I was just going through this headline in economictimes website "Stocks fall on US, China economic news" and I was wondering what is really happening in the world economy?

We see China posting slow growth (taunted to be the driver of world economy) USA still crawls, UK's debt mounting all the time and whatever our politicians say India is no better. Because I myself and my friends experience the difference of the present time and time we are flooded with offers in 2007. I can tell you one of my friend who has an experience of 5 years and working as a relationship manager is finding it very hard to even schedule a prospective interview for himself. And the hikes that are announced by most of the companies are only in paper's or in peanuts.

On the basis of current situation I'm actually wondering about two things about India.

1. The stock market keeps on rising - This increase is may be due to the fact that FII's are pouring in money. But china being a FII's darling has seen their stock market value coming down. But that does not seems to be the case with India. Is Indian stock market rising just because of FII's or Indian public is investing in stocks? Or Is India really immune?

2. Real Estate - I have heard and seen in most of Tamil Nadu that land prices have stagnated or have come down in a very few areas, but in most of the cities and towns the sellers are quoting those absurd prices with no takers, but still the sellers or hanging on to the price. Where it is all going to end? Will RE as whole (flats, land) survive this period or the imminent depression predicted by economists like Paul Krugman will sweep the world and India.

I would like to know your thoughts on it. I know there are people in this forum who say the RE is going to rise all the time and there people who say the RE will go down in short term. Let's see what we can get out of this thread?
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  • Where to park the money ?

    I understand that it is not advisable for youngsters to get a huge amount of loan and invest on RE .But what is the experts advise to preserve the wealth for those who are cash rich ?
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  • My picks ...

    Originally Posted by Srinidhi
    I understand that it is not advisable for youngsters to get a huge amount of loan and invest on RE .But what is the experts advise to preserve the wealth for those who are cash rich ?



    - G.old, first and foremost (in investment grade coins, bricks, etc)
    - Stocks when they fall to levels which look cheap by comparison to today's
    - Short/Medium term debt instruments (since you want to take advantage of interest rate rise in the medium term future)
    - Land, specifically in prime areas which have clear title and easily saleable and paid for fully in cash

    At least 3-6 months expenses in actual cash in savings ot sweeping accounts

    cheers
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  • Originally Posted by wiseman
    Welcome back Blogger.

    cheers


    Kelambeetan yaa, Kelambeetan.

    Now Zimbabwe, Nalaiku Liberia, aparum Congo.

    Puraliya Kelapa, Room potu yosipangalo?
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  • Originally Posted by wiseman
    - G.old, first and foremost (in investment grade coins, bricks, etc)
    - Stocks when they fall to levels which look cheap by comparison to today's
    - Short/Medium term debt instruments (since you want to take advantage of interest rate rise in the medium term future)
    - Land, specifically in prime areas which have clear title and easily saleable and paid for fully in cash

    At least 3-6 months expenses in actual cash in savings ot sweeping accounts

    cheers


    Even blind Freddie can see is over valued and has peaked.

    Hi what about investing in candle and match boxes - when the dooms day hits there will be no electricity.

    What about stock piling canned foods.

    INR notes can be exported to colder countries for burning as chimney fuel when the doom day hits.
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  • Originally Posted by wiseman
    Welcome back Blogger.

    We too are sinking slowly. But since others are sinking faster, we look like we are rising! :)

    cheers


    Not all countries were battered by Global Financial Crisis.

    To name a few:

    China, Brazil, Australia,Singapore, Argentina and many Asian countries and sub Saharan African countries are just doing fine.

    May be Indian Goverment should build a Nova's Ark and put 1 each of doomsdayerss, Boomsayer,Spin master, Story writers, Verbiage spet and Long shot web spinners in the Novas Ark and when the world sinks in the dooms day flood they can be saved to reemerge to form a Boom Vs Gloom world.
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  • Which planet you visited in 2008-09 ...

    Originally Posted by Economist
    Not all countries were battered by Global Financial Crisis.

    To name a few:

    China, Brazil, Australia,Singapore, Argentina and many Asian countries and sub Saharan African countries are just doing fine.

    May be Indian Goverment should build a Nova's Ark and put 1 each of doomsdayerss, Boomsayer,Spin master, Story writers, Verbiage spet and Long shot web spinners in the Novas Ark and when the world sinks in the dooms day flood they can be saved to reemerge to form a Boom Vs Gloom world.


    China had severe problem of employment in 2008 and millions of people left cities to go back to their villages from where they came to seek work. Even today, a large chunk of GDP is from construction which is why China continues to pump money into construction despite having the largest SURPLUS in housing and commercial space in the world - even whole cities ... all empty! Check pictures of ORDOS below ...

    The Bovespa went from 73000 in April 2008 to 30000 by late 2008 and is back around 70000.

    Australia's RE bubble is considered even bigger than the US and almost as big as China's and out of reach for most Australians. Ready to burst again

    Singapore also suffered a large fall in 2008. Last quarter GDP fell by a significant 15% and this tiny country faces substantial volatility in its business environment

    Argentina continues to go in and out of Hyperinflation and is on the cusp of another now - along with neighbour Venezuela

    So, where did you disappear all these days? Or. do you think this kind of dips and volatility is Blue-sky economic behavior?

    cheers
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  • Interest Rates on the Rise

    Effect of Interest Rate Hike?
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  • I read thru this thread. Very interesting.

    Can someone enlighten me on just what has been happening in Chennai RE for the last 6 months? Have there been huge number of new launches like in Delhi NCR? Has the price appreciated? I am out of touch.

    I personally believe in 30% (in 30-60% range) stocks, 30% bond/FD (in 20-50% range), 30% RE (or RE equivalent stocks if your portfolio is small) in a 20-50% range and 10% g-old (in a range of 2-10%)

    I personally believe in always holding all 4 asset classes and only varying the proportions within the indicated range. Through 2000-2008 I was in 60% stock, 20% RE proxy (hotel stock only, did not like DLF etc) and 20% bonds/FD.

    For the uncertain times of today which Wiseman always takes pleasure in predicting (and I take great pleasure in reading) I prefer the maximally diversified 30-30-30-10 distribution. I am however still in the shifting process, currently only in 30% stock, 60% FD/equivalent, 8% in RE (booking) and 2% g-old ETF. I plan to reach my targetted allocation only by 2012. If all goes well. I plan to hold this allocation till global imbalances settle down.

    I would recommend it to one and all, adjusted for personal requirements.

    Rate rise will make for a price stagnation in Gurgaon and NOIDA. There will be slowdown in new bookings. Bank loan growth will slow and their stock price seems primed for a 10-15% fall.

    Rupee should firm a little more.

    We need to wait for the fed - if QE-2 is less than anticipated, dollar should strengthen and gol-d should fall.

    If gol-d falls 10-15% in dollars and Rupee dollar stays where it is, it would be a perfect g-old buying opportunity.
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  • The forum has been on long enough to catch all doomsayers and boom-sayers

    can anyone from the doom-sayers camp cite ..ONE ...Just one prediction which came true..if not its better to stop filling up space with charts and pictures
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  • At the current state of affairs no one would want a dooms day. Dooms day of the past were manageable and could be recovered back in a decent timeframe. As people have said in this post , the growth has been tremendous and unhealthy and it is beyond the control of the system. So, the growth going forward will be controlled and not reversed.

    But ...if the judgement day is inevitable and is being postponed ...we are awaiting a worldwide economic disaster...

    This thread is amazing with various views and point being discussed !!!
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  • home prices may fall soon?

    http://business.rediff.com/slide-show/2010/nov/03/slide-show-1-home-prices-may-fall-soon.htm

    its an article in rediff...which aims mainly at the no. of hits . but there is some substance even if there are lot of 'experts say' type of speculations.

    might be good news for prospective buyers if it happens
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  • Originally Posted by sri_idea
    The forum has been on long enough to catch all doomsayers and boom-sayers

    can anyone from the doom-sayers camp cite ..ONE ...Just one prediction which came true..if not its better to stop filling up space with charts and pictures


    Sri_idea- Good one.

    Basically i have observed that there are 10% people on this forum who believe that world will end in 2012(including Indian economy ) and 80% believe that what they are saying is true and they keep on discussing.
    Only 10% like u and me think this is crap and India will continue to BOOM. :D

    Lets think about our children and we will never feel that there is DOOM around:)
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  • Munish...about why there are people who like these doom and gloom theories - its all an interesting read basically isn't it ?. where else can you find info about china, singapore australia...read all the posts and your knowledge in geography will improve for a start.

    and you can of course update your knowledge about wheat price movement in congo, money printing practice in zimbabwe, oil companies in nigeria and weather patterns in antartica

    and finally all come to the conclusion 50% price drop in Indian RE 'shortly'. - Its nice to hear such pleasing things even if we know its crap -like people buying lottery ...just for the thought that this might be your last week at work!!. moreover talking about all complex stuff makes you look good (even posh)
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  • Not yet ...

    Originally Posted by sri_idea
    http://business.rediff.com/slide-show/2010/nov/03/slide-show-1-home-prices-may-fall-soon.htm

    its an article in rediff...which aims mainly at the no. of hits . but there is some substance even if there are lot of 'experts say' type of speculations.

    might be good news for prospective buyers if it happens



    Many of you might think I'm acting strangely contrarian.

    But I believe that we are going to see an enormous amount of money flooding our system because its being created right now and its looking at hurrying over here (from over there) since we are already in a much celebrated "boom"!

    This will not only delay the declines and crashes for several months out but may actually jump up prices of EVERYTHING and make us all poorer relatively.

    Second, sentiment in India has go extremely bullish and us bears out there are being hammered for keeping good, unsuspecting folks from getting into and profiting from this booming markets.

    So, this is NOT YET time for the coming crash. We need to see bullish sentiment become EXTREME, even the last bear will have switched over (well, not the very LAST since I'm around :D).

    It will be THEN that we get ready for the big one since the last Greater Fool will have bought into the BULL (pun intended)!!! :bab (59):
    cheers
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