take a look on the accuracy of forecasting). Its a cosy world out there of "you scratch my back and I'll scrath yours" where companies tell convenient lies, analysts pick it up from there and window-dress the lies and the (greedy) retail investor gets suckered into buying high anf selling low. In between, MFs also jump in, show these rosy figures and further sucker retail investors to part with their money (forever).

                    cheers
                    Last edited July 24 2010, 12:46 PM.

                    Comment

                    • #40

                      #40

                      Re : International Market: Where World Economy Going On ?

                      Wish you the very best ...

                      Originally posted by roop78 View Post
                      Hi Wiseman,

                      Thanks for you valuable advise, now I know what to do...which is exactly opposite of what you have written


                      1. You are telling us to reduce all debts to ZERO. Tell me if someone in lower middle age(age 25-35) wants to buy a apartment or house or plot in Chennai today, taking a loan is only option to even afford that property. Not everyone is born Crorepathi to buy with full cash and ZERO debt.

                      2. You are telling us not to go into long term debt. However for a younger person ( age 25 -35 ) long term debt is the best option. As you yourself said world is not going to end , a younger person can earn for another 20-30 years and his/her income will only increase in future ( given that India is still in the initial years/decades of economic reforms and we still have a lot of space to grow). Like you said India is 2.5&#37; of world GDP today, but that is good news because India has potential to become 25% of World GDP by 2050, that means we will grow by another 10x times even if so-called developed countries stagnate. Given this potential and opportunity, a younger person in India can take a long term debt to buy property.

                      3. I do agree with you on importance of savings and reducing discretionary spending. This is time tested advice. However too much savings and too much reduction in spending is also equally bad for the economy as well as individual (jobs).

                      just my 2 cents.....
                      Roop,

                      In our younger days we were lucky. Due to a slow growing economy, salaries were low, prices of goods were reasonable (land, bikes. flats) and we were lucky enough to take small loans and shut them down quickly. To make things even better, asset prices soared, thus making some of us rather rich. Perfect scenario for buy low, hold on till it grows high!

                      Today, things have gotten a little out of hand. Salaries have become as high as they probably will (especially in the case of export industries where low-cost-high-quality competition is getting intense). While asset prices are sky-high and rising even further due to the greed of industrialists, the stupidity of consumers and the drastic fall in the real value of the Rupee. Perfect scenario for buy high, hold on while it stagnates in real terms!

                      This is the perfect scenario for things to go the other way. Salaries to stagnate/decline and eventually asset prices to decline over the years. This will take some time in India because demand is still robust and there is a large mass of consumers who are begging to be taken to the cleaners.

                      This is my position on debt and cash. You are free to choose.

                      Over the next 5 years, you can get into deep debt, see asset prices stagnate, see your ultimate price paid (including interest) go UP due to rising interest, thus making you asset even less of a bargain. You will constantly be short of cash, and with family expenses rising constantly, live a life of constant shortage and a have hunted look about you always. This is the NOW! world propogated by the marketers who want the 25-35 year-olds to part with their current money as well as their future money (whats debt?) so that they can have the latest SmartWhizzBang which plays music, video and also allows you to talk for 50k, the latest "home" with swimmingpool which is filled with Tanker water from a watertable that is reaching critical state; and all for a astronomical price! And you want all of it NOW, NOW, NOW!

                      Or, you can live within your means, accumulate cash for a time when asset prices are at their best bargain, buy substantially (or fully) in cash at low/stable interest rates and live a life of surplus with a relaxed look.

                      Either way, you will enjoy all the assets available to you (in one case, notionally in your name and actually with your bank till you pay the last EMI and in the other case, rented by you). Its just the frame of mind that will differ drastically.

                      You seem to have made your choice already. All the best.

                      And btw, Roop. In the best of times we have risen to 2.5% of global economy. How exactly do you propose that we will magically rise 10X times to become 25% of global economy? Can you throw some light on this? I think Manmohan, Montek and Rangarajan (not to mention our industrialists) would really be interested in figuring this one out!!!

                      cheers
                      Last edited July 24 2010, 12:56 PM.

                      Comment

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