I was just going through this headline in economictimes website "Stocks fall on US, China economic news" and I was wondering what is really happening in the world economy?

We see China posting slow growth (taunted to be the driver of world economy) USA still crawls, UK's debt mounting all the time and whatever our politicians say India is no better. Because I myself and my friends experience the difference of the present time and time we are flooded with offers in 2007. I can tell you one of my friend who has an experience of 5 years and working as a relationship manager is finding it very hard to even schedule a prospective interview for himself. And the hikes that are announced by most of the companies are only in paper's or in peanuts.

On the basis of current situation I'm actually wondering about two things about India.

1. The stock market keeps on rising - This increase is may be due to the fact that FII's are pouring in money. But china being a FII's darling has seen their stock market value coming down. But that does not seems to be the case with India. Is Indian stock market rising just because of FII's or Indian public is investing in stocks? Or Is India really immune?

2. Real Estate - I have heard and seen in most of Tamil Nadu that land prices have stagnated or have come down in a very few areas, but in most of the cities and towns the sellers are quoting those absurd prices with no takers, but still the sellers or hanging on to the price. Where it is all going to end? Will RE as whole (flats, land) survive this period or the imminent depression predicted by economists like Paul Krugman will sweep the world and India.

I would like to know your thoughts on it. I know there are people in this forum who say the RE is going to rise all the time and there people who say the RE will go down in short term. Let's see what we can get out of this thread?
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  • Originally Posted by wiseman
    Many of you might think I'm acting strangely contrarian.

    But I believe that we are going to see an enormous amount of money flooding our system because its being created right now and its looking at hurrying over here (from over there) since we are already in a much celebrated "boom"!

    This will not only delay the declines and crashes for several months out but may actually jump up prices of EVERYTHING and make us all poorer relatively.

    Second, sentiment in India has go extremely bullish and us bears out there are being hammered for keeping good, unsuspecting folks from getting into and profiting from this booming markets.

    So, this is NOT YET time for the coming crash. We need to see bullish sentiment become EXTREME, even the last bear will have switched over (well, not the very LAST since I'm around :D).

    It will be THEN that we get ready for the big one since the last Greater Fool will have bought into the BULL (pun intended)!!! :bab (59):
    cheers


    Now, the deflation theories seem to be shelved (or quickly forgotten) for now and new ones released!!

    Looks like you have the Crystal Ball and want to help people!!...why dont you tell us exactly when the prices will crash and by how much
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  • Will definitely let you know ...

    Originally Posted by sri_idea
    Now, the deflation theories seem to be shelved (or quickly forgotten) for now and new ones released!!

    Looks like you have the Crystal Ball and want to help people!!...why dont you tell us exactly when the prices will crash and by how much



    I will definitely try to be accurate to within 500 points of the Sensx!:D By the time the crash starts, volatility will ensure that 500 points is merely a single day's swing!

    After all, losing the top 500 points in order to save the next 10000 points is okay with you, right?

    Till then, be patient ...

    cheers
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  • Its a fact - doomsday predictions flood the internet - simply because the extremists like to keep repeating their chatter while sensible people like to keep quiet.

    Its also true that at any time at least 100 doomsday predictions are in existence.

    When doom comes, the guy who cried doomsday just the day before cries - I told you so - over and over again (Nouriel Roubini).

    But doomsday predictions are almost never right. Most doomsday predictions proliferate after the doom has already taken place (2008) and predict even more doom - which is bound to be a failed prediction.

    In any case, acting on doomsday predictions is extreme stupidity. Whether stocks or RE, one needs tobe sensible.
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  • Well said , Venky . I agree , doomsday predictions are almost never right.

    Originally Posted by Venkytalks
    Its a fact - doomsday predictions flood the internet - simply because the extremists like to keep repeating their chatter while sensible people like to keep quiet.

    Its also true that at any time at least 100 doomsday predictions are in existence.

    When doom comes, the guy who cried doomsday just the day before cries - I told you so - over and over again (Nouriel Roubini).

    But doomsday predictions are almost never right. Most doomsday predictions proliferate after the doom has already taken place (2008) and predict even more doom - which is bound to be a failed prediction.

    In any case, acting on doomsday predictions is extreme stupidity. Whether stocks or RE, one needs tobe sensible.
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  • Predictions - loads of rubbish

    Venky-
    IMO the so-called predictors talk a whole load of rubbish-
    more like a blind men trying to figure out an elephant


    they can shift their views from post to post and cover it up with lots more verbiage
    change their stance from hot to cold within days and pour out more mumbo jumbo which innocent readers could be mistaken for sensible opinions

    good time pass for everyone...
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  • thanks for telling nothing

    Originally Posted by wiseman
    I will definitely try to be accurate to within 500 points of the Sensx!:D By the time the crash starts, volatility will ensure that 500 points is merely a single day's swing!

    After all, losing the top 500 points in order to save the next 10000 points is okay with you, right?

    Till then, be patient ...

    cheers


    will it happen in 2011 or 2015 ? the crystal ball is not so great after all, is it ..?
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  • You are looking for Nostradamus, not me!

    Originally Posted by sri_idea
    will it happen in 2011 or 2015 ? the crystal ball is not so great after all, is it ..?



    You are being disingenuous (check out this word).

    While you keep criticising the predictions (simply because they have not yet come true), I bet you wouldn't mind following them when they do come true :D! This is called "trying to run with the Hare and simultaneously hunt with the Hound"

    What you are also looking for is completely clairvoyant, foolproof, Nostradamus-type prediction. Buy a Nostradamus book then ...

    Me, I look for most probably scenarios given current view of various factors and then try to figure out most-probable direction. Imperfect method in an imperfect world - thats reality ...

    It works more times than it does not. Most notably, it worled for me in March 2000, Dec 2008 and Mar 2009. It didn't work for me (YET) in Jan, April 2010 (when I sold portions of portfolio at then peaks), but I'm sure it will when the dust settles.

    And therefore it helps me do much better than I would buying, holding and hoping - sort of like getting into a boat (however well-built) without rudder or sail and hoping for the currents to push you in the "right" direction :D!

    Even if I too jump into a similar boat, at least I try to figure out future direction of the current so that at least there is a better than average chance of getting approx where I want to go.

    To each his own style of drifting around.

    cheers
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  • LOL-Good one wiseman.

    Originally Posted by wiseman
    You are being disingenuous (check out this word).
    LIKEWISE:)
    While you keep criticising the predictions (simply because they have not yet come true), I bet you wouldn't mind following them when they do come true :D! This is called "trying to run with the Hare and simultaneously hunt with the Hound"

    The same theory applies to all bears as well. While they keep predicting doom, simultaneously are making tons of hay while the sun is shining.

    What you are also looking for is completely clairvoyant, foolproof, Nostradamus-type prediction. Buy a Nostradamus book then ...

    HAHAHA. thats good.

    Me, I look for most probably scenarios given current view of various factors and then try to figure out most-probable direction. Imperfect method in an imperfect world - thats reality ...

    Alls well thats ends well is what matters in the end:)
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  • might help if anyone else can understand post no.123 and shed some light....or am i the only one who finds it vague !!

    I just use common sense to navigate my boat and has worked well for me so far -and i have no plans to try anything else

    unless there is a major natural calamity or war chennai RE will never see 50% falls.
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  • Very well said. This is what is precisely happening in this thread.

    I can't make out most of what is being said...with loads of verbiage, going out of context (but english is good so it makes it a good reading)

    I'm worried about genuine investers getting carried away by such posts.

    Originally Posted by sri_idea
    Venky-
    IMO the so-called predictors talk a whole load of rubbish-
    more like a blind men trying to figure out an elephant


    they can shift their views from post to post and cover it up with lots more verbiage
    change their stance from hot to cold within days and pour out more mumbo jumbo which innocent readers could be mistaken for sensible opinions

    good time pass for everyone...
    CommentQuote
  • Are there others too who don't understand post 123?

    Originally Posted by sri_idea
    might help if anyone else can understand post no.123 and shed some light....or am i the only one who finds it vague !!

    I just use common sense to navigate my boat and has worked well for me so far -and i have no plans to try anything else

    unless there is a major natural calamity or war chennai RE will never see 50% falls.


    Sri,

    How can you NOT understand Post # 123?

    Its as simple as 1 ... 2 ... 3 !!! :D:D:D

    And Blogger, how can someone get carried away by something they do NOT understand? I don't think folks on this forum are so stupid as to make investment decisions simply by getting carried away by some sophisticated-sounding verbiage! In any case, its time now to pronounce a DISCLAIMER ...

    Simply read my posts and take all decisions on your own. Also, since you take your own decisions, please also take FULL RESPONSIBILITY for your decisions!

    cheers
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  • People do get carried away.

    I got carried away in 2009 March lows of the stock exchange and failed to reinvest - at the bottom - because I was scared of the market falling more.

    Thanks to CNN Money, Marketwatch, Business Insider etc on which doomsday predictions proliferated. And the Indian media whgich did not predict Congress victory

    Somehow, I misjudged the risks and gave too much weight to adverse outcome - after it had already happened!!!!!!! Missed a chance to double my money in 6 months. Stopped reading American right wing and fox network related nonsense economics sites after that


    Still, I would be wary of too much BOOM talk - they are no different from DOOM talk.

    All this "India shining" crap and "we will be a superpower" crap is the kind of talk which scares me. I currently give this upmove max till March 2011. Sometime between now and then, some adverse move is bound to happen - from some global imbalance related effect.

    Even wars (when I last talked of wars about 6 months ago in the Chennai RE forum, people got wild. The risk weightage for wars has gone up and not down in the last 6 months)

    Still, every bull market climbs a wall of worries and lots of worried people is good news for the bull moves of today

    One can only wait and watch nervously
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  • Originally Posted by Venkytalks
    People do get carried away.

    I got carried away in 2009 March lows of the stock exchange and failed to reinvest - at the bottom - because I was scared of the market falling more.

    Thanks to CNN Money, Marketwatch, Business Insider etc on which doomsday predictions proliferated. And the Indian media whgich did not predict Congress victory

    Somehow, I misjudged the risks and gave too much weight to adverse outcome - after it had already happened!!!!!!! Missed a chance to double my money in 6 months. Stopped reading American right wing and fox network related nonsense economics sites after that


    Still, I would be wary of too much BOOM talk - they are no different from DOOM talk.

    All this "India shining" crap and "we will be a superpower" crap is the kind of talk which scares me. I currently give this upmove max till March 2011. Sometime between now and then, some adverse move is bound to happen - from some global imbalance related effect.

    Even wars (when I last talked of wars about 6 months ago in the Chennai RE forum, people got wild. The risk weightage for wars has gone up and not down in the last 6 months)

    Still, every bull market climbs a wall of worries and lots of worried people is good news for the bull moves of today

    One can only wait and watch nervously


    Such is life (market)

    If people can predict dooms and booms then there will be no free market.

    Invest in what is affordable.

    Take affordable risk (gearing)

    Dont try to time the market as it is not possible and will end in pain - may get away by fluke once or twice but on the long run trying to time the market results in pain.
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  • Originally Posted by Economist
    Such is life (market)

    If people can predict dooms and booms then there will be no free market.

    Invest in what is affordable.

    Take affordable risk (gearing)

    Dont try to time the market as it is not possible and will end in pain - may get away by fluke once or twice but on the long run trying to time the market results in pain.


    Could not agree more.

    Attempted timing always gives more pain than gain
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  • Seems nothing concrete has been achieved in G20 summit. china is going to keep the yuan undervalued and US is going to flood $$$$$. Where it is going to lead? A currency crisis?

    Thanks,
    Sridhar
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