I was just going through this headline in economictimes website "Stocks fall on US, China economic news" and I was wondering what is really happening in the world economy?

We see China posting slow growth (taunted to be the driver of world economy) USA still crawls, UK's debt mounting all the time and whatever our politicians say India is no better. Because I myself and my friends experience the difference of the present time and time we are flooded with offers in 2007. I can tell you one of my friend who has an experience of 5 years and working as a relationship manager is finding it very hard to even schedule a prospective interview for himself. And the hikes that are announced by most of the companies are only in paper's or in peanuts.

On the basis of current situation I'm actually wondering about two things about India.

1. The stock market keeps on rising - This increase is may be due to the fact that FII's are pouring in money. But china being a FII's darling has seen their stock market value coming down. But that does not seems to be the case with India. Is Indian stock market rising just because of FII's or Indian public is investing in stocks? Or Is India really immune?

2. Real Estate - I have heard and seen in most of Tamil Nadu that land prices have stagnated or have come down in a very few areas, but in most of the cities and towns the sellers are quoting those absurd prices with no takers, but still the sellers or hanging on to the price. Where it is all going to end? Will RE as whole (flats, land) survive this period or the imminent depression predicted by economists like Paul Krugman will sweep the world and India.

I would like to know your thoughts on it. I know there are people in this forum who say the RE is going to rise all the time and there people who say the RE will go down in short term. Let's see what we can get out of this thread?
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  • Originally Posted by sridharchennai
    Hi REUser,

    I ;ive in a upcoming city called coimbatore in Tamil Nadu. Even here I see lots of apartments that have either slowed down the speed of construction or have completed construction without any takers.

    Same way there is mall called FUN CITY being developed by ZEE Group. After 2.5 years of construction (they haven't even constructed 50%) I hear that they are planning to sell the property and move out. Seems the companies are slowly getting the real situation.

    Thanks,
    Sridhar


    Dear Sridhar,

    The RE price will not fall. And you know that the tax payers money is going to tax heaven countries (Swiss, Le) and the remaining money is in India Real Estate.

    Defence
    Telecom
    Spectrum
    Commen Wealth
    etc
    etc

    Long live Indian Netas !!!!
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  • Originally Posted by Siddhu
    Dear Sridhar,

    The RE price will not fall. And you know that the tax payers money is going to tax heaven countries (Swiss, Le) and the remaining money is in India Real Estate.

    Defence
    Telecom
    Spectrum
    Commen Wealth
    etc
    etc

    Long live Indian Netas !!!!


    Siddhu,

    As far as I know all over tamil nadu everybody knows the land prices have not come down due to some powerful families investing all their money in real estate all over tamil nadu. I see no Deja vu with small business in tamil nadu. Except very few people most of them are seeing negative growth.

    I strongly link the real estate prices of tamil nadu to results of coming state assemble election. A single jolt its all gone.

    Thanks,
    Sridhar
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  • Originally Posted by sridharchennai
    Siddhu,

    As far as I know all over tamil nadu everybody knows the land prices have not come down due to some powerful families investing all their money in real estate all over tamil nadu. I see no Deja vu with small business in tamil nadu. Except very few people most of them are seeing negative growth.

    I strongly link the real estate prices of tamil nadu to results of coming state assemble election. A single jolt its all gone.

    Thanks,
    Sridhar


    99% of all businesses(non corporate) are doing great,on what basis are you saying they are seeing negative growth,
    try acquiring a shop in prime commercial area(i am not refering to Tnagar,puraswalkam,etc) and you will know the demand.

    what jolt are you expecting,its either DMK or AIADMK. how will it affect RE,any party comes ,they make more(huge) money. where will the money go..... RE!
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  • Originally Posted by sridharchennai
    Siddhu,

    As far as I know all over tamil nadu everybody knows the land prices have not come down due to some powerful families investing all their money in real estate all over tamil nadu. I see no Deja vu with small business in tamil nadu. Except very few people most of them are seeing negative growth.

    I strongly link the real estate prices of tamil nadu to results of coming state assemble election. A single jolt its all gone.

    Thanks,
    Sridhar


    To me Chennai RE price was always looking too high (from 80's as far back as i can remember) The family you are mentioning was not in power.

    So you think when the powerful Thiruvarur family looses the election, The new powerful Manarkudi Mafia adopted family will not invest in RE?

    Yes there will be a portion of RE will be always bought by Politicians but politicians are not the only reason price goes up.

    Look at :

    1.the population growth, mass rural migration in to chennai.

    2. new factories & Infra like (Nissan,Hyundai,Ford,BMW,Dell,,Foxconn, Flextronic,New Ennore Port, New LNG Power Plant, Saint Gobin, JK, Apollo Tyres,etc,etc)

    3. KPO Industries.

    4. Medical/Health Industry

    Chennai is the only city that I have come across which has a population of 9 Million people living in a small area of 450 Sqkm (Corporation limit only 175Sq mts)



    There is lack of supply to meet the demand.

    More and more graduates and non Graduates from rural TN will continue there move in to Chennai.

    Inflation will also push wage cost that in turn will keep up the high RE price.

    No matter witch family or Friend is ruling they will also continue there share of acquiring RE (all over the country), Shares, companies (T.V, Airlines, Cement, Movie production)

    In fact news for you mate - for the last10 years the trend for TN politicians buy more than 50% of there property acquisition interstate (Mainly B’lore, Hydrabad, Delhi & Pune) where their Binami acquisition is not under scrutiny.

    So look at the real factors instead of dwelling on “urban myths” and “folk tales”.
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  • From 80s.... somebody may start the RE price trend in Chennai from the day's when Poonthamalli Nayakkar (palayakarar - who ruled the Chennai region in the 1600 AD) sold a piece of land to British East India company
    (St George Fort ???) !!!

    Price - high, low are related to demand and supply. Everywhere in Tamil Nadu the RE price is high.

    Yes, it is not one or two family (alternatively) buying the lands. We know the 1991 - 1996 period - the approach shown to get lands :(
    (many youngsters dont know about it). They did not leave even many dry lands. (tharisu nilam).



    And the current family and its allies.... younger one (all Tiruvallur district- binami), grand son (Sriperumbuthur & Coimbatore).

    Elder one - all south 10 districts money collections.

    Second life partner's first daugher - Banglore.

    Third life partner's second daugther - Beach road. Safe deposit Rs 10,000 crore in Swiss Banks. Thanks to Rainbow Spectrum !!!

    Yes, Cement, Car, Cellular service (remember RPG ?), Media, bar, Films, Airline etc etc.

    Remember...Once it was cell to cell calls tariff where lower between Kanyakumari to Chengalpattu. Chennai was ruled by this group.

    Remaining all doing Film making business (converting bad money to good money ?).

    There were 30 Private Engineering colleges and 10 govt Engineering collesges in the year 1992. (Many 15 owned by Malayalee's muscle men)

    Now around 500 private Engg colleges and the same number of Govt Engg colleges. Majority owned direcltly by MLAs, mins, MPs. Some are owned by their Benamis !!!

    Think... how much land required for a private Engg college. How much acquired by them.


    Engineering colleges, Medical colleges, other colleges in ECR, OMR, MAduravayal, Coovam bank, Avadi, Tirumalizai, Tiruvallur, Sributher, Vellore, Tiruvannamalai, Hosur, Kadpadi, Kadalur, Villuppuram,

    Pondicherry, Trichy, Karur, Madurai, Kovilpatti, Tirunelveli, Alankulam, Tuticorin, Nagerkovil etc. etc.

    -------- all owned by my Tamil Babus. I have short time memory loss. I missed a lot.. I think.


    Even they did not leave the dry lands in far away from Chennai (Tuticorin district).


    What I am saying is try to create more job opportunities in Tier II and TIer III cities..... and in towns.

    That will help our state to differentiate from Bihar, WB, Orissa, MP and Rajastan.

    And we all know what is happening in Bihar today. My worry is that should not happen in TN.
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  • Originally Posted by Economist
    To me Chennai RE price was always looking too high (from 80's as far back as i can remember) The family you are mentioning was not in power.

    So you think when the powerful Thiruvarur family looses the election, The new powerful Manarkudi Mafia adopted family will not invest in RE?

    Yes there will be a portion of RE will be always bought by Politicians but politicians are not the only reason price goes up.

    Look at :

    1.the population growth, mass rural migration in to chennai.

    2. new factories & Infra like (Nissan,Hyundai,Ford,BMW,Dell,,Foxconn, Flextronic,New Ennore Port, New LNG Power Plant, Saint Gobin, JK, Apollo Tyres,etc,etc)

    3. KPO Industries.

    4. Medical/Health Industry

    Chennai is the only city that I have come across which has a population of 9 Million people living in a small area of 450 Sqkm (Corporation limit only 175Sq mts)



    There is lack of supply to meet the demand.

    More and more graduates and non Graduates from rural TN will continue there move in to Chennai.

    Inflation will also push wage cost that in turn will keep up the high RE price.

    No matter witch family or Friend is ruling they will also continue there share of acquiring RE (all over the country), Shares, companies (T.V, Airlines, Cement, Movie production)

    In fact news for you mate - for the last10 years the trend for TN politicians buy more than 50% of there property acquisition interstate (Mainly B’lore, Hydrabad, Delhi & Pune) where their Binami acquisition is not under scrutiny.

    So look at the real factors instead of dwelling on “urban myths” and “folk tales”.



    Instead - The state govt may share 50% money with Southern Railways for connecting Pattabiram to Sriperumbuthur. And Sriperumbuther to Singaperumal kovil. And state govt can provide roads, drinking water, drainage facility etc to these areas ...and definitely people will start migrating to these areas.
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  • If you ask Tamils in any MNCs in Chennai...... 8 out of 10 will say they are not from Chennai. 2 should be from South Tamilnadu (9 districts), 2 should be from Tanjavur region (East), 2 should be from Covai region and 2 should be from Darmapuri to Viluppuram.

    May be 2 persons say Chennai as their native.

    For a BPO / KPO work... you don't need to be in Chennai. rite ?
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  • many points in siddhu's last posts sad but true...

    and there are many 'learned' people in this forum with lots of theories and graphs looking to Ben Bernanke for help in making sense of chennai RE
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  • It is the time we have to unite, it is the time we have to shout....

    See the Uma sankar IAS case...after so much of shoute.. he is unsuspended and given a post.

    I dont need to be his caste or his religion.... to support him.

    Join

    http://www.5thpillar.org/

    http://www.loksatta.org/sites/

    http://www.loksatta.org/tn/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=398&Itemid=148



    Makkal Sakthi Katchi (Tamilnadu unit of Lok Satta) organized 2 protests (June 20, July25) to condemn the vindictive actions of TN govt and to extend our solidarity to an Honest officer. Police denied permission for both the protests.

    Hence on 12th August, 2010 we organized a public gathering at Kerala Samajam Hall, Chennai, to condemn the wrongful suspension of Mr. C. Umasankar. We had good public response (500+ people particiapted) and Media Attention (Dinamani, Dinamalar, Hindu, Indian Express coverage). Nearly 20 non-profit organisations participated. Communist Party's (CPI) Senior leader Nallakannu Ayya, CPM's State Secretary G.Ramakrishnan, A.S.Kumar(CPI-ML), TamilAruvi Manian, Sivakami.IAS(Rtd), Devasahayam.IAS(Rtd), Mafoi Pandiarajan participated and spoke at this event.
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  • Hi,

    We should not worry about what Ben Bernanke says or what Pauk Krugman says or what Nouriel Roubini says or what Alan Greenspan says.

    We should think about our country also.. Our land, our Agri, our environment, the pollution etc, etc.

    I am not only earning/saving/investing for my future. I have save the Earth to my children and Grand children also. I can not spoil the earth for the sake of my intrest.

    In the last century there was a man called Mohandas K. Gandhi.

    He went to London on September 4, 1888.

    For what ? London tour ? NO.

    To get a barrister degree. Like our guys after their B.E they go to West for MS or MS after an MBBS :)


    And returned to India in 1891 after earning his degree.

    Then he went to South Africa in 1893......... For what ? African Safari ?

    No, to practice law and earn MONEY.

    Like our youngsters go to USA, Europe to make money.

    Gandhi worked with THILLAIYADI VALLIAMMAI for the Africans rights.

    But he returned to India in the year 1914.

    Somebody in the forum may raise a question... Why this idiot Gandhi did not return to India bit early and fight for us ?

    My question to all the Economists is (may be they know some History also)...

    How many Britishers were there in India when they were ruling our Country ?

    How many Indians fought for the freedom ?
    This is not related to Chennai RE. But please join any organisation which fights against corruption.


    Our corrupted money is 10 times more than our Budget deficit.

    Please join.. let us unite... let us fight for our future generation.
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  • Originally Posted by Digvijay
    No Sri, I dont think any body is denial or our PM doesnt know.

    Infact u ignored few very basic facts.

    Intrest rates around the world are at record low very close to zero, this is the case for all developed coutries. In India also the rates are intentionally kept lower.

    And why they are kept lower, just to make sure we dont go in deflationary spiral.
    In fact all the governments around the world are trying hard to push the prices of various assets.
    With such low rates the US and other Western countries were able to bring the inflation from negative ( May to Oct) in 2009 to postive by end of 2009 or start of 2010. But the problem is even with lowest possible rate, the inflation has again started falling from last 3 months. In fact they are near one percent only.

    But if the world goes into deflation spiral, India with all the problems will also follow the suit, may be little late.

    So Sri if you are ignorant about certain facts, it doent make any body super intelligent.


    for digvijay sridharchennai ans wiseman et alll. what happend to your deflation predictions ? is it still in the near future ?

    http://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/article832342.ece?homepage=true
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  • Originally Posted by sri_idea
    for digvijay sridharchennai ans wiseman et alll. what happend to your deflation predictions ? is it still in the near future ?

    http://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/article832342.ece?homepage=true


    Wiseman was just a doomsayer.

    Anything and everything that happened are going to happen was brings doom and gloom for Chennai RE. he is probaly waiting for one of those end of the world event.

    on the other hand.

    People like Natraj was expecting make 100s of crores in the next 1 year on couple of his chennai RE as he expects Chennai RE to reach the moon/Skyrocket in 12 months.

    It is hard to see people who have the patience and see Chennai RE as a "growth investments with cycles" and Chennai REs link to local micro economic growth, local Inflation,Supply & demand, Population growth, Indian Macro economy and INR valuations.

    The members who were predicting crash and Skyrocket all have vested interest.

    The crash/Dooms day theorist were unable to buy property so they vented their frustrations.

    The Skyrocket mob had invested/exposed to Chennai RE
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  • Too simplistic ...

    Originally Posted by Economist
    Wiseman was just a doomsayer.

    Anything and everything that happened are going to happen was brings doom and gloom for Chennai RE. he is probaly waiting for one of those end of the world event.

    on the other hand.

    People like Natraj was expecting make 100s of crores in the next 1 year on couple of his chennai RE as he expects Chennai RE to reach the moon/Skyrocket in 12 months.

    It is hard to see people who have the patience and see Chennai RE as a "growth investments with cycles" and Chennai REs link to local micro economic growth, local Inflation,Supply & demand, Population growth, Indian Macro economy and INR valuations.

    The members who were predicting crash and Skyrocket all have vested interest.

    The crash/Dooms day theorist were unable to buy property so they vented their frustrations.

    The Skyrocket mob had invested/exposed to Chennai RE



    Economist,

    Simply calling someone doomsayer and another one boomsayer :D is way too simplistic! And saying someone has a vested interest means you don't have any? :)

    I'm not talking in the air. I too have RE in Bangalore as well as Chennai and therefore, holding property while at the same time talking gloom means I'm trying to cover all bets since I have something at stake. So, your frustration theory is just empty words.

    If you think that whats happening around the world is not going to affect you, good luck to you. Some of us try to cast a wider net to see how the interconnected world has in store for us. You can keep looking at Chennai micro economics ...

    And simply sprinkling words like "micro economic growth, local Inflation,Supply & demand, Population growth, Indian Macro economy and INR valuations" does not mean anything. Can you actually weave these words into something that makes sense?

    Otherwise its just like picking words from a jumble randomly, putting commas in between, Capitalising some words randomely and trying to look educated ... If you have something valuable share it and we will try to understand!

    For starters, can you throw some light on where is Chennai RE in its micro business cycle considering current inflation rates, demand and supply for RE, net population growth and Rupee becoming stronger Vs the $$$ and weaker Vs G.old? Just wanted to know if you had a theory or simply using fancy words ...

    As far as I'm concerned, nothing has changed. The world was a giant bubble in 2007. It burst. Then, instead of letting economies take their natural course of deflation and removing excess debt from the system and then recover, people who took giant risk and created the bubble were bailed out at the cost of prudent savers. They have just blown an even bigger bubble - which is why Chennai RE prices are starting to rise; not because of genuine normal business-cycle rally.

    I have not changed my tune. We are merely on the up segment of a correction. When this bubble bursts it will be bigger, more people will lose jobs even in India and negative effect will be greater because people believed the Govt and jumped in with both feet at these highly inflated levels. Till then enjoy the temporary rise in RE price till the next hit comes as it surely will. Trying to warn youngsters who may not understand this and jump into high loan levels believing their salaries will keep on rising to cover huge and rising home debts when prices stagnate for years is something I consider my duty!!!

    cheers
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  • 100% agree with wiseman on this occasion. people talking fancy words do not necessarily make lot of sense (does it include him ?!!)

    forget all the marco and micro economics - with all the calculations and the technical jargon to go with it (which i have already confessed is above my head) someone comes up with a final conclusion - India will see deflation which will influence RE...(with enough riders and disclaimers to cover when they have to answer for them later)

    If the prediction goes wrong its quite normal to expect that they put their hands up and accept they went wrong (doesnt make them lesser experts though)

    or they could continue weave the same jargon-web to deny stuff
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  • Wise is an extremist, so is Nat.

    Wise wants the property market to crash so he will use any example to his argument (like decline in exports of Congo or volatility in share market in Iceland etc)

    Nat wants the RE price to hit the moon (So strong is his conviction - he doesn't bother looking for supporting verbiage)

    THE TRUTH IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TWO EXTREMIST.

    The Losers will be :


      Any one believing Wisemans prophesy and holding a property purchase for 2-4 years awaiting a crash to pick up bargains.



        Any one believing Nat and buying a property (with debts) today to sell it in 2 -3 years time assuming to make 200% profit.

        Even in today’s global village India is different – it has its own advantages & disadvantages.

        Historically both advantage and disadvantage of India has favored property owners (ie. disadvantages such as Inflation, uncontrolled population explosion, lack of decentralized town planning, Rural to Urban mass migration etc).

        India is not immune to crisis but the question is what will be the impact. One can run hundreds of economic models or simply refer to the biggest financial crisis India ever faced “1991 Indian Financial Crisis” Did the RE Market Crash? The answer is NO.

        The bottom line is “Don’t try to time the market” - it will result in pain, disappointment and lost opportunities.

        My experience has taught me diversification, cash flow and investment horizon is the key. You cannot and you should not time the market (making decision based on current market condition is not timing the market but making decisions based on predicting a future event is)

        Be aware of current market situation and look for affordable property that meets your needs in good location with potential and go for it.

        The exponential population growth, Inflation, supply constraint and INR devaluation will ensure you and your family will thank you making that wise decision.


        Time in the market is what matters not timing the market.


        Only speculators, property traders and brokers need to bother about what Wise & Nat has to say.

        If you don’t indent to buy and sell 5-10 properties a year you don’t have to worry about extreme views.

        Remember REAL ESTATE IS NOT SHARE TRADEING & PROPERTY BUYERS ARE NOT DAY TRADERS.


        Wise will wait for his dooms crash for another 20 years.


        Nat will keep hoping his 1 crorer will become multiplies 100s of crores.


        In the meantime all the sensible people will keep buying, selling, upgrading and investing in properties.
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