|February 7 2011, 10:28 PM||#1|
Noida Expressway / D eway (gurgaon) / Neharpar area?
Noida Expressway, Dwarka-Gurgaon expressway and Faridabad Neharpar are the 3 spots in NCR poised to give good return in next 3-10 years. Would request the junta to pour their views on which of these 3 location can turn out to be a better investement in following time frames:
1) 2-4 years
2) 5-8 years
3) 8 years +
My analysis for these 3 location based on current situation:
1) Ready Expressway
2) Decent connectivity with Delhi (as of date)
3) Concentrated development along the expressway within 12 KM's od Mahamaya flyover
4) Work opportunities exist and coming up on expressway
5) Some what infrastructure exists for development along with expressway
6) People already living nearby (eg: ATS greens etc)
1) No infrastructure at all, just vilages and farms nearby.
2) Area is Totally dependent upon success of Dwarka-Gurgaon expressway for better approach
3) No commercial offerings as of now
4) If Dwarka expressway comes up, fast connectivity to Dwarka - but still who visits dwarka every day?
5) Hype about diplomats/embassies being shifted to this expressway.
1) Its confirmed no FNG to reach Faridabad
2) Solely dependent on Eastern Periphery Road to come up.
3) Faridabad is famous for not giving excellent returns
4) Not many corporates in service sector have presense in Faridabad
5) Neharpar area does not has excellent connectivity with Delhi/Gurgaon/Noida.
Whats your view on better place to invest in out of these 3 spots.
|February 7 2011, 11:15 PM||#3|
Noida Ex Way
Dwarka Ex Way - Looking at Gurgaon 2021 plan, dwarka ex way might be good place to invest in for next 5-8 years but I dont expect good returns before that. If you visit that place right now, you wont even think to see there again, but looking at the number of projects in the pipeline this area might come up with good returns. Also this belt has been sold to builders quite costly by farmers so the rate is already high (+ builders they leave no opportunity to make money)
Noida Ex way - there are few good projects like 3C and Logix but if you look at the number of projects that are in developing stage(they are almost 50 on just ex - way), and more are still coming, with in 2-3 years frame they might give OK returns but in long run, I dont consider it to be very beneficial as there will be too much of supply.
Faridabad - Why should one go there?? when we have Noida almost available at same rate.
|February 8 2011, 07:18 AM||#4|
Dwarka Eway - High Risk - High Return ... after 4-5 years if it really comes in 2 years from now
Noida Eway - Low Risk - Moderate Return ... both in short term as well as long term.
Nahar Par - No comment
Taj Eway - High Risk - Moderate Return
|February 8 2011, 09:40 AM||#5|
Important thing to note about noida exp way. While coming from delhi, projects on the right side of the exp way after sector 134 and onwards (135/168) are already launched and similarly, projects on sector 110 and onwards (137/143 with some exceptions to sector 143B) are more or less all launched. Overall 162, 143B, 144, 151, 158 sectors launches are left. Except for 143B and 144, all others may seem to be far off sectors.
For sectors before 134/110, rates are always going to be on the higher side (3200+ bsp), hence i believe this is a good time to invest.
Anyone who could throw light one expected supply on left side of the exp way (right side of the exp way except for jaypee projects are all launched already as per my knowledge).
|February 8 2011, 11:32 AM||#8|
|February 8 2011, 11:57 AM||#9|
For immediate resale of booking within 2 years, D Eway is best - it is the only area having a trigger for rerating. NOIDA is worst for booking resale, while Neharpar is not much better
1) 2-4 years:
D Eway. Immediate trigger, prices will jump (even within slowdown) when D Eway work starts. From 3000 to 4000 psf within one day.
2) 5-8 years.
D Eway. Hero Honda Chowk development and Manesar / DEway Metro line announcements will help appreciation. Area will start to develop and prices will reach Sohna Road levels
3) 8 years +
All are equally same, not much difference - because nobody projects returns into 8 years holding period except for own use. And for own use one looks at convenience and not for appreciaqtion. It is not possible to predict over such long time frames, there will be unpredictable events which will influence
I would rate as
DEway > NOIDA > Neharpar in total price.
Appreciation percentage would be maximum in Gurgaon, because while DEway price will approach Sohna Road levels, Sohna road will also have appreciated a lot more than 93B and Indrapuram, being used as benchmark for price estimation.
Long term price range (> 8 years) in today's price levels (not including inflation would be
DEway 6000 psf (current Sohna Road levels)
NOIDa EWay 4500-5000 psf (current 93B levels)
Neharpar 3500-4000 levels (current Indrapuram/ Crossings levels).
This means in current prices, Gurgaon is giving 100% returns, NOIDA 60-70% returns, Neharpar 50% returns based on booking price.
Keeping benchmark appreciation also in mind over 8 year period, Gurgaon Sohna road benchmark will probably give another 100% return, NOIDA 93B benchmark will give 70% return and Neharpar benchmark IP will give 50% returns. With inflation this will increase a lot more in unpredictable ways - but will be proportionate to indicative returns
SO in 8 years, DEway gives 200% returns, NOIDA 150% return, Neharpar 100% return.
The more that RE price inflation occurs for grade A property, the more will be the difference in return in favour of Gurgaon.
Every way you analyse, DEway is the best investment for now
|February 8 2011, 12:41 PM||#10|
The immediate/early start of the D e way construction is pretty crucial . If the commencement of the construction gets delayed by 2/3 years, all the calculations go for a toss .
Also the immediate appreciation from say 3000 to 4000, looks rather far fetched . I would expect, something like 10 % increase . This is more realistic, because, most of the current crop of builders on the D e way are small to medium players ( except a few ) & would somebody pay 4000 psf for say Sector 103 for an Era or a Siddhartha . I expect good appreciation for Sectors, touching Dwarka . Also, if these smaller builders end up with prices of 4000+, the better players with normal specs. would be quoting 5000, immediately on commencement of the D e way construction . This looks highly unlikely .
My PoV, many will not agree to it .
Noida e way, looks to be a safer bet currently .
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